According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 2nd to 10th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5157 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.76%. In January, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the terminal Baijiu factory started the pre festival stocking mode; Recently, the downstream chemical industry has also entered the pre holiday stocking stage. Boosted by favorable demand, the domestic ethanol market has stopped falling and rebounded.

On the cost side, the boost on the cost side is limited, and the lack of sustained upward driving force for raw materials cassava and corn. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remained stable, and the prolonged shutdown of Yushen equipment provided some positive support for the market. However, the supply of edible ethanol equipment nationwide remained relatively stable, with stable consolidation of spot goods. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, downstream liquor companies’ New Year’s Day has boosted market confidence in multiple dimensions. With the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new consumer demand has been released from terminals, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm has been greatly boosted, driving a better trading atmosphere in the raw material ethanol market. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

Future forecast: From the overall supply side, the spot supply of ethanol in the national market is relatively loose; From a demand perspective, the Spring Festival travel rush will start in January, logistics will gradually take a break, and downstream stocking may have entered the final stage. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.