According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market rose in December 2024. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9725 yuan/ton to 10800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.05% during the period.

Early this month: The domestic butadiene market has slightly rebounded, with poor arrival conditions in the East China region and tight supply expectations in the spot market. Boosted by this news, spot market offers have generally risen. However, downstream demand remains weak, with poor purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Overall, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized during the week, while Sinopec still implemented a price of 9800 yuan/ton.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market continues to rise, and the overall available supply in the spot market is tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices, and spot market quotations are generally on the rise. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities gradually decline. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized this week, and Sinopec raised it to 10900 yuan/ton.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly during this cycle, and market prices experienced a slight correction. As prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities are gradually declining. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has shown a high volatility trend this cycle, and Sinopec still maintains a price of 10900 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated and strengthened this month, with prices overall rising during the cycle, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of December 30th, international crude oil futures have risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.99 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.39 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 31st, which is 1100 yuan/ton higher than the same period last week’s 9800 yuan/ton. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: The domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has shown an overall upward trend in this cycle, but the increase is limited. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has experienced a wide decline in this cycle. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, while the price of styrene slightly decreases, providing support for the cost of styrene butadiene rubber. Downstream all steel tire production has slightly increased; The production of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been raised, and as of December 23, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14850~15200 yuan/ton.

External market: The butadiene external market rose in December, and as of December 30th, the closing price of butadiene external market: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1205-1215 US dollars/ton; China CFR reports $1255-1245 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $975-985/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 985-995 euros/ton.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene will be tight in the near future, with limited port sources, and market sentiment remaining strong. From the perspective of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, and due to poor profits, production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the butadiene market. Overall, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for the butadiene market to continue to rise. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, and it is expected that market prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the production of new facilities and the arrival of ports.