High volatility of ethylene glycol prices in December
The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4671.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.
In the morning session, spot contract traders had weak trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, resulting in weak market trading. At present, the 01 contract is gradually entering the delivery month, with high basis shipments being the main focus.
On December 24th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4280 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On December 23, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $544/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.
There has been an increase in import production
Taiwan’s South Asia No.1 360000 ton plant is scheduled to restart in early December, while Saudi Arabia’s JUPC 640000 ton plant is planned to restart by the end of December, with overseas production expected to gradually increase. The recent market rumors of an energy crisis in Iran that may affect import quantities are yet to be verified.
Domestic supply is in an upward phase
Domestic supply, especially with the return of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, coupled with the incremental release of production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. There is an increase in domestic supply. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply of coal to ethylene glycol and the production of raw material ethylene, domestic supply is in an upward phase.
The dependence on domestic ethylene glycol imports has decreased
The dependence on imported ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing with the release of domestic production capacity. Recently, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol has been relatively low. On the one hand, this is because the port inventory does not include the hidden inventory of domestic production areas and factories. On the other hand, it is also because downstream manufacturers had sufficient stock at low prices in November, and the port has been affected by weather recently, resulting in delayed unloading due to port closures. With the gradual unloading and arrival of ocean going large ships, the explicit inventory is also expected to rebound.
Downstream demand is expected to weaken
In December, the domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream loading and weaving load of the terminal continues to weaken, and the autumn and winter orders of the terminal are lower than expected. There have been inquiries and orders for spring orders, but the overall order volume is showing a downward trend. Due to the impact of annual leave, terminal manufacturers will gradually enter a state of production reduction, shutdown, and holiday shutdown, and polyester will gradually enter a state of accumulated inventory. Recently, downstream filament and splicing factories have gradually begun to release maintenance plans, and there are signs of a decline in downstream operating rates. The overall demand for terminals is expected to weaken.
Future expectations
The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, recent crude oil prices have been at a low level, with relatively insufficient cost support. Domestic coal prices are in a downward trend, and coal to ethylene glycol has cost advantages. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |