In November, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7537 yuan/ton on November 1st and 7787 yuan/ton on November 30th, an increase of 3.32%.

In the first half of the month, social inventory was low, import and domestic shipping arrivals were insufficient, spot supply was tight, trading contract costs were high, and there was a strong sentiment of pushing prices high. Under the operation of pushing prices upwards, the terminal was passive in replenishing essential goods, and many small orders were followed up with transactions. The downstream factories have insufficient purchasing power, and the supply strategy is to offer discounts for shipment.

In the latter half of the year, Qingdao Bay and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the situation of tight cargo is expected to worsen. As a result, traders’ intention to push up prices is expected to increase, and the focus is steadily moving upwards. In the market’s favorable situation, factory quotations have also been raised multiple times to help. As prices continue to rise and the end of the month approaches, the pressure on contract customers to ship is not significant, and the room for concessions is limited, resulting in a weak market ending.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

In terms of supply, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port is 10000 tons, including 3000 tons in Hengyang and 7000 tons in Huaxi. In terms of equipment, Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance from October 10th to November 21st; Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down on November 1st, expected to last for one month; Lihua Yiwei Yuan Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance from November 1st to 7th; The phenol ketone plant in Qingdao Bay will be shut down from November 18th to 24th; Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down from November 19th to 27th.

From the perspective of demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on buying for essential needs, and are cautious in pursuing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 7700-7800 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will be narrow and weak in December. In December, all domestic phenol ketone plants have been restarted, and there is no clear news of shutdown or negative load reduction. Supply expectations have increased, and the import shipping situation can be focused on during the month. The overall supply increase may have a bearish constraint on the market. It is expected that the phenol market will weaken in December, and considering costs and profits, the decline is not significant.