According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 20th to 27th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2549 yuan/ton to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.07%. The domestic methanol market continues to operate strongly, with some companies continuing to sell at high prices and transactions remaining acceptable.

As of the close on November 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2612 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2613 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2571 yuan/ton. It closed at 2583 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.81%. The trading volume was 739781 lots, the position was 682672 lots, and the daily increase was -62332 lots.

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, the inventory of thermal power plants remains high, and there is no possibility of large-scale coal hoarding in the short term. Even a small amount of rigid demand cannot drive a sustained strong rebound in coal prices, and the weak demand side has led to a continued stalemate and instability in the market. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid will continue to increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. Most downstream products have increased their demand for methanol, which is influenced by favorable factors on the demand side.

On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 26th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 424.00-425.00 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Future forecast: In the near future, attention should be paid to the domestic and international gas restrictions, the shutdown of multiple sets of olefin plants due to load reduction, and the impact of macro news. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will strengthen and consolidate.