1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4180 yuan/ton. In early November, the DMF market price showed a step down trend, and the problem of oversupply in the DMF market became apparent. Operators were cautious and cautious, lacking confidence in the future market. Upstream methanol prices remained stagnant and consolidated, with high inventory pressure, which limited the support for DMF production.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: After November, the upstream methanol market of DMF continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the overall market operated in a volatile manner. Downstream demand for methanol continued to rise, and there was still pressure on methanol inventory. In November, methanol plants were newly put into operation, with 2.8 million tons in Inner Mongolia and 250000 tons in Shanxi. The new production was reflected around the end of November. Currently, manufacturers are actively shipping, and terminal demand is weak, resulting in a lack of follow-up mentality in the methanol market where price cutting procurement is the main focus.

In terms of demand, DMF has a wide range of downstream applications, with PU accounting for 54%. It is widely used in polyurethane coatings and synthetic leather, with the electronics industry accounting for 20% and the pharmaceutical industry accounting for 11%. Currently, the DMF market has a relatively sufficient supply, but with the rapid development of the domestic electronics industry, it will drive an increase in demand for high-purity DMF. The overall DMF market is currently in a state of oversupply.

Competitive landscape: DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, and domestic small capacity enterprises are gradually being eliminated. Currently, several well-known DMF enterprises in China have become the main force, and their competitive trend is mainly reflected in advanced production technology, stable product quality, etc. With the increase of environmental protection efforts, reducing pollutant emissions in the production process, improving resource utilization, and enhancing production efficiency, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.

In terms of inventory: DMF inventory remained relatively high in November, and enterprise installations began to operate one after another, resulting in an increase in market supply. Downstream demand did not meet expectations, with phased replenishment being the main focus. Demand performance was average, and there was pressure on enterprise inventory, with limited room for market price increases.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current average price of DMF in the market is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton. With the gradual operation of facilities, the market supply continues to increase, and downstream demand support is limited. Inventory remains at a high level, making it difficult to consume in a short period of time. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders. In the short term, the DMF market price trend will maintain a narrow and weak trend.