In July 2024, the trend of the upstream raw material caprolactam market for nylon filament was not good, and the downstream purchasing willingness was not strong. The support from both the cost and demand sides was weak, and the inventory level in the market increased. Some nylon filament manufacturers operated under reduced load, resulting in a downward trend in nylon filament market prices.
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Market price trend
In mid to early July, due to the continuous decrease in the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam, the market for PA6 sliced high-speed spinning slices experienced a significant decline, and there was a lack of favorable support on the cost side. In addition, the end market was in the off-season of demand, and downstream manufacturers were not enthusiastic about purchasing, so they restocked on demand. The demand side performance was poor, and the speed of on-site shipment slowed down. Under the dual negative factors, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline. Entering the latter half of the year, there has been little change in the market prices of raw materials, while the cost side support is relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain sporadic rigid demand orders, and the trading activity in the market is average. The nylon filament market prices are operating steadily.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament decreased in July. As of July 31, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton or 2.41% from the beginning of the month. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.40% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 1.99% from the beginning of the month.
Weak decline in raw materials
In terms of cost, the cost center of gravity continued to decline during the month, and the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam fell significantly, with a monthly decrease of 3.78%. The market price of PA6 high-speed spun slices has significantly declined, and the market price of raw materials has dropped significantly, with a monthly decline of 1.36%, and there is a lack of cost support.
Supply demand: In July, the overall supply of nylon filament market increased narrowly. During the month, most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating stably, with some manufacturers reducing their facility loads due to increased inventory. However, 50000 tons/year nylon filament facilities were gradually put into operation in Hubei at the beginning of the month, resulting in an overall increase in on-site supply. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and the speed of on-site trading has slowed down. The trading activity is average, and the market is seeing a warming atmosphere.
Future forecast
In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices on the cost side is relatively stable, and the supply of caprolactam on site may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side support is average, and downstream markets are cautious about slicing purchases. The demand is urgent to follow up, and the overall operating level of the PA6 slicing market is high. It is expected that the PA6 slicing market will continue to decline next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost support for nylon filament will be insufficient next month.
At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the on-site supply is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers have poor shipments, and coupled with the hot weather, some manufacturers have plans to reduce their equipment load in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will slightly decrease next month.
In August, the downstream market was still in a low season of demand, with limited procurement of raw materials and insufficient support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream nylon filament manufacturers will continue to follow up as needed next month.
Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak. The cost side support for nylon filament is weak, and the demand side will continue to be weak. Downstream manufacturers may still purchase on demand. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in August will follow the weak trend of raw material consolidation, and market prices will mainly decline narrowly.
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