This week, the lead market (5.20-5.27) showed a fluctuating trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 18540 yuan/ton and this week at 18415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve convey a hawkish attitude, suggesting that the possibility of future interest rate hikes still exists, leading to a strong rebound in the US dollar index. On Friday night, the US dollar index closed down 0.27%, ending the previous four consecutive gains. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released this week show a change in market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut, after the decline in inflation had led to widespread market expectations for a rate cut to be implemented in September.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with many primary lead enterprises undergoing maintenance recently. The production of primary lead enterprises is low, and the supply of lead ingots is tight; Recently, the raw material procurement situation of recycled lead enterprises has improved, and the operating situation has increased compared to the previous period. The supply of recycled lead has improved, and the supply of lead ingots has improved compared to the previous period, but it is still tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: The macro market performance has been weak in the near future, and lead prices have followed the downward trend of the overall market. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. Under the boost of supply tightness, lead prices will continue to maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the macro impact on market sentiment.

Industry data:

On May 26th, the base metal index was 1370 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 113.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 26th, the non-ferrous index was 1250 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.73% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 105.93% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were antimony (5.57%), cobalt (4.59%), and zinc (1.76%). There are a total of 19 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were metal praseodymium (-6.51%), praseodymium oxide (-5.49%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-4.50%). The average increase and decrease this week is -1.64%.