Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined since April. On the 16th, the market reported around 13320 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it reported around 13440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, fuel prices have risen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has risen. Currently, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly weak and consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased. On April 16th, the price of loose water in the acrylonitrile market was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.14% from 9962.50 yuan/ton on the first day. As of April 16th, the mainstream price for self pickup of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10200 and 10500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost continues to support acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production remains low, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units has slightly declined, providing some support for the acrylonitrile market.

Raw material acrylic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylic acid market is on the rise. As of April 16th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China is 6825.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, and cost pressure has increased. Some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance, and spot prices are tight, supporting the market’s price mentality. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic liquefied natural gas market rose in the first half of April. In some areas, maintenance of liquid plants has led to a decrease in market supply, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand.

Technical prediction: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, polyacrylamide will experience a downward trend after the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average after March 31, 2024. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 35.16%.

At present, the price monitoring of polyacrylamide is at a one-year low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of polyacrylamide in the past three years is 15143.23 yuan/ton, with a median value of 15735 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 13220.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18250.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 100 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (the highest price difference in the past three years) is -4930 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid will rise, fuel prices will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will rise. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week, and the market supply was sufficient; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that weak consolidation of polyacrylamide in China will be the main trend in the near future.