According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha has continued to rise this week. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8341.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 11th’s 8251.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

This week, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8234.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from March 11th’s 8129.00 yuan/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8200 yuan/ton.

This week’s rise in international crude oil prices supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for gains. However, there was a lack of substantial positive news at the end, and market trading was mainly focused on the restructuring of local refineries. The market mentality was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose this week, and the cycle began. The Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased, with high levels of toluene port inventory continuing, and supply pressure still remaining; The mixed xylene market has slightly increased, while the mixed xylene port inventory has slightly decreased, and supply pressure remains; The price trend of PX is stable, and the domestic supply of xylene is stable. The domestic operating rate of PX is maintained at over 80%.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating at a high level, with cost support in the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.