According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of February 29, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1682.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% from 1670.00 yuan/ton on February 26.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating in recent times, with a significant increase in crude oil prices during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, the crude oil market is mainly fluctuating in the range. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; The total number of oil and natural gas drilling rigs of state-owned energy enterprises has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and crude oil prices have been suppressed.

On the supply side, the price of petroleum coke fluctuated this week, with downstream rigid demand procurement supporting the price of petroleum coke; The shipment of imported sponge coke is stable, and traders mainly execute orders.

On the demand side: As of February 22, China has started operating 308 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall furnace opening rate of 41.1%, an increase of 1 furnace compared to last week. This week, the situation of industrial silicon furnace opening has stabilized, and the market is still in the post holiday recovery period. Enterprises are basically starting production according to the pre holiday scale, and the number of starts will gradually increase. The supply is expected to increase this week. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, sulfur calcined coke remained stable, with average transactions. Downstream demand release was relatively slow, and the operation of the calcined coke market was cautious.

This week, aluminum prices have slightly increased, and the traditional peak consumption season is approaching. Downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity and operating rate of China’s leading aluminum downstream industry enterprises are expected to rise. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises still have a demand for petroleum coke, and multi-dimensional support is needed for procurement.

Market forecast: In March, the coking plant in the refinery will enter the peak maintenance season, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries may decrease; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will slightly increase in the near future.