According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 20th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from December 11th at 1720.00 yuan/ton.

Cost side: International crude oil rebounded after falling. The unexpected rise in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut early next year, coupled with concerns about oversupply; The results of the OPEC+production policy meeting did not meet market expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may come to an end, but there is still a possibility of further rate hikes; The weakening of the US dollar has boosted oil price valuations, coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand.

Supply side: Recently, the import ships of petroleum coke have concentrated at the port, causing the cost of sponge coke to be inverted. The shipping sentiment of traders is average, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke at the port has increased. Recently, the rainy and snowy weather in the north has affected logistics, leading to an increase in the price of ground refined medium sulfur petroleum coke. In addition, the supply of medium sulfur petroleum coke is relatively tight, and downstream demand still exists, resulting in a continuous increase in the price of petroleum coke; The supply of high sulfur petroleum coke is sufficient, the demand is limited, and the overall price is declining.

On the demand side: As of December 14th, there were 364 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 48.53%, a decrease of 11 furnaces compared to the previous period. Among them, there is a decrease of 1 unit in Xinjiang, 5 units in Yunnan, and 6 units in Sichuan. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decline, the operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and the northern environmental protection inspection shuts down for insulation. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, while the price of raw petroleum coke has risen. Currently, the demand for aluminum carbon in the market is still acceptable, and the shipment of medium sulfur trace amount calcined coke is stable; The demand in the negative electrode market is weak, which provides weak support for the price of medium sulfur conventional calcined coke market. Currently, the overall weakness of medium sulfur calcined coke is mainly consolidated.

At present, the market for electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, with prices as of December 20th at 18987 yuan/ton. The National Development and Reform Commission has stated its intention to increase efficiency and promote economic development, increase macroeconomic regulation, and spot aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive times. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall petroleum coke market in the local refining industry remains stable, with the end of rainy and snowy weather and the basic recovery of logistics in various regions. Refinery shipments have improved, and downstream demand is still acceptable. We will gradually replenish goods to support the price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry. However, there is currently sufficient inventory of petroleum coke in the refineries, and it is expected that the local refining industry will mainly consolidate in the near future.