According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 17th to November 24th, 2023, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar slightly increased, with a price of 4417.5 yuan/ton on the 24th and 4350 yuan/ton on the 17th, an increase of 1.55 yuan.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a slight increase this week.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: The overall operating rate of coking enterprises has declined, and supply has contracted compared to the previous period

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the overall operating rate of coking enterprises has recently declined. With the rise of raw material coking coal prices this week, the overall cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises is relatively high. Under the influence of profits, some enterprises have actively limited production. Jiao enterprises have started a second round of price hikes, but under the mentality of supply and demand competition, it is difficult to implement, and the supply of tar is tight compared to the previous period.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market is mainly wait-and-see

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in November, it can be seen that the prices of related commodities in the domestic deep processing industry have fluctuated this week, and market demand support is slightly weak. After November, three rounds of auction prices have all declined, except for this week when tar auction prices in some regions have slightly increased due to the tight supply of tar, while prices in some regions have remained stable or failed to sell. However, the fatigue in the downstream market has not significantly changed, and the overall demand support in the market is still slightly insufficient. Overall, there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the future market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main focus. The price trend of deep processing related commodities still needs to be closely monitored in the future.