1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of November 10th, the spot nickel quotation was 142850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 29.26%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 9 times and risen 2 times, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

On the supply side, multiple institutions have given predictions that the surplus of primary nickel will continue to exceed 200000 tons next year. In October 2023, the total domestic refined nickel production was 23355 tons, an increase of 0.82% month on month and 49.48% year on year; From January to October 2023, the cumulative production of refined nickel in China reached 198122 tons, an increase of 36.17% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refining nickel enterprises is 28667 tons, the operating capacity is 26667 tons, the operating rate is 93.02%, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.47%.

In terms of demand, the consumption of ternary precursors is poor, resulting in a decrease in production scheduling. In November, the domestic crude stainless steel production was 2.959 million tons, a decrease of 9.42% month on month and 5.88% year on year. Among them, the 300 series production was 1.405 million tons, a decrease of 10.31% month on month and 12.23% year on year.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, Federal Reserve officials spoke with a hawkish tone, coupled with the weak nickel fundamentals that have not yet improved. Recently, there have been signs of depletion of LME inventory, but in the early stage, the decline of Lunni was rapid, and the domestic nickel valuation was relatively high. The recent appreciation of the RMB has put pressure on domestic nickel. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.