According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 9275 yuan/ton to 9516 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.60% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 9.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 33.16%.

The domestic butadiene market has slightly increased. Some early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, and there has been a slight increase in port inventory. The spot supply has slightly increased, but the factory prices of production enterprises have been strongly pushed up, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. The downstream synthetic rubber industry is still operating well, with some support from the demand side. With some bidding sources increasing prices and transactions, the market price of butadiene continues to rise.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and sorted out. As of the close on November 3rd, the international crude oil futures prices have closed down, with the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract at 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The strong performance of the US dollar will have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply tension has not improved, mainly due to concerns in the Middle East region, and the risk of oil supply has not yet been lifted. The demand side will be dragged down by the economic outlook. The future game between supply and demand will intensify. Overall, oil prices will remain high and volatile in the near future, and the amplitude may continue to expand.

In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is weak and has been sorted out. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 7939.00 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and the restructuring lacks substantial benefits. A small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released, and the overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak. Trading is sluggish, and refineries are reducing prices for shipments. The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton. The 64000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal has been operating steadily, with a small amount of goods available for export. The price has been reduced by 150 yuan/ton to 8950 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, although the downstream Ineos Benling 600000 tons/year ABS device is put into operation, the total production capacity of the ABS industry has increased to 7.705 million tons/year. However, due to the load reduction and shutdown of devices such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Huizhou Li Changrong, the capacity utilization rate of the SBS industry decreased by 7.41 percentage points month on month. The demand side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

On November 3rd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1025- $1035 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1055 and $1065 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $745-755 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 695-705 euros per ton.

According to future predictions, the short-term trend of the domestic butadiene market is still relatively strong, which is mainly boosted by supply side news. With the support of high supplier prices, it is difficult for the market to have a batch of low-priced goods to supplement. However, profits in some downstream industries are under pressure, and market transactions also suppress the market. Business Society butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may enter a stalemate and consolidation stage.