1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride first fell and then rose in October. The price of potassium chloride first fell from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2875.00 yuan/ton on October 18th, a decrease of 4.17%, and then rose to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.22%. On October 30th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 95.24, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.45% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 63.50% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors fell first and then rose this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was around 2900-2950 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton; 60% of the red particles in the port are around 2950-3000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 50 yuan/ton; Border trade of 62% Russian white potassium is around 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of approximately 3.2-3.3 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this month, from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7420.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.72%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 19.78% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this month, from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 13.18% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream manufacturers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The trend of potassium chloride market in mid to early November may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Winter storage is approaching, downstream agricultural demand is expected to increase, industrial demand is average, and potassium chloride prices may fluctuate and rise in the future.