1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak in October. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 3090 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was around 2550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 17.48%, a decrease of 4.14% compared to the same period last year. On October 26th, the light soda ash commodity index was 130.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 30.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 107.08% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak this week. Currently, the operation of soda ash in the East China region is stable, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2600-2800 yuan/ton. The operation of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2500-2700 yuan/ton. The operating rate of caustic soda is currently around 88%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.41 yuan/square meter, while at the end of the month, the average price was 23.31 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 0.43%. From a regional perspective, the trading situation in the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is average, with manufacturers mainly relying on flexible shipping, and enterprise inventory has increased. The market trading situation in the East China region is relatively good, with downstream demand for goods and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The overall production and sales in the central China region are average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not as strong as last week. The inventory of manufacturers has slightly increased, and the market transactions are relatively flexible. The production and sales situation of glass in South China is still good, and the middle and downstream markets are just in need of restocking, leading to a decrease in enterprise inventory. The production and sales in the southwest region are average, with a slight decrease in inventory. The glass market in the northwest region is average, and enterprise inventory has slightly increased. The market situation in the Northeast region is average, with no significant changes in inventory.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has been operating weakly this month. The overall price trend of domestic soda ash is weak. Recently, there has been little change in the equipment of soda ash manufacturers, and it is expected to maintain a high level of construction. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, while upstream and downstream supply and demand are in a game. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to be weak and mainly operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.