According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market fluctuated and declined in September. From September 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 17516 yuan/ton to 16500 yuan/ton, with a 5.8% decrease in price during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 0.86%.

From late August to early September, some manufacturers’ prices were on the high side, but the market continued to experience high transmission barriers. The overall follow-up ability of the downstream market is weak, and the buying sentiment is relatively average. Traders are gradually lowering their prices to adapt to the market. In mid month, some sources of goods gradually filled in, while the demand side consumption capacity was slightly average, resulting in a slow decline in aggregated MDI prices. In the second half of the month, the market demand side follow-up was relatively average, and the price boost was relatively limited. Downstream demand was mainly concentrated, and traders remained in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the domestic aggregate MDI production in September (as of the 27th) was 207200 tons, an increase of 31.2% compared to the previous month. 4. The MDI integration of Wanhua Chemical Yantai Industrial Park (mainly including 1.1 million tons/year of MDI and 300000 tons/year of TDI), petrochemical integration (mainly including 750000 tons/year of PDH and 760000 tons/year of PO/MTBE24/year), and related coordination devices began to be shut down for maintenance on August 15, 2023. As of September 27, the shutdown maintenance of the above-mentioned equipment has been completed and normal production has resumed. The overall supply has been supplemented. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market remained at a high level in September. In September, both pure benzene and styrene were in low inventory, coupled with an increase in terminal orders for gold, silver, and ten, as well as a demand for dual stocking in October. The market experienced a large-scale increase in the first half of September, and the demand for short orders to replenish during the increase further drove the rise of pure benzene, with prices hitting 9000 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Supported by the cost side in September, aniline first rose and then stabilized. Some factories have maintenance plans, with double section pre stocking and active downstream receiving. The short-term aggregation of MDI is influenced by favorable factors on the cost side.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. Downstream of MDI, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of refrigerators from January to August 2023 was 65.11 million units, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year; The production of automobiles reached 17.987 million units, an increase of 3.52% year-on-year. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high cost support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. MDI analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.