According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market experienced a downward trend in August 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 227160 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 213560 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.99%.

On August 29th, the base metal index was 1206 points, a decrease of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.37% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.85% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On August 29th, the tin commodity index was 107.44, a decrease of 2.82 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 150.68% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have risen for two consecutive months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that tin prices have been declining for four consecutive weeks recently, with a slight rebound at the end of August.

In the first half of August 2023, the tin ingot market operated weakly and overall declined. In the first half of the month, macro bearish factors were relatively concentrated, with China’s CPI declining by 0.3% year-on-year in July, inflation in the United States, and a decline in US stocks. The metal market is generally down due to the drag on prices. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of tin ingots is relatively loose, and most domestic manufacturers have made inventory reserves before the ban on mining, which will not affect tin ingot production in the short term. After entering August, Myanmar’s mining ban policy has been delayed in implementing specific measures, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. However, demand remains tepid, with the electronics industry and semiconductors consistently weak, and overall market expectations weak. The weak supply and demand situation has dragged down tin prices. With the passage of time, there has been an increase in news from Myanmar. According to comprehensive analysis of the domestic market, the real impact of Myanmar’s mining ban on the market may be after September. The increase in production of Yinman Mining and the increase in Indonesian imports may alleviate the market’s expectation of future supply. Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market are still weak, and the market sentiment is on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future without the influence of external news. The recent market fluctuations will mainly follow macro factors, and the latest developments in Myanmar’s mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in July 2023 was 30875 tons (equivalent to 7522 metal tons), an increase of 33.87% year-on-year and 42.63% month on month. Among them, the import volume from Myanmar in July was 26385 tons, an increase of 51.01% year-on-year and 62.90% month on month; Except for Myanmar, the total import volume from other countries in July was 4490 tons, an increase of 19.70% year-on-year and a decrease of 17.62% month on month. The quantity of imported tin ore sand and its concentrate from countries such as Myanmar, Russia, and Nigeria has increased to varying degrees, with Myanmar showing a significant increase of 62.90% or 10188 tons compared to the previous month.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in June 2023, global refined tin production was 29400 tons, consumption was 28400 tons, and there was an oversupply of 1000 tons. From January to June 2023, the global refined tin production was 171300 tons, with a consumption of 165800 tons and an oversupply of 5500 tons. In June 2023, the global tin ore production was 26100 tons. From January to June 2023, the global tin ore production was 152000 tons.