Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10525 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 90%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. There has been an increase in inventory, with an overall output of over 150000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials: At the beginning of this month, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials fell. The rise of the raw material acrylonitrile market has been hindered, with some areas experiencing a decline. The raw material price is acceptable, and the support for acrylonitrile is maintained; The rise in downstream construction positions increases the pressure on the supply end of acrylonitrile; Downstream industries are generally operating, and demand has not improved. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may stagnate and enter the consolidation market.

The price of butadiene continued to rise this week. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently declined. Recently, downstream demand has been poor, but costs are still relatively high. Under the tug of war between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market will mainly experience a slight decline.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started construction with a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and there is an accumulation of market inventory. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.