According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell in March: the urea price fell from 2829.38 yuan/ton on March 1 to 2783.75 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 1.61%. At the end of the month, prices fell 6.59% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on March 29 was 129.65, down 0.52 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 133.18% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the price of mainstream domestic urea market rose first and then fell in March

Cost side: Large decline in LNG

In March, the price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly, from 6036.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 54344.00 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 28.03%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 40.35% compared to the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose slightly, rising from 1480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped significantly, from 4390.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.88%. At the end of the month, prices fell 19.25% year-on-year. Overall, urea upstream products fell sharply, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: melamine price drops slightly

From the demand side, agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, plate, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. In March, the price of melamine decreased slightly, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.63%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market in the first ten days of mid April may be dominated by a slight fluctuation and decline. Upstream LNG prices have fallen sharply, with insufficient cost support. The daily output of urea is about 160000 to 170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Downstream agricultural demand weakened, while industrial demand was moderate. Urea may fall slightly in the future.