This week (11.7-11), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the decline of this week was 1.36%, 8.78% lower than the previous month. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10000-10300 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.
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Industrial chain
The above figure shows that adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week. Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream decline of adipic acid narrowed slightly, the decline of pure benzene was 2% (down 4.49% last week), and the decline of cyclohexane was 1.17% (down 6.61% last week), which was negative on the cost side. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.
Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline
This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 2%. On the one hand, Sinopec lowered the price, which depressed the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, domestic large caprolactam plants shut down for maintenance, and the market share of pure benzene was squeezed by the inflow of hydrogenated benzene, which depressed the price of pure benzene. The recent concentrated arrival of ships and cargoes has impacted the domestic market. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is in the range of 6850-7000 yuan/ton.
It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.
Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer
From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the large factories settled at low prices, intensifying the bearish atmosphere in the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid this week was the same as last week, about 60%. Last week, Xinjiang Tianli device resumed operation and Taihua increased its load. At present, the supply is stable; At the same time, Shenma has a set of devices that enter the maintenance period at the beginning of the month. The other devices have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturers generally accumulate inventory.
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Demand side: weak downstream demand
The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the rise and fall of PA66 this week was 0, and the downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.
Future outlook
According to the business community, on the cost side, crude oil runs in shock, which is not very good, and the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, so it is difficult for pure benzene to get out of the haze in the later period, and the cost of adipic acid is still empty. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.
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