It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than the price of 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to more than 70%. At the end of October, a new PX unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was successfully commissioned, which was expected to trigger a downward market trend. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the external price of PX has declined. As of the 3rd day, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 967-969 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 985-987 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

On the cost side: the trend of international oil prices rose. As of the 3rd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.17 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.67 dollars/barrel. OPEC will start to reduce production in November, when crude oil production declines, strongly supporting oil prices. EIA data shows that US crude oil exports hit a record high, US total crude oil inventory fell to a 21 year low, international oil prices further rose, and crude oil brought some cost support.

Demand side: The domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week. As of the 4th day, the average price in the East China market was 5770 yuan/ton. PTA maintenance and production reduction capacity has been reduced. With the restart of large factories and resumption of production, the industrial load has increased significantly to 75%, and the supply has increased. However, due to the low actual inventory on the market, the overlapping epidemic situation has reduced the logistics efficiency, and the PTA market has fluctuated. The weak terminal demand led to the further accumulation of the inventory of the polyester factory. As of the 4th day, the inventory of the polyester factory was about 31-38 days. Therefore, the raw materials were purchased as needed. With the approaching end of the winter stocking season, the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 65%, which is likely to continue to reduce the load. The polyester industry also has a strong expectation of load reduction. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, which suppressed the demand for staple fiber. Terminal demand was poor, and the price trend declined.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game. In the short term, the macro and supply side will still be good for the oil market. The oil price may run stronger in the future, the downstream demand will be poor, the improvement of terminal orders will be limited, the storage pressure of polyester will rise, and the profits will be compressed again. In addition, Shenghong Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. will have a new PX unit of 2 million tons/year Weilian Chemical Phase II 1 million t/a PX new unit is planned to be put into production in November. Overall, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will fluctuate slightly in the later period.