1、 Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its broad upward trend in September this month, and the price climbed to the highest point in the year. On October 1, the aniline market price was 12500 yuan/ton; On October 28, the price was 14700 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 17.6% higher than the beginning of the month and 3.76% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As for raw materials, due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, which boosted the domestic pure benzene market. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7926 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7472 yuan/ton, down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

Nitric acid: nitric acid is stable and slightly active this month, and slightly higher in the late month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2367 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 1.43% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 27.99% lower than that at the same period last year.

In October, aniline overhaul devices were relatively concentrated, and aniline production capacity lost significantly, which aggravated the tight market supply. After the festival, due to the good downstream demand and the continuous tight spot supply of aniline, the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the aniline market was hard to get a single product, so the price continued to rise. With the continuous rise of aniline, the downstream profits are compressed, and the follow-up of high priced aniline slows down. The rise of aniline slows down in the last ten days, and the wait-and-see increase.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: Since China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak.

Nitric acid: Although the downstream aniline and TDI are supported by the rise, the support of liquid ammonia on the cost side is weak, and the upward space of nitric acid price is expected to be limited.

In the short term, although the demand for terminal additives has weakened, the tension in aniline supply has continued, supporting the high price. In the medium and long term, East China’s export contracts are dominated, and prices are expected to be relatively stable. In North China, if the parking device is restarted later, the price may fall back. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.