This week (10.24-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the decline of last week, with a slight slowdown. According to the monitoring of the business community, the drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong this week was 0.40% (1.82% last week), and the supply pressure was still outstanding. The amount of ammonia released in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Fujian, Southwest and other major production areas increased, and the price also decreased to varying degrees. The mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan/ton near the weekend.

From the supply side, the ammonia emission in the main production areas only increased this week. Since the middle of the week, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian have seen large shipments, and with the manufacturers’ successive price reductions, more efforts have been made to ship. Moreover, due to the continuous weak fluctuation of urea price, many enterprises still switched to liquid ammonia production this week. In recent two weeks, the ammonia volume remained high, and the price was suppressed by loose supply.

On the end, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia is still sluggish, and urea also maintains a weak shock. This week, although the market rebounded slightly during the week, it still did not rise to the level at the beginning of the week. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea rose and fell to 0 this week. As of the 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong was generally 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the downstream industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of plates is generally low. In addition, the demand for compound fertilizer has declined at the end of the autumn peak fertilizer season, and the agricultural demand has entered the slack season. The price of urea dropped from a high level.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of liquid ammonia has maintained a weak shock recently due to the continuous pressure of supply. However, from the middle of the week to the weekend, some manufacturers of liquid ammonia started to raise their prices, with a slight increase in prices. Whether they can rebound later depends on the cooperation of the demand side. As far as the current demand is concerned, agriculture has entered the slack season, industrial demand remains just in demand, and the increase is difficult to boost. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.