The trend of domestic gasoline and diesel is divergent. As of the 14th, the price of domestic 92 # gasoline was 8420 yuan/ton, and the price fell 3.14% after the National Day holiday; The domestic price of 0 # diesel oil was 8786.6 yuan/ton, and the market price increased by 0.24%, mainly because of the demand. The demand for diesel oil was improving, the demand for gasoline was declining, and the price trend of gasoline and diesel oil was diverging.

Supply side: In October, the operating rate of Shandong refineries was maintained, and the supply side was loose. The local refineries were relatively abundant in resource supply. The main shipping pressure remained, and the gasoline price fell under pressure. In the near future, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong’s main refineries has maintained about 65%, the manufacturer’s inventory has been maintained, and the supply of gasoline and diesel is loose. Therefore, the supply of refined oil resources is limited, the operators’ intention to enter the market is reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light.

Demand side: after the National Day holiday, the epidemic situation in some areas has occurred occasionally, the travel of residents has decreased, the demand for gasoline has declined, and the price of gasoline has declined. In terms of diesel, at present, large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively speeding up. At the same time, it is autumn harvest in the north, and agricultural oil use is increasing. With the decrease of temperature and rainy weather, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining has increased, and diesel demand remains high. Since October, diesel sales have been good, and diesel prices have risen slightly.

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price has risen since October. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price has risen by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side is difficult to ease. The World Bank and the IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession is growing, The IMF also lowered its economic growth forecast for next year. After the holiday, the crude oil price fell for three consecutive days. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was 89.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was 94.57 dollars/barrel. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, the cost support remained, and the domestic oil product market was supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, an oil product analyst from the business community, believes that OPEC+’s crude oil production reduction news is good for the oil market, but economic concerns continue to pressure oil prices, and international oil prices remain volatile in the short term. On the domestic side, there is no good holiday boost in the short term, travel is limited in some regions, gasoline demand is poor, and prices are still at risk of falling. At present, the operation rate of large-scale industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries is stable. At the same time, the autumn harvest is coming in the north, and the agricultural oil use is increasing. With the temperature decreasing, the northern region has begun to replace the negative resources. The diesel resources are relatively tight, but the diesel gradually approaches the price limit level, and the increase will be limited.