Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic ABS market continued to fall last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of July 15, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12500 yuan / ton, up or down -4.56% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell last week. The main negative reason is that affected by the continuous low crude oil price, the focus of the pure benzene market has shifted downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market, the fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, some maintenance devices have been restarted, the market inventory is expected to rise, and the spot price of styrene has fallen slightly.

The price of acrylonitrile fell last week. The upstream propylene situation has slightly recovered, and the cost support is acceptable. In terms of operating rate, the overall load of domestic acrylonitrile enterprises has decreased, but the market supply is still loose, and the downstream rigid demand is dominant, so buy up rather than buy down. The price focus of propylene still shows a downward trend, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market was slightly consolidated. At the beginning of the week, some major production enterprises stopped production, and the market supply side was still supported. Some downstream production enterprises have plans to increase production, which gives the market a certain confidence support. However, at present, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the butadiene market is mainly on the sidelines.

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the support of ABS cost side was weakened. In the macro aspect, the international crude oil has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors, and the recent price fluctuations have intensified, which is bad for the oil chemical industry chain. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, which is generally around 80%. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry. The main downstream players such as household appliances take less goods, and the demand in the field is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer is subject to the market.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to fall last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. In the near future, the market is dominated by bad market on the floor, and it is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to be weak in the short term.