1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 22, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is 6580 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on March 18. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid increased by 0.30%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 22, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is 6733 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on March 18. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 0.99%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have risen this week. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have risen, providing support on the cost side. This week, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market was sluggish, and downstream purchases were made on demand, resulting in limited market trading. This week, the demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the trading atmosphere is good. Manufacturers have continuously raised their quotations.

As of March 22, the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the market price for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The focus of the yellow phosphorus market has slightly shifted upwards this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. Driving on site is relatively stable. Manufacturers are mainly holding up prices, while the yellow phosphorus market has rebounded and stopped falling. Downstream procurement is cautious, while upstream and downstream are relatively stagnant, with a focus on wait-and-see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22700-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the phosphate ore market has shown a fluctuating trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the week, the overall price of phosphate ore in the Yunnan region of China increased, with some mining companies that had previously quoted lower prices raising the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton. Later, during the mid week period, some mining companies in Guizhou region also lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore narrowly based on their own shipments, with a reduction of about 10-30 yuan per ton. The phosphate ore market in other regions mainly continues to consolidate and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current trend in the phosphoric acid market is upward. The raw material market is strengthening, with good cost support. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid is good, while the demand for hot process phosphoric acid needs to be improved. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 21st, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent premium product in China, was 16066.67 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices were mainly narrow and strong, with a 2.55% increase compared to the same period last month, with an increase of around 400 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream MMA prices are strong, and PMMA has some support on the cost side. In the first half of March, MMA prices continued to be strong, but in the second half of the month, prices slightly declined. Currently, the overall market demand for PMMA is still good, and the market is recovering, with manufacturers mainly operating at high prices.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PMMA prices have been the main trend, with a 2.55% increase compared to the same period last month and a 1.05% increase compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 16000 yuan/ton. The operating rate of PMMA in March was around 64%, while the operating rate of upstream factory MMA was around 48%. The supply of PMMA in March was significantly lower than last month, with a decrease in on-site operating rate and supply side. In late February, Mitsubishi Chemical announced that it would stop the ACH process MMA production and acrylonitrile related production in the Hiroshima factory, and withdraw some business. The annual production capacity of MMA in the Hiroshima factory is 90000 tons, while Mitsubishi Chemical will continue to produce C4 in the Hiroshima factory. MMA monomers produced by the process will continue to be produced in the Okayama factory, acrylonitrile and sodium glycine will be produced in the Kanto factory, and acrylamide will be produced in the Kanto factory. At the same time, there are new reports from Rom Chemical that they will expand their production capacity of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) at the world’s largest production base in Worms through the new factory to meet the steadily growing demand from the automotive industry. Currently, due to the drive of new energy vehicles, PMMA as one of the raw materials for automotive parts, demand is also further increasing, Drive manufacturers to expand and expand production.

In terms of cost: MMA prices remained mainly upward in the month of MMA3, while prices remained stable and fell in late March. Currently, factories have shown signs of offering prices, mainly through price support operations. The overall market negotiation focus is stable, with normal inventory consumption. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still acceptable, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. The expected production of MMA in March is about 102000 tons, a decrease of about 2.2% compared to the previous month, and an increase of about 8.9% compared to the same period last year. Currently, the on-site spot supply is still acceptable.

In terms of cost, the acetone market showed a stable and weak trend in March, with prices rebounding and rising in late March. Currently, the mainstream price of acetone in the market is around 7250-7300 yuan/ton, and port inventories decreased at the beginning of the week. Traders have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of market negotiations is currently high. The transaction atmosphere is good. In April, several phenolic ketone companies reported maintenance news, with maintenance time from the end of March to the end of April, which is about one month. During the maintenance period, the market supply will be reduced, and downstream PMMA will have some positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PMMA is still acceptable, and the procurement atmosphere is positive. With the popularity of power vehicles, PMMA, as one of the raw materials for producing automotive parts, is widely used in projects such as car lights, windshields, and windows. Due to its high strength, toughness, and wear resistance, it can effectively improve the safety and comfort of cars. Since March, the demand for power vehicles has increased, and there has been a shortage of supply, leading to a surge in the price of PMMA.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the domestic supply of PMMA is limited, inventory pressure is not high, and the operating rate is relatively stable. Many manufacturers are mainly with a price support mentality, and downstream demand is constantly increasing. There is a slight shortage of upstream supply. Although some companies have started to expand production, it will take some time to officially release production capacity, and the cost side has a certain supporting effect. Therefore, it is expected that PMMA prices will maintain a narrow and strong trend in the short term.

From March 11 to March 18, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China operated weakly, with prices dropping 0.55% to 91000 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market is relatively weak.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12850./12850/-

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has remained stable, with a price of $12850/ton as of March 18th, unchanged. Currently, the market is on the wait-and-see side.

Since the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable and stable, with a slight decline after January. In terms of supply, smelting enterprises generally resumed normal production after January, and the supply of antimony ingots remained basically unchanged compared to before the holiday. However, the mining side still maintains a tight pattern, which has affected the strong mentality of smelters to raise prices, and the market supply is slightly tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown relatively stable trends in recent times. Some enterprises have plans to replenish their inventory after the holiday, but they still maintain their essential procurement. In the future, Business Society believes that the antimony ingot market is gradually returning to a normal trading atmosphere, and in the absence of significant changes in supply and demand, it will continue to maintain temporary stable operation in the near future.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide/ 79500./79500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide/ 81500./81500/-

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market remained weak after the Spring Festival. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were mainly affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha has continued to rise this week. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8341.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 11th’s 8251.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

This week, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8234.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from March 11th’s 8129.00 yuan/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8200 yuan/ton.

This week’s rise in international crude oil prices supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for gains. However, there was a lack of substantial positive news at the end, and market trading was mainly focused on the restructuring of local refineries. The market mentality was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose this week, and the cycle began. The Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased, with high levels of toluene port inventory continuing, and supply pressure still remaining; The mixed xylene market has slightly increased, while the mixed xylene port inventory has slightly decreased, and supply pressure remains; The price trend of PX is stable, and the domestic supply of xylene is stable. The domestic operating rate of PX is maintained at over 80%.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating at a high level, with cost support in the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has remained relatively stable this week, with some varieties slightly rising, and the overall market is operating relatively strong.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the vitamin C market has slightly increased this week, with mainstream quotes for feed grade vitamin C ranging from 24 to 26 yuan/kg. Boosted by news, the market atmosphere has improved, and some traders have raised their prices, resulting in more factory suspensions.

This week, the price of vitamin A has slightly increased. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market is 85-87 yuan/kg, and the European market quote is 19-21 euros/kg. It is reported that BASF’s German factory plans to undergo maintenance for two months starting from the end of March. Market attention has increased, inquiries have been active, and traders have raised their prices.

This week, the price of vitamin E has slightly increased, and the current mainstream price in the VE market is between 66-70 yuan/ton. The European market quotation is 7-7.4 euros per kilogram. The increase in European quotations has boosted the domestic market. The factory has maintained a suspension of reporting, and traders are actively pushing for price increases, resulting in an improved transaction atmosphere.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin markets have improved, but lack real order support and slow demand follow-up. If the positive news in the future is exhausted and prices continue to rise, there will be greater resistance. In the future, close attention will be paid to the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises.

According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, on March 14th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Shengyishe was 4387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the beginning of this month (4200.00 yuan/ton). At present, the reference price for industrial grade 99.5% glycerol in the domestic market is around 4300-4590/ton.

Raw material side: According to the monitoring system of Business Society, palm oil rose in the morning on March 14th. The opening price of Y2405 contract for palm oil is 7942 yuan/ton, with the latest quotation of 7976 yuan/ton, an increase of 122 yuan/ton, a maximum of 7982 yuan/ton, and a minimum of 7918 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of this month, it has increased by 5.08%.

The downstream epichlorohydrin market saw a decline in prices this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyishe was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.92% compared to the beginning of this week (8150.00 yuan/ton). The market demand is light, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive.

Late stage forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst of Business Society, the domestic glycerol market demand is weak, and downstream rigid demand procurement is needed. It is expected that the market price of industrial grade 99.5% glycerol will operate steadily, with a reference price of about 4300-4590/ton. For more information, please pay attention to external news and market guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of stearic acid 1840 this week was around 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 1.67%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early March, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose by more than 1%, with an average palm oil market price of 7842 yuan/ton. The estimate for Malaysian palm oil production in the external market has been lowered, with bullish factors still present. There is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices continued to rise this week. The average market price of PVC is 5632 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 0.42%. This week, the load rate of the PVC industry is higher than 8 floors, with an increase in PVC export orders. This week, the load rate of steel tire enterprises in the industry continued to increase, with a load rate of more than 7.8 floors in the semi steel tire industry and less than 7 floors in the full steel tire industry.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the upward trend in the upstream palm oil market this week has provided strong support for the cost side. The downstream PVC operating rate is at a high level, and the terminal steel tire industry operating rate has also increased, which is a favorable factor for the stearic acid market. Overall, the market for stearic acid is gradually heating up, and it is expected that the stearic acid market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the market for dichloromethane has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 11th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% from 2175 yuan/ton on the first day, and the low point in the cycle was 2155 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable, with support for the cost of dichloromethane; The inventory levels of merchants and terminals in Shandong region are generally low, but inquiries are cautious; Some production enterprises have raised their factory prices due to relatively low inventory levels, resulting in a slight increase in merchant offers. As of March 11th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2230-2250 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.1-3.11), there has been a slight fluctuation in the domestic supply of methane chlorides, with an overall production rate of around 6.80%.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable, and the cost of dichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2730 yuan/ton, which is 0.33% higher than the 2740 yuan/ton on March 1st; The low point within the cycle is 2691 yuan/ton. As of March 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, downstream production has gradually increased, with low levels of inventory for merchants and terminals. However, we are cautious in observing and inquiring about the future market, and mainly support the demand for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: Methane chloride data analysts from Business Society believe that although some companies currently have low inventory, terminal inquiries are cautious; The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the market for dichloromethane will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. On March 4th, the market price of aniline was 10537 yuan/ton. On March 8th, the price was 10537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09% from last week and 13.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, discussions on the price increase of pure benzene in the East China market were positive, but the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the price increase space is limited. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today. On Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price was 1873 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the price was 1840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from last week and a decrease of 25.89% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

The shipment situation of the aniline factory is average, while downstream factories are cautious and have low purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly.

In February, the domestic first tier sponge titanium market first rose and then stabilized. Large enterprises have made an upward adjustment of around 2000 yuan.

According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of February 28th, the benchmark price of first-class sponge titanium in Shengyishe was 54000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.85% compared to the beginning of this month (51500.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost:

In February, due to factors such as high cost and rising electricity prices, several production companies raised the price of sponge titanium. After the Spring Festival, the high titanium slag market started operating normally with sufficient inventory, but the high price of raw titanium ore put pressure on the production cost of high titanium slag; In addition, the shutdown of some slag plants has led to weak and stable market operation. In addition, the impact of imported titanium rich materials has led to weak operation of the high titanium slag market.

In terms of downstream demand:

After the Spring Festival, the market gradually recovered. The demand in the military industry market is stable, with a slight increase in demand for civilian products.

Post forecast:

According to the prediction of sponge titanium analysts from Business Society, the sponge titanium market will operate steadily in March due to factors such as the release of new market capacity, increased production, and high support for raw materials. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.