According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in April. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% from the beginning of the month price of 7587.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.14%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In April, the price of industrial naphthalene slightly increased, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In April, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the beginning of the month’s price of 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site facilities was stable. In the short term, the crude oil price trend increased, and the price of mixed xylene rose. The rise in ortho benzene market provided strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market increased.

On the demand side, the on-demand procurement market in the DOP market has slightly declined

In April, the price trend of downstream DOP market slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the price was 9787.5 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the beginning of the month’s price of 9890 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was not good. The mainstream price of DOP was 9700-9800 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride was poor, limiting the price increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices is mainly volatile, while the price of ortho xylene is stable. The downstream DOP market is mainly volatile and low. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. There is a lack of positive support on the market, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene will be mainly volatile in the future.

In April, the domestic market for trichloromethane saw a weak consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the 2780 yuan/ton in early April.

Since April, on the one hand, downstream production has remained stable at a low level, and terminal procurement performance has been mediocre. On the other hand, raw material methanol has experienced narrow fluctuations, liquid chlorine prices have fallen from high levels, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened, resulting in a weak consolidation of the trichloromethane market.

In April, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating with a narrow fluctuation, and as of the end of April, the domestic methane chloride production was around 6.80%.

In April, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine fell from a high level. The cost support for trichloromethane weakened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2655 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% from 2623 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; At the end of April, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was around 400 yuan/ton, a decrease from the high of 700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the downstream refrigerant R22 started operating at a stable low level, with weak support for the rigid demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that the cost of trichloromethane still has support; Downstream refrigerant production remains at a low level, with limited support for the demand for trichloromethane. Overall, the trend of trichloromethane is mainly weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% from the beginning of the month’s price of 24166.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 21.14% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.37% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering April, supported by the significant increase in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices in the early stage, coupled with the arrival of the peak season for refrigerant demand, cost and demand support, manufacturers raised the factory price of R22 again at the beginning of the month, driving the domestic R22 market price to continue to rise. With the overall fluctuation and stabilization of raw material costs, manufacturers continue to raise prices. In mid month, the domestic R22 market price remained stable and continued to move forward. In late October, raw material prices rose again, and with cost support, the domestic R22 market price continued to operate at a high level.

Affected by the comprehensive rebound in domestic prices of hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene in the early stage, the rising raw material costs have provided strong support for the domestic R134a price. In addition, as downstream enters the peak stocking season, manufacturers have once again raised the factory price of R134a in April, driving the domestic R134a price to continue to rise. In the middle of the month, the overall price of raw materials stabilized, and the domestic price of R134a also remained stable. In the latter half of the year, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose again, and the cost of raw materials rose again. Affected by the rapid rise in refrigerant prices before, the overall market price in the latter half of the year tended to stabilize, and the domestic price of R134a remained strong at a high level.

In terms of raw materials, overall, after entering April, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices have shown a rapid and significant upward trend, and the continuous rise in raw material costs will provide strong support for domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, after the implementation of refrigerant quotas, the refrigerant industry will enter a business cycle in the new year. In addition, downstream demand will not decrease in the second quarter, and raw material costs will continue to rise. With the support of costs and demand, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong in May.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on April 22nd, which was 5737.50 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of acetic acid has been continuously decreasing, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, weak downstream demand, and mainly enter the market on demand. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates narrowly.

Weak downturn in the acetic acid market

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.80% from the price of acetic acid on April 22nd, which was 3450 yuan/ton. The on-site acetic acid plant has been repaired and restored, with an increase in capacity utilization and an increase in market supply. Manufacturers are actively shipping, while downstream suppliers are generally stocking up before the holiday. The enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is weak, and market trading is poor. In order to promote the continuous reduction of acetic acid prices for shipping, actual transactions on the site are limited, and the acetic acid market is weak and downward, which has a negative impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a clear shipping sentiment; Downstream follow-up is more on demand, and businesses have limited entry into the market for purchasing. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is expected to remain stable, with limited supplier support. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will remain stable for the time being, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream prices.

Main domestic hydrogenated benzene market prices this month (unit: yuan/ton)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in April 2024, the hydrogenated benzene market rose in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half of the month. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8666.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.56%.

Crude oil prices: In April, the international oil price trend first rose and then fell. In the first half of the month, the oil price fluctuated from a high level before falling, and in the second half, it fluctuated. In the first half of the month, due to the unstable geopolitical situation, especially concerns about the possible escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel after April, it provided strong support for international oil prices. On the other hand, US energy companies have cut the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for the fourth consecutive week, the first time since September 2023. Finally, the global outlook for future oil demand is optimistic, supported by positive factors, and crude oil prices rose in the first half of April. The risk of conflict in the Middle East region will decrease in the second half of the month, and the market expects that the possibility of the US escalating sanctions on Iran’s oil exports will also decrease. As the market’s concerns slow down, the positive international oil supply has dissipated, to some extent smoothing out the risk premium of crude oil. At the end of the month, due to the expected improvement in crude oil demand and the decrease in US crude oil inventories, crude oil prices rose slightly again. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $83.85 per barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $88.21 per barrel.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In April 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 250 yuan/ton, and the price has not changed since April 7th. Currently, it is still priced at 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8683 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the month, geopolitical warming drove up crude oil prices. After the opening of the Qingming Festival, the pure benzene market continued to rise, driving up the industrial chain market. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene was raised to around 8800 yuan/ton. Later, with the decline of crude oil and news of downstream equipment maintenance, the market slightly adjusted and maintained a high volatility trend. In mid to late April, the overall fluctuation of the pure benzene industry chain was not significant, and the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remained at 8600-8800 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

In terms of supply, hydrogenation benzene enterprises started construction in the first half of April and the supply was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, raw material prices continued to rise, resulting in lower profits for enterprises. The production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has significantly declined, and some enterprises have plans to repair and park in the future. The market expects a tightening of supply in the future. As demand approaches the end of the month, some downstream enterprises have reported parking plans, and the market expects a decline in future demand, which has a certain impact on the market atmosphere. At the end of the month, the hydrogenated benzene market followed a slight decline in pure benzene. Lack of demand support is expected to put pressure on the hydrogenation benzene market in the future, and the market is expected to operate weakly in the short term.

In April, the price of new pentanediol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 9966.67 yuan/ton, which was a decrease followed by an increase of 2.92% compared to the price of 10266.67 yuan/ton quoted on April 1st; Compared to April 21st, the price of new pentanediol increased by 0.34% to 9933.33 yuan/ton. In April, the price of raw material isobutyraldehyde stopped falling and rose, while the cost of neopentyl glycol increased. The quotation from neopentyl glycol manufacturers also increased.

In early April, the parking and maintenance situation of downstream neopentyl glycol enterprises was relatively concentrated, and the price of neopentyl glycol decreased; In the latter half of the month, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose, supporting costs, and the price of new pentanediol factory rebounded and increased. In April, the prices of new pentanediol manufacturers increased, and the market for new pentanediol rebounded.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7650 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased by 1.10% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 11th, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 6.07% to 7212.50 yuan/ton. The high price of crude oil has fallen, while the price of raw material propylene has first risen and then fallen. Downstream inventories of new pentanediol are slowly being depleted, and the overall production of isobutyraldehyde in April has significantly decreased. However, compared to downstream production, the decline in production is limited. In addition, factories in Ningxia have started exporting isobutyraldehyde, which has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened.

The price of raw material formaldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from the formaldehyde price of 1206.67 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 11th, the price of formaldehyde increased by 1.25% to 1197.50 yuan/ton. In April, the raw material methanol market fluctuated upwards, and the price of formaldehyde basically followed the changes in methanol. However, downstream purchases remained in demand, and the receiving sentiment was poor. Formaldehyde was weak in following the rise, and the market slightly rose. In April, formaldehyde enterprises underwent more maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of formaldehyde and an overall positive formaldehyde market.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s new pentanediol products, in terms of cost, the prices of formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose. In April, the cost of new pentanediol increased, and in terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol were relatively balanced. Overall, the cost of neopentyl glycol is supporting, and the upward momentum of neopentyl glycol is increasing. However, downstream demand support is limited, and it is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol will stabilize strongly in the future.

Recently (4.12-4.22), the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from 13620 yuan/ton on April 12. The high price of raw material butadiene continues to support the cost of butadiene rubber; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production has remained stable, with on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber has mainly weakened and narrowed after a significant increase in the early stage.

Recently (4.12-4.22), the price of butadiene has been running at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 22, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 11700 yuan/ton on April 12.

Recently (4.12-4.22), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and as of now, the domestic production of butadiene rubber is around 5.9%.

Demand side: In the near future (4.12-4.22), downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, maintaining rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of mid April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.00%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to 7.1%; But the downstream has some resistance to high priced Shunding, stocking up on demand, and market transactions are flat.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the graph of Business Society’s butadiene rubber index shows that after the 7-day moving average crossed the 30 day moving average in early February, it was overall above the 30 day moving average, and during this period, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly; At present, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average in mid April, and the 30 day moving average supports breaking levels. In the later stage, butadiene rubber may operate weakly.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support it; Some early stage equipment has recently restarted, and there are also some equipment plans for maintenance in the later stage. The expected start of production of butadiene rubber is expected to remain low; Although downstream tire companies are still operating at a relatively high level, their resistance to high priced sources of polybutadiene rubber has resulted in less than expected procurement efforts, putting pressure on the polybutadiene rubber market. Overall, the current polybutadiene rubber market may be weak in the future.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price increased by 5.41% this week, with an average market price of 97.5 yuan/ton. The weekend price decreased by 49.5% year-on-year.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at an average level and low inventory. The manufacturer’s equipment remains stable, the price of acid production remains rigid and stable, and the sales are relatively active.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with expectations of an increase and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a high level. The price remained stable this week, with a market price of 1818 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

The price of new pentanediol is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9933.33 yuan/ton quoted on April 12th. The prices of raw materials have increased this week. The cost of new pentanediol has increased, and some manufacturers have raised their prices for new pentanediol. Downstream demand support is poor, and the market transactions for new pentanediol are limited, and the market transaction prices are temporarily stable.

Cost support, the price of new pentanediol factory rebounded and increased this week.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7212.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the price of propylene, a raw material for isobutyraldehyde, fluctuates and rises. Downstream inventory of new pentanediol is depleted, and the demand support for the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde is limited. The driving force for the price increase of isobutyraldehyde is increasing.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25% compared to the formaldehyde price of 1197.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The upstream raw material methanol price has risen, the formaldehyde price is low, and the downward pressure on formaldehyde has weakened. The supply and demand fundamentals of the formaldehyde industry chain are relatively balanced, and the overall formaldehyde market is positive, with formaldehyde prices fluctuating and rising.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s new pentanediol products, in terms of cost, the prices of formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde have fluctuated and increased, while the cost of new pentanediol has increased. In terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol are relatively balanced. Overall, the cost of new pentanediol is supported, and the upward momentum of new pentanediol is increasing. However, downstream demand support is insufficient, and it is expected that the price of new pentanediol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined since April. On the 16th, the market reported around 13320 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it reported around 13440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, fuel prices have risen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has risen. Currently, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly weak and consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has significantly increased. On April 16th, the price of loose water in the acrylonitrile market was 10375 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.14% from 9962.50 yuan/ton on the first day. As of April 16th, the mainstream price for self pickup of acrylonitrile in the market is between 10200 and 10500 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have risen, and the cost continues to support acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production remains low, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units has slightly declined, providing some support for the acrylonitrile market.

Raw material acrylic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylic acid market is on the rise. As of April 16th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China is 6825.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, and cost pressure has increased. Some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance, and spot prices are tight, supporting the market’s price mentality. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic liquefied natural gas market rose in the first half of April. In some areas, maintenance of liquid plants has led to a decrease in market supply, with downstream procurement mainly based on demand.

Technical prediction: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, polyacrylamide will experience a downward trend after the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average after March 31, 2024. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 35.16%.

At present, the price monitoring of polyacrylamide is at a one-year low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of polyacrylamide in the past three years is 15143.23 yuan/ton, with a median value of 15735 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 13220.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 18250.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 100 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (the highest price difference in the past three years) is -4930 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid will rise, fuel prices will rise, and the cost of polyacrylamide will rise. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week, and the market supply was sufficient; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that weak consolidation of polyacrylamide in China will be the main trend in the near future.