According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 6800 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7116 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.45%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating downward trend. In early September, the n-butanol market continued to decline, and the market center continued to move towards lower levels. As of September 15th, the n-butanol market price in Shandong region was based on 6666 yuan/ton, with a drop of 6.32% in the first half of the year.

In late September, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the n-butanol market ushered in a short recovery. In the post festival stage, some n-butanol units did not resume operation, and the overall operating rate in the site was reduced. The supply side provided temporary support to the market, and the market focus was moving up. However, the support provided by downstream demand to the market has generally improved. After the resumption of production, the n-butanol market has experienced a rapid decline. As of September 29th, the n-butanol market price reference is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, with some downstream companies stocking up before the holiday. The overall market demand has slightly improved, and shipments at low prices have also improved. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of ethylene glycol decreased in September

In September, the price of ethylene glycol began to decline and stabilized at the end of the month. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of September 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.28% from September 1st.

On September 27, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4500-4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot contracts did not change much during the day. In October, the basis quotation was+38 to+43 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+42 to+46 yuan/ton.

On September 27th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4180-4300 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On September 26, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $540/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $535/ton.

Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

Cost wise: Saudi Arabia is preparing to abandon its unofficial oil price target of $100 per barrel and increase production to regain market share. Additionally, two OPEC+sources have stated that the organization will increase oil production in December. International crude oil production is expected to increase, and the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil has loosened. Coal to ethylene glycol has recently stabilized due to the stabilization of coal prices and cost recovery, but its absolute value is still relatively low.

On the import side, ships that were delayed due to typhoon weather in the early stage have gradually docked at the port, and the recent arrival volume at the port has increased.

Port inventory: As of September 26, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 553400 tons, a decrease of 119900 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on August 29, which was 673300 tons; Compared with the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on September 23, which was 512600 tons, the inventory increased by 40800 tons.

Future expectations

Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to the positive domestic macro conditions driving up the price of coal, and the cost of coal to ethylene glycol has changed; In addition, the polyester sector has been affected by macro sentiment and has stopped falling and rebounded.

However, the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil is still in a downward trend due to the influence of international crude oil prices, and there is no sign of a stop to the decline in the short term. In addition, there is an expectation of a weak peak season in downstream polyester demand, and it is expected that the price of imported ethylene glycol, which has a high correlation with futures, will have weak upward momentum. The domestic macro sentiment has a significant impact on current prices, and if international crude oil prices do not rebound, the price of ethylene glycol in October may mainly fluctuate weakly.

In this cycle (20240912-20240919), the cost side and demand side played a game, and the overall price of acrylic acid market showed a trend of oscillation and consolidation during the week. The atmosphere of negotiations in various regions was not lively. Although the overall supply and demand pressure was not high, the fundamentals still maintained a weak trend. As of September 25th, the reference price of acrylic acid was 6775.00, an increase of 0.37% compared to September 1st (6750.00).

In terms of cost

This week, the raw material propylene fluctuated within a narrow range, and enterprise quotations tended to be conservative, with little fluctuation in the cost of acrylic acid. Downstream factories flexibly purchase based on their actual needs, and transactions are relatively smooth for moderately priced goods; However, there is little interest in transactions with low prices, and the activity is slightly insufficient.

The mainstream transaction price of propylene in Shandong region is 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week; In the Northeast region, it dropped to 6255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; The price of propylene in the northwest region dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 6180 yuan/ton, with a significant decrease; As of September 25th, the reference price of propylene was 6690.75, a decrease of 3.98% compared to September 1st (6968.25).

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and the upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to remain weak, and it is recommended to purchase according to demand.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

This week (September 16-20, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market continued to maintain a stable trend, with manufacturers mainly fulfilling orders and prices remaining stable. The market price of the main raw material dissolving slurry is firm and stable, with cost support still remaining. There is no obvious sign of improvement in the “Golden Nine” market, and the demand in the terminal market is flat. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory, and the atmosphere of observation in the market is strong. The overall flow rate of goods in the market is stable, and the market price of adhesive short fibers has not changed much. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream cotton mills.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (September 16-20, 2024). As of September 20th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost side support still exists

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is still supported by favorable factors.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber may remain high, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. However, the new round of signing orders in the downstream market has basically ended, and the peak season has arrived. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

The phthalic anhydride market has fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the price of 7462.50 yuan/ton on September 6th. This week, the price of ortho xylene was quoted at 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% compared to last week. The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of goods and queuing up for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride and increased upward pressure on its price.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of ortho benzene was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% from the price of ortho benzene on September 6th, which was 7700 yuan/ton; Compared to early September, the price of ortho benzene decreased by 500 yuan/ton, or 6.33%, from 7900 yuan/ton. In September, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell again, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased. There is significant downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: DOP market trend rebounds

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 8th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the DOP price dropped by 8726.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. The prices of raw materials continue to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment expands, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products increases compared to August. Driven by profits, downstream plasticizer companies are expected to increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in demand for phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at low loads, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has rebounded, DOP manufacturers have increased production, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is expected to rebound. It is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will stop falling and rebound in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with slow overall market shipments and high inventory levels. Currently, downstream demand is weak, terminal demand is not as expected, and downstream demand is weak. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the fluctuation of upstream pure benzene prices is the main trend, with a weak decline. Crude oil prices have fallen, and buying gas has been stagnant. Recently, crude oil prices have continued to decline. According to industry insiders, the drop in oil prices to the lowest point of the year is mainly due to weak economic data, hindered exports, and other reasons.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will remain weak and stable in the short term, with insufficient cost support and passive downstream purchasing.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China declined in August. As of August 30th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.42% compared to the beginning of this month (11300.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material sulfuric acid continues to rise and only falls slightly towards the end of the month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is somewhat restricted. Some domestic enterprises’ facilities for hydrofluoric acid are still shut down and waiting for the market, resulting in limited release of hydrofluoric acid production, low industry profits, and increased losses. Overall, there is still pressure on production costs for enterprises, and the hydrogen fluoride market is weak and declining. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 340.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.77% compared to the beginning of this month (260.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market production demand is weakening, and air conditioning companies are entering the annual maintenance season. In addition, with the recent continuous rainy weather, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. Price cutting procurement, urgent need for replenishment.

Market forecast: In the near future, upstream sulfuric acid prices will continue to rise, and there will be significant pressure on the production cost of hydrofluoric acid. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain weak and stable in the later period.

Isopropanol

Latest price: On August 27th, the average market price was 7590.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis points: On August 27th, the focus of the isopropanol market shifted downwards. In terms of upstream acetone raw materials, there is significant supply pressure, leading to a decline in market quotes. Affected the mentality of the isopropanol market, coupled with insufficient downstream demand follow-up, the overall trading performance of the market is poor, and the focus of on-site negotiations is still low, resulting in cautious actual market transactions. At present, the reference price in Shandong region is around 7400-7500 yuan/ton, and the reference price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 7600 yuan/ton. The reference price of isopropanol in southern China is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain cautious in the short term, with a weak and stable operation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11833 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11766/ton, a decrease of 0.56% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotes this week, with some manufacturers lowering their quotes. The market supply is sufficient, and the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton. Downstream transactions are weak, and we will focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is underperforming, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 20700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.85% compared to the same period last year. On August 15th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with prices in the Shandong region stabilizing. The mainstream market price is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory in the region is stable. Domestic bromine production is also stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1345 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has increased by 2.67%, which is 31.01% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.