Weak supply and demand pattern, polyester staple fiber prices maintain a downward trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market maintained a slight decline this week (November 13-17). As of November 17, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the beginning of the week.

 

Melamine

The obvious negative sentiment of the US crude oil inventory accumulation continues to ferment, coupled with market concerns about the economic and energy demand prospects, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and decline. As of November 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.90 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.42 per barrel. However, the PTA market is favored by domestic and foreign macro atmosphere, and related commodities such as PX and ethylene glycol have seen significant increases, leading to a rebound in PTA prices. Superimposed by strong sea winds, ports in Beilun, Zhenhai, and other areas in Zhejiang Province have been closed due to strong winds, which may affect some logistics transportation. PTA prices have increased by 2.68% this week.

 

Downstream yarn factories are operating steadily, and overall sales are weak. Inventory pressure increases, inventory accumulation speed is faster, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards polyester staple fibers. The purchasing intention decreases, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. In terms of price, some specifications have experienced a decline in prices, with the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region at 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the beginning of the week. The current textile industry has entered a seasonal off-season, with some end product inventory being high and terminal textile orders scarce. It is expected that inventory will increase to a certain extent, and it is inevitable to reduce production or promote sales.

 

Analysts from Business Society believe that driven by the strength of PTA, the atmosphere of the polyester staple fiber market has improved, and factories have an intention to increase prices. However, due to the weak demand side, the increase is weak. At the same time, a set of polyester short fiber maintenance device increased the load during the week, resulting in an increase in supply. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the price of polyester short fiber is still mainly weak in operation.

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Slow follow-up of aggregated MDI market situation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is slowly following up. From November 8th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16183 yuan/ton to 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.11%. The overall market quotation pace is slowly improving, and spot transactions are slowly following up. As prices rise, some shipments are willing to increase, and the market follow-up atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a slow overall push. The demand side is slowly following up, with some just needed orders still remaining and transactions. The overall market support is relatively obvious, and the market is digesting social inventory.

 

Sodium Molybdate

On the supply side, the 600000 ton/year device at the Shanghai MDI factory began maintenance on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks, and synthesis maintenance until mid December. Chongqing MDI Factory’s 400000 ton/year device year-end storage and maintenance plan. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans in mid November. As well as the 80000 ton/year plant of Dongcao Ruian, due to the maintenance of the mother liquor plant in Japan, the output ratio has decreased, and the transportation of the mother liquor has been greatly affected, affecting the production of its Dongcao Ruian distillation unit. Overall, the domestic supply has significantly shrunk, while the foreign supply is expected to remain, and there may be a possibility of import supply filling. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

 

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene, the domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the crude oil futures market is weak, leading to a downward revision of the main enterprise listing. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 7685.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market continues to rise, and transportation is limited in the north due to weather conditions. Currently, the inventory pressure of aniline factories is relatively low. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 12725.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

 

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream building materials industry has declined, and the overall follow-up is not as good as in the early stage. However, the performance of the refrigerator and household appliances, formaldehyde free panels, and automotive industries is still good, and the market is slow to follow up, with limited driving force. The focus is on just following up. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

 

In the future market forecast, with the current situation of supply and maintenance shrinking, the overall market support still exists, but the downstream follow-up force is relatively average. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be mainly organized in a narrow range.

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Domestic sulfuric acid prices increased by 3.05% this week (11.6-11.12)

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The sulfuric acid price has increased from 262.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.05%, and the weekend price has decreased by 26.23% year-on-year.

 

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm increases

 

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

 

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 946.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 970.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.46%. Over the weekend, prices have decreased by 28.85% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has seen a significant increase, with market prices rising from 3200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 8.33%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.66% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.58% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

 

In mid to late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has significantly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

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Nickel prices fluctuated and fell this week (11.6-11.10)

1、 Trend analysis

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of November 10th, the spot nickel quotation was 142850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 29.26%.

 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 9 times and risen 2 times, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

 

Nickel industry chain

 

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

 

povidone Iodine

On the supply side, multiple institutions have given predictions that the surplus of primary nickel will continue to exceed 200000 tons next year. In October 2023, the total domestic refined nickel production was 23355 tons, an increase of 0.82% month on month and 49.48% year on year; From January to October 2023, the cumulative production of refined nickel in China reached 198122 tons, an increase of 36.17% year-on-year. At present, the equipment production capacity of domestic refining nickel enterprises is 28667 tons, the operating capacity is 26667 tons, the operating rate is 93.02%, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.47%.

 

In terms of demand, the consumption of ternary precursors is poor, resulting in a decrease in production scheduling. In November, the domestic crude stainless steel production was 2.959 million tons, a decrease of 9.42% month on month and 5.88% year on year. Among them, the 300 series production was 1.405 million tons, a decrease of 10.31% month on month and 12.23% year on year.

 

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

 

In summary, Federal Reserve officials spoke with a hawkish tone, coupled with the weak nickel fundamentals that have not yet improved. Recently, there have been signs of depletion of LME inventory, but in the early stage, the decline of Lunni was rapid, and the domestic nickel valuation was relatively high. The recent appreciation of the RMB has put pressure on domestic nickel. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.

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Narrowing supply side and rebound in caustic soda prices

Price trend

 

Sodium Molybdate

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda has continued to decline since mid October and has rebounded this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in the Shandong market was 822 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price in the Shandong market was around 836 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 1.7%. On November 8th, the chlor alkali index was 1025 points, a decrease of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 43.96% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

 

Market aspect

 

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic liquid alkali market prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Mainly because the inventory of maintenance caustic soda enterprises has decreased, and most caustic soda enterprises have increased their prices. Mainstream prices in the domestic market: The mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Shandong region are around 780-850 yuan/ton, the mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Henan region are around 2850-3000 yuan/ton (converted to 100%), and the mainstream market prices for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali in Zhejiang region are around 780-860 yuan/ton.

 

On the supply side

 

From a supply perspective, there have been many maintenance companies recently, resulting in a narrowing of the supply side and a slight easing of the pressure on caustic soda supply.

 
In terms of demand

 

Data shows that the recent operating rate of alumina plants is around 80%, and the operating rate of adhesive short fibers is around 77%. The downstream pressure phenomenon has been alleviated, and the demand for caustic soda in the downstream is slightly better than before. The purchasing enthusiasm has slightly increased, and the price of caustic soda has increased.

 

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, domestic liquid alkali prices have stopped falling and rebounded, some devices have been repaired, and the pressure on enterprises has slowed down. Downstream demand is more positive than before. Overall, it is expected that the future trend of caustic soda prices may be mainly upward, depending on downstream market demand.

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Weak and Stable Operation of Propylene Glycol Market

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 8, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to early November. Compared to October 1 (propylene glycol reference price 8466), the price was reduced by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.33%.

 

Melamine

Looking back on October, the domestic propylene glycol market can be described as “not yet in the silver decade, but encountering a cold winter”. In October, the propylene glycol market continued to move towards low levels amidst fluctuations. Entering November, the market situation has reached a low point in the early stage, and the profit of propylene glycol has been continuously narrowing. Therefore, although the current demand is still average, some propylene glycol manufacturers and suppliers are not willing to continue to lower prices, and have a strong desire for stability and growth. However, without obvious positive support, the market is difficult to rise, and the overall market has entered a stage of weak stability and consolidation. As of November 8th, the domestic propylene glycol market price has entered the range of 7900-8300 yuan/ton.

 

A brief analysis of the current supply and demand situation of propylene glycol:

 

On the supply side: Currently, there are devices in the propylene glycol field that are still undergoing maintenance, but due to weak demand, the overall supply of propylene glycol is still relatively loose, and the pace of shipment is slow, resulting in a stalemate in supply and demand transmission.

 

Sodium Molybdate

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for propylene glycol is showing signs of looseness, with limited support from the demand side to the market. New inquiries on the market have followed up coldly, while downstream orders are mainly bought and used, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

 

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

 

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is light. Although the slight rebound in the raw material side has provided a slight boost to the cost support of propylene glycol, the demand side has always constrained the market, and there is still some bearish sentiment on the market. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

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Production enterprises boost the butadiene market slightly higher

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 9275 yuan/ton to 9516 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.60% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 9.26%, and a year-on-year increase of 33.16%.

 

Melamine

The domestic butadiene market has slightly increased. Some early maintenance devices have been restarted one after another, and there has been a slight increase in port inventory. The spot supply has slightly increased, but the factory prices of production enterprises have been strongly pushed up, making it difficult to find low-priced goods in the market. The downstream synthetic rubber industry is still operating well, with some support from the demand side. With some bidding sources increasing prices and transactions, the market price of butadiene continues to rise.

 

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and sorted out. As of the close on November 3rd, the international crude oil futures prices have closed down, with the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract at 84.89 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.96 US dollars or 2.3%. The strong performance of the US dollar will have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply tension has not improved, mainly due to concerns in the Middle East region, and the risk of oil supply has not yet been lifted. The demand side will be dragged down by the economic outlook. The future game between supply and demand will intensify. Overall, oil prices will remain high and volatile in the near future, and the amplitude may continue to expand.

 

In terms of naphtha, the domestic naphtha market is weak and has been sorted out. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of Shangshang Society’s naphtha is 7939.00 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and the restructuring lacks substantial benefits. A small amount of demand for ethylene cracking has been released, and the overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak. Trading is sluggish, and refineries are reducing prices for shipments. The cost of butadiene is mixed.

 

On the supply side, the main production enterprises, Sinopec, and various sales companies have raised the price of butadiene by 200 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton. The 64000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal has been operating steadily, with a small amount of goods available for export. The price has been reduced by 150 yuan/ton to 8950 yuan/ton.

 

Sodium Molybdate

On the demand side, although the downstream Ineos Benling 600000 tons/year ABS device is put into operation, the total production capacity of the ABS industry has increased to 7.705 million tons/year. However, due to the load reduction and shutdown of devices such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Huizhou Li Changrong, the capacity utilization rate of the SBS industry decreased by 7.41 percentage points month on month. The demand side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

 

On November 3rd, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1025- $1035 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1055 and $1065 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $745-755 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 695-705 euros per ton.

 

According to future predictions, the short-term trend of the domestic butadiene market is still relatively strong, which is mainly boosted by supply side news. With the support of high supplier prices, it is difficult for the market to have a batch of low-priced goods to supplement. However, profits in some downstream industries are under pressure, and market transactions also suppress the market. Business Society butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may enter a stalemate and consolidation stage.

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Downstream procurement is not active, and the market for hydrofluoric acid is declining

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.75% compared to the price of 11500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 0.49%.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

On the supply side: The domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has declined this week, with the mainstream prices negotiated in various regions of the country ranging from 11100 to 11500 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for sale, and there has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some manufacturers have inventory backlog, and the hydrofluoric acid market price trend has decreased.

 

Cost side: The domestic price of fluorite has declined, with an average price of 3700 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.66% compared to the beginning of the week’s price of 3762.5 yuan/ton. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased, but there has been strong resistance from downstream towards high priced fluorite recently, and procurement is not active. The factory price of fluorite has been lowered, which has affected the market for hydrofluoric acid.

 

This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid market has declined. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid is 258 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has declined, and there has been a certain decrease in costs. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have reduced their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and negative factors have affected the downward trend of sulfuric acid product market. The low price of sulfuric acid is negative for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, and the hydrofluoric acid market is also declining.

 

Sodium Molybdate

On the demand side: The market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, but the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement just needs to follow up, and some enterprises’ quotas are digested in advance. The monthly average remaining quotas are relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly stable. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end offers have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 27000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry in the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The start of production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish, which is negative for the upstream raw material market, and the hydrofluoric acid market is declining.

 

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, there will be a downward trend in the upstream raw material fluorite market, and a downward trend in the price of sulfuric acid; The downstream refrigerant industry has maintained a low level of construction, coupled with a decrease in enthusiasm for hydrofluoric acid procurement, some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have accumulated inventory, and bearish factors have increased. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may slightly decline in the future.

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Continuous weak demand in October, continuous decline in magnesium prices

On October 31, 2023, the cash and tax inclusive prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various main production areas in China have been running smoothly, with an overall range of 21000 to 21200 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

 

Ex-factory spot exchange including tax in Fugu area is 20900-21000 yuan/ton; Current exchange in Taiyuan area is 21000-21100 yuan/ton; Current exchange in Wenxi area is 21100-21200 yuan/ton; The current exchange in Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan/ton.

 

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots according to the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washed, non wooden pallets and non paid acceptance price, with actual order negotiation as the main approach.

 

Overview of the trend of metal magnesium in October

 

In October, magnesium ingot prices fell under pressure, with a cumulative decline of 3500 yuan/ton since the high point in late September. Downstream demand continued to be weak, and the supply and demand sides were relatively unbalanced. At the beginning of the month, the price of magnesium slightly decreased, and after the holiday, factory inventory slightly increased. Some manufacturers intended to sell at a profit. In the late middle of the month, news of the resumption of work in factories in the main production areas spread, further exacerbating the cliff like decline in magnesium prices. At the end of the month, the National Magnesium Industry Conference was held in Chaohu, Anhui, which boosted confidence in the magnesium market, but prices soon fell again.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price in the domestic market on the 31st was 21166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.77% compared to the average market price of 24833.33 yuan/ton in early October (10.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46%.

 

In terms of factories, magnesium factories have varying attitudes and market quotations are relatively chaotic. Due to the concentrated stocking of downstream users before the Double Festival in October, the market demand continued to be low after the festival, and some manufacturers were more proactive in lowering prices for shipments. But there are also some factories with obvious wait-and-see sentiment, and considering the current low prices, they will not provide a quotation for the time being.

 

Sodium Molybdate

In terms of demand, there is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market. Since the National Day holiday, market transactions have been at a low level, and the supply of low-priced goods in the market is gradually increasing, with downstream customers pressing prices severely. And under the influence of “buying up instead of buying down”, downstream customers mainly operate cautiously.

 

In October, the spot price of ferrosilicon mainly decreased. The market quotation in Ningxia was around 6780-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6854 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.42%. The supply level of ferrosilicon itself is relatively high, and downstream consumption is still weak. The supply and demand sides are in a game stage.

The orchid charcoal market rose first and then fell in October. In the first ten days, mainstream calcium carbide enterprises in the downstream raised the purchasing price of blue charcoal by 79.1 to 80 yuan/ton, and blue charcoal enterprises gradually raised prices ranging from 30 to 80 yuan/ton, with the first round of price increases landing. Recently, the prices of raw materials have fallen, and the bottom support of blue charcoal has weakened. The bearish sentiment in the market has intensified. On the 27th, mainstream calcium carbide enterprises lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized materials of blue charcoal by 40 yuan/ton. Affected by the continuous losses of downstream calcium carbide, the construction of calcium carbide enterprises has decreased, the demand for blue charcoal market has weakened, and the overall inventory of Fugu blue charcoal enterprises has increased. As of October 27th, the stock price in the Shenmu market has been lowered by 39.55 yuan/ton, with an execution of 1282.1 yuan/ton; Reduce the price of small materials by 39.5 yuan/ton and execute 1243 yuan/ton.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Overall, the magnesium ingot market in October was affected by the continued weak downstream demand, and there was some pressure on supply, making it difficult to stop the decline and stabilize in the short term. At the same time, there is market news that there is a factory resumption plan, leading to optimistic expectations for future factory magnesium ingot inventory in the downstream. In the absence of positive news to boost, the magnesium ingot market may continue to operate in a weak consolidation mode.

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The price of imported potassium chloride increased by 0.83% in October

1、 Price trend

 

Melamine

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride first fell and then rose in October. The price of potassium chloride first fell from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2875.00 yuan/ton on October 18th, a decrease of 4.17%, and then rose to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.22%. On October 30th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 95.24, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 45.45% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 63.50% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors fell first and then rose this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was around 2900-2950 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton; 60% of the red particles in the port are around 2950-3000 yuan/ton, an increase of about 50 yuan/ton; Border trade of 62% Russian white potassium is around 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of approximately 3.2-3.3 million tons.

 

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this month, from 7550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7420.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.72%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 19.78% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this month, from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 13.18% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and downstream manufacturers have a general enthusiasm for purchasing potassium chloride.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

The trend of potassium chloride market in mid to early November may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Winter storage is approaching, downstream agricultural demand is expected to increase, industrial demand is average, and potassium chloride prices may fluctuate and rise in the future.

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