According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7530.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price remains unchanged on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.25%.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. Recently, the market price of potassium chloride has been fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the port’s white potassium prices are mostly priced at 2820-2880 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market is still in a slow downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 20th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from December 11th at 1720.00 yuan/ton.

Cost side: International crude oil rebounded after falling. The unexpected rise in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut early next year, coupled with concerns about oversupply; The results of the OPEC+production policy meeting did not meet market expectations; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may come to an end, but there is still a possibility of further rate hikes; The weakening of the US dollar has boosted oil price valuations, coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand.

Supply side: Recently, the import ships of petroleum coke have concentrated at the port, causing the cost of sponge coke to be inverted. The shipping sentiment of traders is average, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke at the port has increased. Recently, the rainy and snowy weather in the north has affected logistics, leading to an increase in the price of ground refined medium sulfur petroleum coke. In addition, the supply of medium sulfur petroleum coke is relatively tight, and downstream demand still exists, resulting in a continuous increase in the price of petroleum coke; The supply of high sulfur petroleum coke is sufficient, the demand is limited, and the overall price is declining.

On the demand side: As of December 14th, there were 364 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 48.53%, a decrease of 11 furnaces compared to the previous period. Among them, there is a decrease of 1 unit in Xinjiang, 5 units in Yunnan, and 6 units in Sichuan. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decline, the operating rate in the southwest region continues to decline, and the northern environmental protection inspection shuts down for insulation. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, while the price of raw petroleum coke has risen. Currently, the demand for aluminum carbon in the market is still acceptable, and the shipment of medium sulfur trace amount calcined coke is stable; The demand in the negative electrode market is weak, which provides weak support for the price of medium sulfur conventional calcined coke market. Currently, the overall weakness of medium sulfur calcined coke is mainly consolidated.

At present, the market for electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, with prices as of December 20th at 18987 yuan/ton. The National Development and Reform Commission has stated its intention to increase efficiency and promote economic development, increase macroeconomic regulation, and spot aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive times. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall petroleum coke market in the local refining industry remains stable, with the end of rainy and snowy weather and the basic recovery of logistics in various regions. Refinery shipments have improved, and downstream demand is still acceptable. We will gradually replenish goods to support the price of petroleum coke in the local refining industry. However, there is currently sufficient inventory of petroleum coke in the refineries, and it is expected that the local refining industry will mainly consolidate in the near future.

Price trend

In mid December, the domestic POM market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the system chart of commodity market analysis, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong region has recently risen and then fluctuated horizontally. The price of raw material methanol has increased in the early stage, which is beneficial for the cost of formaldehyde. However, downstream panel factories have average demand, market trading sentiment is average, formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the support for the POM market is still sufficient.

In terms of supply:

In mid December, the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises slightly adjusted. The industry equipment load is about 86%. In the early stage, the market supply has been reduced, and most enterprises have returned to low levels of inventory. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of enterprises, and the supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In mid December, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption did not show any improvement. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend remained stagnant in mid December. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has stabilized, and there is abundant supply of goods on site, but the inventory position of enterprises is still not high. Manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, but some merchants have increased their shipping pressure, and actual orders tend to be sold at a discounted price. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. It is expected that the POM market will remain stagnant in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market slightly rebounded in mid December, with prices of various wire drawing brands increasing in a narrow range. As of December 18th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7600 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of -0.65% compared to the initial average price level.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, there has been solid news of OPEC’s recent reduction in international crude oil production, with prices rebounding and overall performance rising from a low level. Propylene has been boosted by crude oil, but the price has come under pressure and returned to consolidation. Due to the loosening of propane prices, cost support for PDH has fallen. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is still acceptable.

The flow of raw materials varies in various directions, and the cost side provides significant support for PP. In terms of industry load, the average load of the polypropylene industry was around 73% in mid December, which was slightly lower than the previous period. Although the overall supply of goods is abundant, production and inventory have steadily declined, and the pressure on on-site supply has eased. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 42%, while the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with poor trading activity on the exchange and overall consolidation of the wire drawing material market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also declined. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7600 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 7.13% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have maintained a stable load, with an operating rate of over 39%. The digestion speed of end products is relatively strong due to frequent outbreaks of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market is increasing narrowly, which does not provide significant support for the price of non-woven fabrics. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market saw a narrow decline in mid December. As of December 18th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8075 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -1.97%, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.78%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not yet significant. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rebounded narrowly in mid December. The trend of upstream raw materials fluctuates, and there is still support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend towards a small amount of rigid demand. The load of the PP device has been reduced to alleviate some supply pressure. At present, the supply and demand of PP are still at a weak level, and the market momentum is not high. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a consolidation operation in the short term.

This week, the melamine market is mainly stable, with a strong market atmosphere. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7250.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price for urea on December 14th was 2567.50, a decrease of 1.31% compared to December 1st (2601.67). Recently, the raw material urea market has been consolidating narrowly, and the cost is facing significant support from the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: At present, the production of melamine on the supply side is at a high level, and downstream demand is being replenished in an appropriate amount. Purchasing in the market is active, and melamine enterprises have sufficient advance orders. The demand side support is strong, and the trading atmosphere in the melamine market has improved.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that under the support of recent costs and demand, the melamine market is operating steadily with a strong atmosphere. Enterprises are mainly executing pending orders in an orderly manner. It is expected that the melamine market may continue to operate steadily with a strong atmosphere in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices and enterprise operating conditions.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11766 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.28%.

The overall quotation of domestic activated carbon manufacturers is stable, with some increases. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Market inquiries have increased, and there has been no significant increase in transactions. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The atmosphere of the activated carbon market has slightly rebounded, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black continued to decline this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is at 9766 yuan/ton. Although the price of raw coal tar has slightly declined, the production pressure on carbon black enterprises is still high, and downstream enterprises have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, which has caused serious price pressure on the carbon black market.

In terms of raw materials, in the first week of December, the price of high-temperature coal tar from carbon black raw materials continued to decline weakly. As of the 10th, the coal tar market quotation was 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1300 yuan or 12.01% compared to early November. At present, the operating rate of coke enterprises in the market is not high, and the supply of coal tar is continuously decreasing. The supply of coal tar in the coal tar field is relatively scarce, but the market conditions of downstream products are still mainly downward, with no positive expectations for the time being. Negative factors have suppressed the price of coal tar, and most downstream factories in the field are still dominated by bearish sentiment. The high-temperature coal tar market is still mainly bearish, with weak support for the cost of carbon black. It is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Since October, the price of carbon black in the market has remained high. Despite the good consolidation and profitability of the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance, and their enthusiasm for starting work has remained high. There is sufficient supply of carbon black in the market, with some carbon black enterprises in the main production areas having significantly higher inventory. In November, some carbon black enterprises suspended production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises.

In terms of terminals: Under the influence of cold winter weather, the impact of the off-season is gradually becoming apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. The demand for carbon black terminals has weakened, and the export order volume of downstream tire industry enterprises has fallen, and the operating rate has declined compared to the previous period. The downstream tire industry is purchasing raw material carbon black at low prices, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.

In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to December 11th, 2023, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fluctuated and declined. Last week, it was at 7066.67 yuan/ton, while this week it was 6700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.19%.

On December 8th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.23 per barrel, with an increase of $1.89 or 2.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 75.84 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.79 US dollars or 2.4%. Prediction: In the short term, oil prices may still face downward pressure. In the medium term, OPEC+will continue to play its role in stabilizing oil prices and regulating the market. There is also data indicating a decrease in OPEC+11 production, marking the first monthly decline recorded since July. In the medium term, it is not ruled out that OPEC+will continue to deepen its production reduction policy. The future supply-demand game will continue. Increased probability of wide range fluctuations in oil prices

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been lowered twice in December, with a cumulative decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The listed price of Sinopec pure benzene continues to be implemented at 6800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On December 4th, the price of pure benzene was 6867 yuan/ton, and on Friday (December 8th), the price of pure benzene was 6703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.58% from last week and an increase of 3.12% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall decline of the pure benzene industry chain this week, with continuous decline in crude oil throughout the week, has dragged down the market mentality of the industry chain. Coupled with the continuous news of maintenance in the downstream, the market’s future demand expectations have overall declined. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the pure benzene market has been under pressure and the main flow of the hydrogenated benzene market has followed suit.

This week, the mainstream of the pure benzene market has declined. Sinopec lowered its listing price to 6800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in the main production area has also been lowered to 6600-6800 yuan/ton. This week, due to the decline in profits, some companies underwent maintenance, and the overall operating rate slightly declined, but there is still a need for essential goods. Overall, the pure benzene industry chain is still operating weakly, with weak market expectations. In terms of demand, some downstream devices will be shut down during the week, and the market expects more devices to have maintenance or shutdown plans in the future. The market expects weak demand in the future. Overall, the pure benzene industry chain is still operating weakly, with weak market expectations. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and it is expected that the pure benzene industry chain will be under pressure in the future, with a stable and weak market operation.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7550.00 yuan/ton this week. The current price has increased by 0.67% compared to the previous month, and the current price has decreased by 18.16% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has stabilized this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the market has remained stable this week. The available supply of potassium chloride in the cost side market is limited, and the price of potassium chloride in the market is fluctuating and consolidating. Downstream demand remains low, and the potassium carbonate market is consolidating. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium is priced at around 2850 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, domestic potassium chloride prices have fallen, and cost support has been poor. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

In December, the market situation of butyl acrylate improved, with a higher focus. Firstly, demand is weak, and the price of butyl acrylate has increased significantly. This is mainly due to the unexpected increase in upstream raw material prices of butanol and octanol, which has boosted the cost of butyl acrylate manufacturers and greatly boosted market confidence. As a result, the low market supply has improved, and the quotation has also increased. As of Thursday, the market price of butyl acrylate in East China is based on 9800-11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton compared to the end of last month.

The price of upstream acrylic acid rebounded from a low level and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply shortages in the Shandong propylene market and the impact of crude oil decline. Recently, the market price has experienced a certain decline. In addition, the demand for downstream water reducing agents of acrylic acid, resin SAP and other industries is average, and the market will tend to operate stronger.

In addition, the trend of the ethyl acrylate market is stable, and the market atmosphere is mostly wait-and-see. Downstream users mainly buy small orders in the market. However, due to the rise of related products such as butyl acrylate, the market price has also been relatively strong recently.

From the current profit situation of the industrial chain, it can be seen that butyl acrylate continues to suffer losses. Although the price of butyl acrylate has increased this week, due to the significant increase in raw material prices, the loss of butyl acrylate has increased compared to the end of last month, and the factory is still maintaining its price. Therefore, although the market has limited trading volume due to high prices, there are not many sources of goods in the market, and there is support from cost factors. Therefore, the short-term market for butyl acrylate may still be strong.

Overall, the current rise in the acrylic and ester markets is mainly affected by the rise in raw materials, with downstream seasonal demand weakening and overall industry production declining. But currently, with some products experiencing continuous losses and no significant improvement, the overall industry lacks confidence in the future. It is expected that the market price of butyl acrylate will continue to fluctuate mainly based on the trend of raw material prices.