1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of stearic acid 1840 in February was between 7850 yuan/ton and 9000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price around 8500 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 0.6%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Starting from February 1st, the Malaysian palm oil market has declined, with sluggish market transactions and a weak decline in the palm oil market. After the holiday, palm oil rose and spot prices followed suit. In February, the overall palm oil market oscillated and rose. After the holiday, stearic acid factories have gradually resumed work, with an industry load rate of around 4.5 floors. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices will remain stable with an increase after the year. At present, the spot market situation is average, and the trading situation is relatively light. The PVC industry is currently operating at a high level. At present, the on-site inventory is about 580000 tons, an increase of over 14% compared to before the holiday, indicating sufficient inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In February, the price of stearic acid showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the demand for concentrated consumption of upstream oils and fats increased. The palm oil market will continue to remain strong, and the cost will face strong support from spot goods. However, imported goods are gradually entering the port, and there is ample inventory in the stearic acid market. The downstream PVC trading situation is relatively light, mainly focused on consumption and storage. Therefore, it is expected that the stearic acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 29, 2024 was 18876.67 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices have steadily increased this week, up 160 yuan/ton from Monday’s market average price of 18716.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

Based on monthly data, the current price is close to the pre holiday (February 8th) aluminum price of 18860 yuan/ton%. In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Overview of fundamentals this week

Supply side influencing factors

On the news side, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes are limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan has good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan’s early production reduction has been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan’s production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation.

Demand side influencing factors

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream consumption gradually recovered, the auto and photovoltaic sectors started to work fairly well, and the construction sector started to recover at a low rate recently. The overall demand has improved.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of February 29, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1682.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% from 1670.00 yuan/ton on February 26.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating in recent times, with a significant increase in crude oil prices during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, the crude oil market is mainly fluctuating in the range. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; The total number of oil and natural gas drilling rigs of state-owned energy enterprises has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and crude oil prices have been suppressed.

On the supply side, the price of petroleum coke fluctuated this week, with downstream rigid demand procurement supporting the price of petroleum coke; The shipment of imported sponge coke is stable, and traders mainly execute orders.

On the demand side: As of February 22, China has started operating 308 silicon metal furnaces, with an overall furnace opening rate of 41.1%, an increase of 1 furnace compared to last week. This week, the situation of industrial silicon furnace opening has stabilized, and the market is still in the post holiday recovery period. Enterprises are basically starting production according to the pre holiday scale, and the number of starts will gradually increase. The supply is expected to increase this week. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, sulfur calcined coke remained stable, with average transactions. Downstream demand release was relatively slow, and the operation of the calcined coke market was cautious.

This week, aluminum prices have slightly increased, and the traditional peak consumption season is approaching. Downstream demand may gradually recover, and the production capacity and operating rate of China’s leading aluminum downstream industry enterprises are expected to rise. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises still have a demand for petroleum coke, and multi-dimensional support is needed for procurement.

Market forecast: In March, the coking plant in the refinery will enter the peak maintenance season, and the supply of petroleum coke from local refineries may decrease; But currently, downstream demand is limited, and the market maintains a focus on essential procurement; In addition, the continuous arrival of imported petroleum coke at the port may increase the storage of petroleum coke in the port. Overall, it is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will slightly increase in the near future.

Zinc prices fell first and then rose in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of zinc was 20528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the zinc price of 20908 yuan/ton on February 1st; The zinc price has increased by 1.28% compared to February 19th, 20268 yuan/ton. In February, the zinc market crossed the Spring Festival. Prior to the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises in the zinc market had increased parking, resulting in weak demand for zinc. Inventory in the London and Shanghai futures markets increased significantly, leading to an increase in zinc supply and a significant fluctuation in zinc prices; After the holiday, demand for zinc in the market slowly rebounded, inventory in the zinc market fell, and zinc prices stopped falling and rose.

London LME zinc ingot inventory increase

During the Spring Festival, LME zinc ingot inventory in the London futures market accumulated significantly. As of February 19th, LME zinc ingot inventory was 270050 tons, a significant increase from February 6th inventory of 196775 tons. After the holiday, zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased. Overall, the supply of zinc ingots in the London futures market increased in February, and the supply of zinc in the international market increased. Zinc prices fluctuated and fell before the holiday, but rebounded after the holiday.

Increase in zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market

In February, the zinc ingot inventory in the Shanghai futures market increased significantly, with a slight decrease in zinc ingot inventory in the latter half of the year. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased significantly, and the supply of zinc in the market increased. In February, zinc prices fluctuated and fell. After the holiday, as demand rebounded, zinc prices stopped falling and rebounded.

Slow increase in demand after holidays

Before the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises in the zinc market parked more, resulting in weak demand for zinc. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises slowly resumed production, and demand for zinc slowly increased. However, downstream enterprises have not fully resumed production, and the overall production did not meet market expectations. As a result, zinc prices fluctuated and fell overall in February. Insufficient demand after the holiday, insufficient support for the rise of the zinc market, and strong fluctuations in the zinc market in February.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, zinc ingot inventories in the London futures market LME and Shanghai futures market increased significantly in February, leading to an increase in zinc supply in the market; Downstream enterprises resumed production after the holiday, coupled with a warming macroeconomic environment, the demand for zinc in the market has rebounded. Overall, the zinc market saw a double increase in supply and demand in February, with zinc prices falling first and then rising. However, downstream construction did not meet market expectations, and the support for zinc price increases was insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. The current price has dropped by 19.63% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in February. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market for raw material potassium chloride has fluctuated downward, with poor cost support and poor downstream operating rates. After the Spring Festival, the transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market has been weak, and the market has continued to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7150-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in February was downward. The prices of salt lakes and Zangge potassium chloride are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, there is sufficient supply of imported potassium, and the price of 62% white potassium is mostly between 2430-2450 yuan/ton, with poor cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly increase in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, 1 # tin ingot in East China fluctuated and fell this week (2.18-2.23). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 214400 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 216660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.05%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of supply, the progress of RKAB mines in Indonesia is slow, and imports from Wa State are still in the recovery stage. In the near future, the supply of tin mines will still be mainly from other regions, and the overall supply at the mining end remains tight. In terms of demand, downstream demand has shown good performance recently. In January, welding material companies started production higher, and the overall market mentality has improved. After the holiday, downstream related companies actively resumed work. Currently, production has steadily rebounded, and the festive atmosphere in the market is still strong. Downstream companies have a low demand for restocking. Overall, the upstream and downstream are actively resuming work, and it will still take some time to resume normal production. The tight supply at the mining end has boosted market sentiment. This week, as enterprises gradually resume normal production and the market atmosphere is expected to improve, the market will remain stable in the short term.

Related data:

On February 25th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 25th, the non-ferrous index was at 1091 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.06% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.74% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 8th week of 2024 (2.19-2.23), there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity with a growth rate of more than 5%, accounting for 4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were nickel (7.20%), silver (1.78%), and copper (1.44%). There are 14 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium oxide (-5.56%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.50%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-4.40%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.94%.

Market Overview: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 2, 2024, the reference price for the pure polyester yarn market in Shandong Province was reported at 12475 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; The reference price for polyester cotton yarn market is 17260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

This week’s market situation: Downstream restocking has basically ended this week (1.27-2.2), yarn factory sales are coming to an end, trading is gradually stagnant, yarn inventory has dropped to a temporary low point, and the pressure on yarn factories has eased. The start-up of yarn enterprises has significantly decreased. Some enterprises plan to have a holiday in early February, while others plan to start around December 28th. After the new year, the start-up time will be concentrated after the eighth day of the first lunar month in Fujian. Due to rainy and snowy weather in many parts of the country in the coming week, some textile enterprises have not yet reached a unified holiday time, but many workers have returned home, resulting in a shutdown rate of 25%. The operating rate of large yarn factories is basically stable, with an average of 80% to 90% in Xinjiang and around 80-90% in Henan. The average operating rate of large yarn factories in the Yangtze River regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui is 80-90%.

Textile companies offer less, with the mainstream T32S ring spinning in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at around 11800 tons, the mainstream of 50S at around 15450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of 32S at around 10500 yuan/ton. The mainstream price for Fujian Changle T32S is 13000 yuan/ton.

Polyester cotton yarn is gradually coming to an end, with low trading volume. The price of polyester cotton yarn in Shandong region is stable. The mainstream price for ring spinning TC65/35 32S is 15800-16500 yuan/ton including tax for short delivery, while CVC60/40 32S is priced at 19200-19700 yuan/ton. The reference price for T/C 65/35 32S centers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 16550 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, downstream textile factories will begin to experience regional holidays, and there will be more shutdowns of textile and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, such as Shaoxing, with yarn shipments gradually stopping. At the end of January, the operating rate of the yarn factory accelerated its decline, orders came to an end, trading was light, and logistics basically stopped. The yarn price is running steadily, and the pre holiday market has basically ended. According to analysts from Business Society, overall, with the arrival of the Spring Festival next week, the prices of pure polyester and polyester cotton yarn in the market will remain stable, in a state of price without market.

According to the commodity market analysis system, from January 29th to February 4th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 6437 yuan/ton to 6425 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.19%, a month on month decrease of 3.20%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.29%. Many traders have left the market, and there has been little change in the prices quoted by production enterprises. At present, the demand is average, the cost support for ethanol is insufficient, and domestic ethanol prices are weak, resulting in slow shipments.

On the cost side, the domestic corn market continues to be weak. The continued weakness of corn prices has led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. The domestic corn market supply has continued to be loose, and corn prices continue to operate weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rate of production enterprises in different regions, with 25.68% operating in the East China region; 83.12% of construction started in the Northeast region; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 23.16%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China, waiting for news from factories or whether there is a shift in production. Ethanol production in East China remains low in the short term. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. Short term recovery of large factory facilities. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. Downstream multi-dimensional holding of essential orders is the main focus, and short-term ethanol demand is mixed.

According to future market forecasts, as the Spring Festival approaches, corn ethanol enterprises in the Northeast region will resume normal production. However, logistics are gradually being closed, and downstream stocking is nearing completion. The market is about to enter a stagnant state. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

This week, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3343.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3356.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 6.15%.

Supply side: Fluorite enterprises are gradually on holiday, and the market is weak and stable

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some enterprises are gradually taking a break, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid is declining, and refrigerant production is at a low level

This week, the domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined, with mainstream prices negotiated in various regions of the country ranging from 10000 to 10300 yuan/ton. The hydrofluoric acid market has continued to decline this week, with some units still in shutdown. There has been little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have fewer orders for hydrofluoric acid. The decline in hydrofluoric acid prices is detrimental to the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, but downstream business is not good, resulting in a slight decline in the domestic fluorite market.

The market for some downstream refrigerant products is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some production enterprises are gradually accumulating inventory. In the new year, supply is gradually reduced, reducing supply pressure. There is insufficient demand for dealer procurement, and the price of R22 is mainly maintained at a low level. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 28000 to 29000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction volume in the refrigerant industry is relatively flat, and the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish with average demand. The price of fluorite has slightly decreased.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market trend is still promising.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines. Some mines have stopped production and are undergoing safety inspections. However, fluorite enterprises are gradually taking a break and are temporarily not shipping. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend is declining. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the fluorite market price may remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices dropped significantly in January. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 112.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 92.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 17.78%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 39.94% year-on-year.

On January 31, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 24.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 82.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 35.37% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side, domestic hydrochloric acid factory prices have fluctuated this month, and manufacturers have limited inventory.

Cost side: The price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the upstream liquid chlorine market for hydrochloric acid saw a significant increase in January, with an overall increase of 100 yuan/ton. Cost support is good.

Demand side: Downstream demand weakens

From the perspective of downstream demand, the liquid ammonia and alternative support for ammonium chloride raw materials have weakened, coupled with continued loose supply and difficulty in significantly increasing demand in the short term. In January, the ammonium chloride market fell sharply, with market prices dropping from 662.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 627.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.27% at the end of the month. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early February, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine price has significantly increased, with good cost support. However, the downstream ammonium chloride market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.