According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3162.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.80% compared to last Wednesday’s price.

Recently, the formic acid market has declined, and the mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is between 2600-3200 yuan/ton. Recently, the main raw material methanol market price has been rising, with increased cost support. However, the demand side lacks favorable support, downstream buying intentions are not high, inquiry procurement is mainly based on demand, market transactions are average, manufacturer inventory has accumulated, and discounts are used to promote transactions. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market has declined.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current market cost support is relatively strong, but the demand side performance is flat, and market transactions are just in demand. It is expected that the formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the supply side situation.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market remained stable with an upward trend, but returned to the market after the holiday. The price of magnesium ingots was supported by the cost side, leading to an increase in prices. Additionally, some downstream enterprises have increased their centralized procurement and replenishment, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. However, downstream acceptance is relatively limited in the later stage, market trading is limited, and the support for the increase in magnesium prices is not strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18466.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% compared to the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand

The overall supply and demand pattern has not undergone substantial changes. At present, some manufacturers are considering the current production factors, maintaining a firm quotation and not shipping at a low price. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have restocking behavior on the first day after the holiday, while most downstream enterprises still have pre holiday inventory to consume, and downstream demand has not significantly increased yet.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6700-6800 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6797.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% from the beginning of the month. There is continuous good news in the ferrosilicon market, and there is a shortage of low-priced spot goods. Currently, manufacturers are basically scheduling production orders. With the shift of the price center of ferrosilicon, the profits of enterprises continue to recover, and there are more manufacturers resuming production. There is room for increased production in the later stage, and it is expected that the price of ferrosilicon will be strong in the short term.

This week, the national blue charcoal market remained stable and slightly strong. As of May 11th, the price of medium materials in the Shenmu market was 860-960 yuan/ton, the price of small materials was 750-900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface was 610-660 yuan/ton, all of which were factory prices including taxes in cash; The mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 890-1000 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 660-700 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory prices including taxes in cash.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, after a slight increase in the price of magnesium ingots, market procurement has not increased, and downstream acceptance of high prices is not high. Therefore, the further boost to the rise in magnesium prices is not enough. Both supply and demand sides mainly rely on transactions of essential demand, and it is expected that the short-term magnesium ingot market will operate steadily.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 107200.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market is mainly stable. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has decreased narrowly, while the price of upstream lithium carbonate has fluctuated narrowly. The cost support is slightly weak, while the supply side support is still acceptable. Downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory, and high nickel demand is average. The market transaction atmosphere is flat, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is stable but weak.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 10th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 109200.00, an increase of 0.74% compared to May 1st (108400.00). After the holiday, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable and slightly increased, providing limited support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, short-term cost support may be average, coupled with reduced downstream demand, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the short term, the lithium hydroxide market may operate weakly and steadily, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The market for ortho xylene remained stable this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 9th, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on May 1st, which was 8300 yuan/ton. The industrial chain support is limited, and the ortho xylene market remained stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene fell weakly, and the cost support for adjacent xylene was limited this week; The price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased, and the demand for ortho xylene is insufficient, with limited cost and demand support. The price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized this week.

The price of mixed xylene raw material has slightly decreased

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 9th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from the price of mixed xylene on May 1st, which was 7680 yuan/ton. The high price of crude oil has fallen, and the cost of mixed xylene has decreased; Downstream enterprises are experiencing an increase in maintenance, resulting in weak demand for mixed xylene. In the second quarter, some mixed xylene equipment has maintenance plans, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. Both supply and demand have declined, and mixed xylene is facing significant downward pressure with insufficient upward support.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market slightly declined

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 9th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 7720 yuan/ton. In May, phthalic anhydride continued its downward trend in late April and slightly declined. Insufficient cost support, stabilizing the price of phthalic anhydride; The demand is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride is weak and tends to stabilize. The high price of phthalic anhydride in Naifa has fallen, and the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries has weakened.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene has slightly decreased, and the pressure of neighboring xylene cost decline still exists; In terms of supply and demand, the supply of ortho xylene is tight and the demand is weak, with insufficient support for the rise of ortho xylene. Overall, there is insufficient supply and demand support for cost reduction, and there is still downward pressure on the neighboring benzene market in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in April. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% from the beginning of the month price of 7587.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.14%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In April, the price of industrial naphthalene slightly increased, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In April, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the beginning of the month’s price of 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site facilities was stable. In the short term, the crude oil price trend increased, and the price of mixed xylene rose. The rise in ortho benzene market provided strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market increased.

On the demand side, the on-demand procurement market in the DOP market has slightly declined

In April, the price trend of downstream DOP market slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the price was 9787.5 yuan/ton, a 1.04% decrease from the beginning of the month’s price of 9890 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was not good. The mainstream price of DOP was 9700-9800 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride was poor, limiting the price increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices is mainly volatile, while the price of ortho xylene is stable. The downstream DOP market is mainly volatile and low. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. There is a lack of positive support on the market, and it is expected that the market price of ortho xylene will be mainly volatile in the future.

In April, the domestic market for trichloromethane saw a weak consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from the 2780 yuan/ton in early April.

Since April, on the one hand, downstream production has remained stable at a low level, and terminal procurement performance has been mediocre. On the other hand, raw material methanol has experienced narrow fluctuations, liquid chlorine prices have fallen from high levels, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened, resulting in a weak consolidation of the trichloromethane market.

In April, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating with a narrow fluctuation, and as of the end of April, the domestic methane chloride production was around 6.80%.

In April, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine fell from a high level. The cost support for trichloromethane weakened. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2655 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% from 2623 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; At the end of April, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was around 400 yuan/ton, a decrease from the high of 700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the downstream refrigerant R22 started operating at a stable low level, with weak support for the rigid demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that the cost of trichloromethane still has support; Downstream refrigerant production remains at a low level, with limited support for the demand for trichloromethane. Overall, the trend of trichloromethane is mainly weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% from the beginning of the month’s price of 24166.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 21.14% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.37% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Entering April, supported by the significant increase in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices in the early stage, coupled with the arrival of the peak season for refrigerant demand, cost and demand support, manufacturers raised the factory price of R22 again at the beginning of the month, driving the domestic R22 market price to continue to rise. With the overall fluctuation and stabilization of raw material costs, manufacturers continue to raise prices. In mid month, the domestic R22 market price remained stable and continued to move forward. In late October, raw material prices rose again, and with cost support, the domestic R22 market price continued to operate at a high level.

Affected by the comprehensive rebound in domestic prices of hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene in the early stage, the rising raw material costs have provided strong support for the domestic R134a price. In addition, as downstream enters the peak stocking season, manufacturers have once again raised the factory price of R134a in April, driving the domestic R134a price to continue to rise. In the middle of the month, the overall price of raw materials stabilized, and the domestic price of R134a also remained stable. In the latter half of the year, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose again, and the cost of raw materials rose again. Affected by the rapid rise in refrigerant prices before, the overall market price in the latter half of the year tended to stabilize, and the domestic price of R134a remained strong at a high level.

In terms of raw materials, overall, after entering April, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices have shown a rapid and significant upward trend, and the continuous rise in raw material costs will provide strong support for domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, after the implementation of refrigerant quotas, the refrigerant industry will enter a business cycle in the new year. In addition, downstream demand will not decrease in the second quarter, and raw material costs will continue to rise. With the support of costs and demand, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong in May.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the price of acetic anhydride on April 22nd, which was 5737.50 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of acetic acid has been continuously decreasing, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, weak downstream demand, and mainly enter the market on demand. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates narrowly.

Weak downturn in the acetic acid market

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.80% from the price of acetic acid on April 22nd, which was 3450 yuan/ton. The on-site acetic acid plant has been repaired and restored, with an increase in capacity utilization and an increase in market supply. Manufacturers are actively shipping, while downstream suppliers are generally stocking up before the holiday. The enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is weak, and market trading is poor. In order to promote the continuous reduction of acetic acid prices for shipping, actual transactions on the site are limited, and the acetic acid market is weak and downward, which has a negative impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst from Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of acetic acid has fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a clear shipping sentiment; Downstream follow-up is more on demand, and businesses have limited entry into the market for purchasing. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is expected to remain stable, with limited supplier support. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will remain stable for the time being, and specific attention will be paid to changes in upstream prices.

Main domestic hydrogenated benzene market prices this month (unit: yuan/ton)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in April 2024, the hydrogenated benzene market rose in the first half of the month and fluctuated in the second half of the month. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8666.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.56%.

Crude oil prices: In April, the international oil price trend first rose and then fell. In the first half of the month, the oil price fluctuated from a high level before falling, and in the second half, it fluctuated. In the first half of the month, due to the unstable geopolitical situation, especially concerns about the possible escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel after April, it provided strong support for international oil prices. On the other hand, US energy companies have cut the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for the fourth consecutive week, the first time since September 2023. Finally, the global outlook for future oil demand is optimistic, supported by positive factors, and crude oil prices rose in the first half of April. The risk of conflict in the Middle East region will decrease in the second half of the month, and the market expects that the possibility of the US escalating sanctions on Iran’s oil exports will also decrease. As the market’s concerns slow down, the positive international oil supply has dissipated, to some extent smoothing out the risk premium of crude oil. At the end of the month, due to the expected improvement in crude oil demand and the decrease in US crude oil inventories, crude oil prices rose slightly again. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $83.85 per barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $88.21 per barrel.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In April 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 250 yuan/ton, and the price has not changed since April 7th. Currently, it is still priced at 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8683 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the month, geopolitical warming drove up crude oil prices. After the opening of the Qingming Festival, the pure benzene market continued to rise, driving up the industrial chain market. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene was raised to around 8800 yuan/ton. Later, with the decline of crude oil and news of downstream equipment maintenance, the market slightly adjusted and maintained a high volatility trend. In mid to late April, the overall fluctuation of the pure benzene industry chain was not significant, and the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises remained at 8600-8800 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

In terms of supply, hydrogenation benzene enterprises started construction in the first half of April and the supply was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, raw material prices continued to rise, resulting in lower profits for enterprises. The production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has significantly declined, and some enterprises have plans to repair and park in the future. The market expects a tightening of supply in the future. As demand approaches the end of the month, some downstream enterprises have reported parking plans, and the market expects a decline in future demand, which has a certain impact on the market atmosphere. At the end of the month, the hydrogenated benzene market followed a slight decline in pure benzene. Lack of demand support is expected to put pressure on the hydrogenation benzene market in the future, and the market is expected to operate weakly in the short term.

In April, the price of new pentanediol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 9966.67 yuan/ton, which was a decrease followed by an increase of 2.92% compared to the price of 10266.67 yuan/ton quoted on April 1st; Compared to April 21st, the price of new pentanediol increased by 0.34% to 9933.33 yuan/ton. In April, the price of raw material isobutyraldehyde stopped falling and rose, while the cost of neopentyl glycol increased. The quotation from neopentyl glycol manufacturers also increased.

In early April, the parking and maintenance situation of downstream neopentyl glycol enterprises was relatively concentrated, and the price of neopentyl glycol decreased; In the latter half of the month, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose, supporting costs, and the price of new pentanediol factory rebounded and increased. In April, the prices of new pentanediol manufacturers increased, and the market for new pentanediol rebounded.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7650 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased by 1.10% compared to the isobutyraldehyde price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 11th, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 6.07% to 7212.50 yuan/ton. The high price of crude oil has fallen, while the price of raw material propylene has first risen and then fallen. Downstream inventories of new pentanediol are slowly being depleted, and the overall production of isobutyraldehyde in April has significantly decreased. However, compared to downstream production, the decline in production is limited. In addition, factories in Ningxia have started exporting isobutyraldehyde, which has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The upward momentum of isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened.

The price of raw material formaldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from the formaldehyde price of 1206.67 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 11th, the price of formaldehyde increased by 1.25% to 1197.50 yuan/ton. In April, the raw material methanol market fluctuated upwards, and the price of formaldehyde basically followed the changes in methanol. However, downstream purchases remained in demand, and the receiving sentiment was poor. Formaldehyde was weak in following the rise, and the market slightly rose. In April, formaldehyde enterprises underwent more maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of formaldehyde and an overall positive formaldehyde market.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s new pentanediol products, in terms of cost, the prices of formaldehyde and isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose. In April, the cost of new pentanediol increased, and in terms of supply and demand, the fundamentals of new pentanediol were relatively balanced. Overall, the cost of neopentyl glycol is supporting, and the upward momentum of neopentyl glycol is increasing. However, downstream demand support is limited, and it is expected that the price of neopentyl glycol will stabilize strongly in the future.