According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid experienced an upward trend at the end of February. As of February 24th, the average price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4% from 3125 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The supply side device is running stably, and the outlet is improving

The mainstream production enterprises of formic acid have stable operation of their equipment and little inventory pressure. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, manufacturers hold a high price mentality. However, the export situation of formic acid is good, and the amount of goods on site has decreased. Manufacturers’ high price mentality is becoming stronger, and the focus of the formic acid market has shifted upward.

Weak consolidation of raw material methanol reduces support for formic acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

The demand for downstream compound fertilizers has increased

The compound fertilizer market is steadily rising. At present, the market is active in trading, with strong cost support and the release of spring demand. Some manufacturers have suspended orders and are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the short-term market will continue to consolidate and operate at a high level.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that with the combination of good demand and favorable export conditions, formic acid prices have risen, and the spring farming season is approaching. It is expected that downstream pesticides will boost the demand for formic acid, and the formic acid market is expected to remain stable and strong. Specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 17th to 21st, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 18666 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 18600 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.66% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 9.73%. The domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline during the week, with high prices and low transaction volume. Traders accelerated their delivery of goods, increasing the room for negotiation.

On the supply side, the temporary shutdown of the domestic Fujian plant is expected to take about half a month. The maintenance of the 410000 tons/year MDI plant in Jinhu, South Korea is scheduled to begin on February 9th and last for about a month. BASF’s 250000 tons/year MDI plant in South Korea is scheduled to undergo maintenance starting from February 9th, lasting approximately one month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated at a high level. Market supply remains high, but there is an increase in future maintenance plans, leading to an expected decrease in supply. Raw material aniline: The price is temporarily stable, with a mainstream price of 9200-9300 yuan/ton. Downstream demand is average, and the pressure on aniline enterprises to sell goods has increased, with more room for negotiation. It is expected that the aniline market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.

On the demand side, downstream demand follow-up is average, with a focus on essential needs. Export orders are still acceptable, but demand needs further improvement.

Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is running weakly, waiting for demand to rebound. It is expected that in the short term, the aggregated MDI market will digest and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and slightly declined from February 10 to February 17, 2025. On February 17th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% from 6740 yuan/ton on February 10th. This week, the mixed xylene market fluctuated within a certain range, with a slight overall decline and slight differences in performance across regions. The overall decline of the mixed xylene market in Shandong region is affected by insufficient downstream demand, resulting in limited market purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall operation of the Shandong market. Affected by low inventory, market prices in the East China region have slightly increased. Affected by tight supply in the South China region, Sinopec raised its ex factory prices. However, due to insufficient downstream receiving capacity, the market prices slightly declined, with an overall increase followed by a decrease.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, with little overall fluctuation. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is reported at $75.02 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec’s xylene quotation summary shows that the company is currently operating normally, with stable production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of February 17th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6850-6900 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6400 yuan/ton.

Demand side: acceptable support

On February 14th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. As of February 13th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 854-856 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 879-881 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is running weakly, with limited cost support. In recent times, the overall supply has been stable but slightly tight, with little change. The downstream receiving capacity of the demand side is weak, and the futures markets such as PX are weakening, which affects the downstream purchasing mentality. It is expected to operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5162 yuan/ton to 5125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market fluctuates weakly, but the overall supply is stable. After the holiday, corn ethanol enterprises have resumed work one after another, and downstream demand is stocking up.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices have remained stable with a slight increase. The deep processing industry has good profits; The policy of importing grains has shrunk; New season corn production reduction; The sale of imported corn wheels has stopped. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, Jilin’s major edible ethanol plant has shifted production, resulting in a decrease in operating load. However, overall, there is not much pressure on spot supply; The production enterprise can still accept orders and the delivery is stable. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption is generally supported; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate has been reported to have gradually resumed parking facilities, and the operating rate has rebounded. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

Market forecast, cost and demand game, downstream enterprises are watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement is mainly for essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of isopropanol is expected to decline in 2024. At the beginning of the year, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7890 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 6660 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 15.59% during the year. The highest price of isopropanol within the year is 9120 yuan/ton, and the lowest price within the year is 6650 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of market development in 2024, in the first half of the year, isopropanol experienced a fluctuating upward trend, while raw materials such as acetone and propylene rose one after another, with strong cost support and overall market fluctuations. In the second half of the year, isopropanol is in a downward trend, and the domestic isopropanol market is weak and declining. The acetone market has experienced a wide decline in raw materials, while the propylene market prices have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in insufficient cost support.

In the first quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 7890 yuan/ton on January 1st and 8210 yuan/ton on March 31st, with a cumulative increase of 4.06% from January to March. In January and February, the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene rose one after another, providing strong cost support, and the price of isopropanol increased. In March, the raw material acetone fluctuated slightly and the price of propylene fell, with average cost support. On site demand is weak, and the market is lukewarm. As of the end of March, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7900-8200 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8300-8500 yuan/ton based on market reference prices.

In the second quarter, the average price of isopropanol was 8190 yuan/ton on April 1st and 8660 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a cumulative increase of 5.74% from April to June. In April, the supply of acetone in the market was tight, causing a significant increase in acetone market prices, which boosted confidence in the isopropanol market and led to an increase in market prices. The raw material support is limited from May to June, and the demand for isopropanol in the market is average, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. As of the end of June, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8500-8650 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 8800-8900 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the third quarter was 8660 yuan/ton on July 1st and 6710 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a cumulative decline of 22.52% from July to September. The acetone market has experienced a wide decline, while the propylene market prices have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in insufficient cost support. The export situation is somewhat average, with weak downstream markets in China and a decline in isopropanol market prices. As of the end of September, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6750 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6800-6850 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

The average price of isopropanol in the fourth quarter was 6710 yuan/ton on October 1st and 6660 yuan/ton on December 31st, with a cumulative decline of 0.75% from October to December. The terminal market is operating at a low level, while the downstream market is performing averagely. Downstream inquiries are mainly based on demand, and there is a strong atmosphere of observation in the market. The isopropanol market is weak and mainly undergoing consolidation and operation. As of the end of December, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6750-6800 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in Northeast China are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the majority of isopropanol market prices are around 6700-6750 yuan/ton. In South China, the majority of isopropanol market prices are around 7050-7150 yuan/ton.

Production capacity and output

According to publicly available data, in terms of competition among enterprises in China’s isopropanol industry, analysis based on production capacity shows that isopropanol production enterprises in China are relatively concentrated, with less than 20 isopropanol production enterprises nationwide, with a total production capacity of about 1.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%.

In terms of production, there has been little change in domestic isopropanol production in recent years, and it is still in the stage of overcapacity. In the first half of 2024, the utilization rate of isopropanol production capacity will be around 36-54%. The capacity utilization rate in the second half of the year is around 46-64%.

Import and export aspects

According to customs statistics, China’s imports of isopropanol in 2024 amounted to 50035560 kilograms, with an import value of 76240148 US dollars. Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan are still the main import trade partners of isopropanol, accounting for 99% of the total import volume. In terms of the proportion of domestic isopropanol imports relative to domestic production in 2024, the import dependence is approximately 10.76%. Overall, the import volume has little impact on the supply and demand pattern of the Chinese isopropanol market.

According to customs statistics, exports in 2024 amounted to 190667364 kilograms, with an export value of 200156096 US dollars. Mainly exported to countries such as Thailand, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, etc. On October 22, 2024, the Revenue Department of the Indian Ministry of Finance issued Notice No. 22/2024 Custods (ADD), accepting the anti-dumping final ruling recommendation made by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry on isopropanol originating or imported from China on August 14, 2024, and deciding to impose anti-dumping duties on the products in question in China for a period of 5 years. The producer/exporter in question, Chang Xin Neng Co., Ltd., was charged $82/ton, while other producers/exporters in China were charged $217/ton.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol is based on two processes, acetone and propylene. At present, the profitability of the isopropanol acetone hydrogenation process is better than that of the propylene hydration process, so the price of isopropanol mainly varies with the acetone raw material.

In 2025, the overcapacity of isopropanol in China will still exist, and the direction of market regulation will be focused on the production rate of isopropanol. The fluctuation of the operating load rate of isopropanol in 2025 may be very frequent.

In 2025, isopropanol is currently mainly exported, with limited domestic demand. Chinese isopropanol exporters should closely monitor the implementation of India’s anti-dumping policies, adjust their export strategies, and seek new markets to reduce their dependence on the Indian market.

In summary, in 2025, the factors affecting the price of isopropanol will still be domestic demand, exports, cost and operating load rate adjustments. Under the premise of a significant increase in export volume, the market will perform even stronger.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after mid January, the bullish factors still exist, and the domestic adipic acid market continues to rise, with an increase of over 2%. On January 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8200 yuan/ton. On January 22nd, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.03%.

Lido supports domestic adipic acid market to continue rising

After mid January, the prices of adipic acid raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone continued to rise, driven by the stocking market in the terminal plastic industry. Major adipic acid manufacturers raised their factory prices, and the domestic adipic acid market continued to recover, with prices continuously increasing. The average market price rose to 8300-8600 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the Spring Festival, the rise in raw material prices will be weak, and the supply of adipic acid will be loose, which will continue to put pressure on the future market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there have been signs of recovery in domestic lithium carbonate recently. As of January 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 79780 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% from 78880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 76660 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Supply side production reduction

From a foreign perspective, the decline in lithium prices in the third quarter of 2024 has led to increased production cuts in overseas lithium mines, with some mining companies selling assets to recoup funds and some lithium mines reducing production.

Domestically, lithium salt factories in China have maintenance and shutdown plans, and production is expected to continue to decrease.

Strong performance on the demand side

The operating rate of downstream positive electrode material enterprises remains at a high level, with no significant reduction in production. The demand for pre holiday replenishment is strong, and spot transactions are gradually improving.

The production schedule of battery factories is relatively stable, with a significant increase compared to the same period last year.

Macro deposit positive news

Domestically speaking, the Ministry of Finance has issued the “Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade in”, and by 2025, the “Two New” policies in the automotive market will be strengthened and expanded. Automobile companies may continue the price war to support demand expectations.

From a foreign perspective, the unrest in mining areas in Nigeria and Mozambique has raised concerns in the market about their impact on the shipment of lithium concentrates from Africa.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, most logistics have been suspended, and spot transactions are bleak. It is expected that lithium carbonate will operate weakly and steadily in the near future.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of isooctanol was 7966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.37% compared to the price of 7633.33 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. During the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has increased, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week.

This week, the supply of isooctanol increased and the demand decreased

Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in the supply of isooctanol. Before the Spring Festival, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol and a greater driving force for its price increase.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the DOP price was 8613.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.53% compared to the DOP price of 8401.25 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Spring Festival stocking, increasing demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers. With the end of stocking, the expected demand for plasticizers has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in the future, the high equipment production of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new equipment, will alleviate the shortage of isooctanol supply and ensure sufficient supply of isooctanol; The Spring Festival stocking has ended, and the demand support for isooctanol has weakened. The strong supply and weak demand of isooctanol are expected to lead to a slight decline in the price of isooctanol in the future market.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 17th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7766.67 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of cyclohexane remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream market price remains at around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been consistently strong, with a month on month increase in operating rates and high capacity utilization. This week, the arrival of pure benzene at the port was low, supported by downstream demand. The transaction atmosphere in the East China market is active, and delivery is smooth. It is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is some support on the upstream cost side, and downstream demand procur

ement is running. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7116 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10 (reference price of n-butanol is 7216 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39%.

This week (1.10-1.15), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, was weak and declining. During the week, the high-end price of n-butanol was not smooth in shipping, and downstream users restocked at low prices. Many n-butanol factories began to offer discounts and lower the shipping price of n-butanol by around 100 yuan/ton. As of January 15th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7100-7200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50-100 yuan/ton within the week.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall production of n-butanol in the market is relatively stable, downstream users are cautious in stocking raw materials, high price trading volume is low, downstream inventory is low, and the buying atmosphere and negotiation are relatively low-end.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ January 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7450 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7350-7450 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

Currently, after the n-butanol factory voluntarily offered discounts for shipments, the low-end price transactions in the market have improved, and the overall downstream inquiry atmosphere has increased. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly stabilize and operate, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.