From the data monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in 2024, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region fluctuated with ups and downs, and the focus continued to move towards lower levels. On January 1, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong region was 8700 yuan/ton, and on December 26, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong region was 7183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.43% during the year.

 

From the data monitoring chart of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from January to December 2024, the n-butanol market experienced a trend of “one rise and two falls”. Among them, one rise occurred in early May June. The two declines occurred in February March and late June to early September. Next, we will analyze the factors behind the “one rise and two falls” market trend.

 

In February and March, after the Spring Festival, the n-butanol market was weak and fell. The overall operating load of the downstream industry of n-butanol is not high, and the recovery of demand in the downstream market is not as expected. The general shipment of n-butanol factories is not smooth, and the pressure on the supply side is accumulating. The slow transmission of supply and demand is dragging down the n-butanol market price from bottom to top, and the market decline is relatively significant. On March 25th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong was 7733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1083 yuan/ton or 12.29% from the price of 8816 yuan/ton on February 1st.

 

The market for n-butanol rose in May and June. In early May, the government issued a policy to impose anti-dumping duties on imported n-butanol, and n-butanol imported from Taiwan was also affected by the anti-dumping duties, resulting in an overall increase in import costs. Taiwan accounts for three layers of domestically imported n-butanol. Therefore, due to the policy’s impact, the import volume of n-butanol has decreased, and the supply in the current market is tight. Under the policy’s push, n-butanol factories have raised prices and offered quotes, causing market prices to skyrocket and reach a high point of 9200 yuan/ton this year.

 

From late June to mid September, negative factors suppressed the n-butanol market, causing a sharp decline. Entering late June, the downstream industry of n-butanol has gradually entered the traditional off-season. Downstream users have weakened their purchasing power for raw material n-butanol, and the demand side of n-butanol has shown weakness. The tight supply situation in the early stage has been alleviated. In addition, with the expectation of new equipment being put into operation in some regions, the supply expectation in the market has increased, and the market’s wait-and-see sentiment has become stronger, leading to an increased bearish attitude towards the market. Under the pressure of negative factors, the n-butanol market continues to decline. On September 17th, the reference price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region was 6666 yuan/ton. Compared with the n-butanol price of 9200 yuan/ton on June 10th, it decreased by 2500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.54%.

 

At the end of the year (November December), there was a slight recovery and operation in the n-butanol market. In November, some facilities in the n-butanol plant were temporarily shut down, leading to a decrease in supply expectations and supporting the upward trend of the market. In December, some downstream users began stocking up before the holiday, which boosted the demand for n-butanol in the market. However, due to the weak post holiday market performance of n-butanol during the 2023-2024 Spring Festival, downstream users are cautious in their overall stocking mentality and may worry about returning after the holiday, causing the market to repeat the same mistakes. Therefore, in December, the overall upward trend of the n-butanol market was limited.

 

It can be seen that the main influencing factors of the two significant declines in the n-butanol market are related to supply and demand performance. The rise in market prices comes from policy changes and the tight supply market, while the sudden decline in market prices is due to the lack of timely feedback from downstream demand, poor performance of terminal demand, and difficulty in supporting high market levels, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices. So let’s take a closer look at the data on supply and demand, and what impact it will have on the market in the new year.

 

What will be the market trend of n-butanol in 2025?

 

Introduction to n-butanol

 

N-butanol, also known as 1-butanol, is a colorless and transparent liquid organic compound with a pungent odor. It can form an azeotrope with water. N-butanol is an important fine chemical product. Its main production processes include fermentation, acetaldehyde condensation, and propylene carbonylation synthesis. Its application areas are mainly used for the production of butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, DBP (dibutyl phthalate), ethylene glycol butyl ether and other products.

 

Production process of n-butanol

 

The main production processes of n-butanol include fermentation, acetaldehyde condensation, and propylene carbonylation synthesis. Among them, fermentation and alcohol condensation methods have not been widely used due to their complex preparation and difficult availability of raw materials. Currently, the propylene carbonylation synthesis method has become the most important production method for n-butanol due to its easy availability of raw materials, relatively reduced carbonylation process pressure, increased ratio of n-butanol to isobutanol products, and the ability to co produce or specialize in the production of 2-ethylhexanol.

 

N-butanol industry chain

 

The upstream of the n-butanol industry chain includes raw materials such as propylene; The midstream is the production and supply of n-butanol, and the mainstream production process is carbonyl synthesis; Downstream is the application field, which is an important fine chemical product that can be used to produce products such as butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, DBP (dibutyl phthalate), ethylene glycol butyl ether, etc.

 

Downstream consumption field of n-butanol

 

In recent years, the downstream consumption structure of n-butanol in China has been relatively stable. The proportion of downstream consumption of n-butanol remains relatively stable in 2024, with over 80% of n-butanol used for the production of butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, and DBP (dibutyl phthalate). Among them, the consumption of butyl acrylate accounts for 55.3%, butyl acetate accounts for 17.3%, and DBP accounts for 13%.

 

In terms of production capacity

 

The distribution of concentrated release areas for the newly added production capacity of n-butanol from 2024 to 2025 is relatively concentrated

 

From 2018 to 2020, China’s n-butanol production capacity remained at 2.72 million tons. From 2021 to 2023, the net increase in production capacity was only 400000 tons. In 2024, China will release new n-butanol production capacity, and the growth rate of production capacity will accelerate. The newly added production capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, where spot supply has increased. The main production capacity involved is 3.665 million tons, with a growth rate of 17.28% compared to 2023.

 

In addition, there are several butanol and octanol units in Chinese Mainland that can switch production as needed. Therefore, whether the existing octanol units will be converted to n-butanol will also have a greater impact on the market production when more new octanol capacity is put into production.

 

From a regional distribution perspective, currently, the production capacity of n-butanol in China is relatively concentrated, with the East China region accounting for the largest proportion of production capacity, exceeding 60%. Among them, Shandong Province has the largest production capacity, accounting for about 33% of the total production capacity, followed by the Northwest and South China regions, accounting for 8.6% and 7.3% respectively.

 

From the perspective of production enterprises, the production capacity distribution of domestic n-butanol production enterprises has changed in 2024. Although Luxi Chemical’s 410000 ton n-butanol production capacity still ranks first, it is only 10000 tons behind the second ranked satellite chemical’s 400000 ton production capacity. Huachang Chemical’s expanded 320000 ton n-butanol production capacity ranks third, with a total production capacity of 1.13 million tons, accounting for 30.8%. Wanhua Chemical’s 300000 tons and Yangzi BASF’s 275000 tons ranked fourth and fifth respectively.

 

At present, there are about 21 domestic n-butanol production enterprises with a total production capacity of approximately 3.665 million tons.

 

In 2025, it is expected that new production capacity will continue to be released in China’s n-butanol and octanol market, involving enterprises such as Guangxi Huayi’s 320000 ton n-butanol and octanol plant, Jineng Technology’s 500000 ton n-butanol and octanol plant, Wanhua Chemical’s 250000 ton butanol plant, BASF’s 150000 ton butanol plant, and 350000 ton octanol plant, with a total capacity increase of 1.57 million tons.

 

Supply of n-butanol

 

Market supply continues to increase in 2025

 

The continued release of production capacity also indicates that by 2025, the overall supply of n-butanol in the domestic market will continue to increase, especially in the East China region, where the overall supply performance of n-butanol market will continue to be mainly loose. However, in recent years, due to factors such as carbon neutrality and dual control of energy consumption, there may be some uncertainty in the production time of some new projects, so further observation is needed.

 

Demand for n-butanol

 

In 2025, the demand side will increase synchronously, but the growth rate may not be as fast as the supply side

 

The downstream demand for n-butanol in 2024 is average, and the growth rate of downstream production capacity is much lower than that of n-butanol itself. The overall growth of downstream demand is limited. Entering 2025, this situation may continue to exist. Currently, the downstream production capacity of butyl acrylate is already in a surplus state. Although there will still be new production capacity added in 2025, the overall production capacity will be much lower than that of n-butanol. In addition, currently, the capacity utilization rate of downstream butyl ester and plasticizer production is around 5-6 layers, which is relatively low. Therefore, the game between downstream demand and raw material supply will be more obvious in 2025.

 

In terms of output

 

From the supply side, in recent years, the overall production of n-butanol in China has not fluctuated much. In 2024, the concentrated release of n-butanol production capacity will drive the overall production increase. However, from May to July, many regions in China shut down for maintenance, coupled with a large amount of new production capacity, the overall capacity utilization rate has narrowly increased to around 75%. According to calculations, the production of n-butanol in China will be approximately 2.74 million tons in 2024.

 

In terms of consumption volume

 

From the perspective of demand, the consumption of n-butanol in China has decreased and increased in recent years. In 2020, under the impact of public health safety incidents, downstream and terminal demand decreased, and downstream butyl acrylate export orders decreased. In 2021, driven by the export of downstream butyl acrylate, the consumption of n-butanol increased. In 2022, due to the global economic downturn, the consumption of n-butanol decreased again. In 2023 and 2024, the concentrated release of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity will drive an increase in the consumption of end plasticizers in the market. In 2024, the consumption of n-butanol is approximately 2.845 million tons.

 

In terms of imports

 

The import volume of n-butanol will continue to be low in 2025

 

China is a net importer of n-butanol, with imports consistently exceeding exports in recent years. Data shows that the import volume of n-butanol in China has been increasing year by year from 2018 to 2020, reaching 272200 tons in 2020; In 2021, due to its increased production, the import volume declined to 130900 tons; After 2022, its import volume showed an increasing trend, reaching 189000 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%.

 

On May 31, 2024, the State Council Tariff Commission issued a notice on suspending tariff reductions for some products (second batch) under the Cross Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. Starting from June 15th, the application of the agreed tax rates under the Cross Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement will be suspended for 134 imported products, including lubricating base oils and n-butanol, originating from Taiwan, and will be implemented in accordance with current relevant regulations.

 

This means that Chinese Mainland will levy tariffs and anti-dumping duties simultaneously when importing n-butanol from Taiwan. Taking the n-butanol source of Formosa Plastics Group as an example, its anti-dumping tax rate is 6%, and after the resumption of the 5.5% tariff, the comprehensive import tax rate will reach 11.83%. After this adjustment, the tax rate for n-butanol originating from Taiwan has significantly increased, and the import cost will rise.

 

Therefore, in 2024, the overall import volume of n-butanol in China will be reduced. According to customs data, from January to November 2024, the import volume of n-butanol was 122000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35%.

 

It is expected that by 2025, the import volume of n-butanol in China will continue to decrease without increasing. Due to the continuous expansion of n-butanol production capacity in the past two years, the domestic production capacity of n-butanol has reached the level that meets domestic demand. In addition, the reform of import tariffs has led to a reduction in profits from importing n-butanol. Therefore, in 2025, the import volume of n-butanol will still be at a low level in recent years.

 

In terms of exports

 

The export of n-butanol is expected to continue to increase in 2025

 

In recent years, the export volume of n-butanol in China has remained small, not exceeding 30000 tons, and has been declining since 2022, with only 3700 tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 83.33%. In 2024, the export volume of n-butanol in China has increased. According to customs data, from January to November 2024, the export volume of n-butanol was 16400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 325% compared to 2023. The significant increase in n-butanol export volume also reflects the changing market pattern behind the gradual growth of n-butanol production capacity in China.

 

It is expected that by 2025, the export volume of n-butanol in China will continue to increase. After the expansion of domestic n-butanol production capacity, the overall market supply will increase, and the supply will transition to the surplus stage. Therefore, it is expected that domestic exports may have a slight increase.

 

Summary:

 

In 2024, the performance of China’s real estate market is relatively weak, and the market demand for home appliances and automotive industries is also average. The overall demand for n-butanol and ester products is average.

 

It is expected that by 2025, there will still be some new production capacity in the n-butanol market, and the supply side of n-butanol is still being released. The market supply will continue to be mainly loose, but with policy regulation, the real estate market is expected to gradually warm up in 2025. Therefore, the demand for raw material n-butanol in the terminal market also has positive expectations. From the analysis of the market situation of n-butanol in 2024, the performance of the demand side plays an important role in influencing the n-butanol market. Due to the loose supply side and the overall increase in production capacity, the n-butanol market will still fluctuate in 2025, but the overall fluctuation space may narrow compared to 2024. The market will gradually adapt to the changes in the market pattern. In addition, more attention should be paid to changes in exports.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 26th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8900 yuan/ton. On December 1st, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8950 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%.

 

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in December, the domestic cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a “first rise and then fall” operation. In the first half of the month, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone rose, and the high price of pure benzene on the raw material side provided enhanced cost support for cyclohexanone. The low-priced supply of cyclohexanone in the market decreased, and the market situation approached upward. On December 10th, the price of cyclohexanone rose to the highest point of the month, with a reference price of 9162 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.37% in the first half of the month.

 

In the middle and late months, the cyclohexanone market fell from a high level, the raw material market slightly weakened, the cost support weakened, downstream users’ purchasing enthusiasm was poor, high priced goods transactions were light, and the transmission between supply and demand was slow, resulting in a continuous decline in market conditions. On December 26th, the market price of cyclohexanone was referenced at 8900 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.86% in the latter half of the year.

 

In terms of upstream pure benzene: On December 25th, the reference price of pure benzene was 7511.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to December 1st (7338 yuan/ton).

 

Market analysis in the future

 

At present, the supply of cyclohexanone market is abundant, and downstream demand is mainly based on on-demand procurement. The raw material end fluctuates between regions, and the cost support is relatively stable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly be weak and operated, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be paid more attention to.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

High volatility of ethylene glycol prices in December

 

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4671.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.

 

In the morning session, spot contract traders had weak trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, resulting in weak market trading. At present, the 01 contract is gradually entering the delivery month, with high basis shipments being the main focus.

 

On December 24th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4280 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

 

On December 23, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $544/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.

 

There has been an increase in import production

 

Taiwan’s South Asia No.1 360000 ton plant is scheduled to restart in early December, while Saudi Arabia’s JUPC 640000 ton plant is planned to restart by the end of December, with overseas production expected to gradually increase. The recent market rumors of an energy crisis in Iran that may affect import quantities are yet to be verified.

 

Domestic supply is in an upward phase

 

Domestic supply, especially with the return of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, coupled with the incremental release of production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. There is an increase in domestic supply. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply of coal to ethylene glycol and the production of raw material ethylene, domestic supply is in an upward phase.

 

The dependence on domestic ethylene glycol imports has decreased

 

The dependence on imported ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing with the release of domestic production capacity. Recently, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol has been relatively low. On the one hand, this is because the port inventory does not include the hidden inventory of domestic production areas and factories. On the other hand, it is also because downstream manufacturers had sufficient stock at low prices in November, and the port has been affected by weather recently, resulting in delayed unloading due to port closures. With the gradual unloading and arrival of ocean going large ships, the explicit inventory is also expected to rebound.

 

Downstream demand is expected to weaken

 

In December, the domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The downstream loading and weaving load of the terminal continues to weaken, and the autumn and winter orders of the terminal are lower than expected. There have been inquiries and orders for spring orders, but the overall order volume is showing a downward trend. Due to the impact of annual leave, terminal manufacturers will gradually enter a state of production reduction, shutdown, and holiday shutdown, and polyester will gradually enter a state of accumulated inventory. Recently, downstream filament and splicing factories have gradually begun to release maintenance plans, and there are signs of a decline in downstream operating rates. The overall demand for terminals is expected to weaken.

 

Future expectations

 

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, recent crude oil prices have been at a low level, with relatively insufficient cost support. Domestic coal prices are in a downward trend, and coal to ethylene glycol has cost advantages. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

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This week, the domestic phenol market has been weak and declining. The reference price for phenol in the East China region is between 7850-7900 yuan/ton. Terminal enterprises in the market are not very interested in entering the market, and the delivery of demand orders is low. Traders are under little pressure to ship, and there is a stable price sentiment. However, due to poor stock flow and profit sharing operations, trading follow-up is average. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7992 yuan/ton on December 16th and 7907 yuan/ton on December 22nd, with a slight decrease of 1.06% during the week.

 

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 8000 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price range of 8000-8050 yuan/ton. As of the 22nd, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

 

Region/ Quotation on the 22nd/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7880./ 0

Shandong region/ 7900./ 0

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7900./ 0

South China region/ 7950./ 0

Business Society expects that the short-term market fluctuations will not be significant, and pays attention to the supply and demand fundamentals. Phenol negotiations in the East China region are expected to be between 7850-7900 yuan/ton.

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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11700 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11700 yuan/ton, which is stable.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotations this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market delivery speed remains stable, and industry insiders are mostly observing and focusing on market transactions.

 

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

 

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate will be in a continuous decline throughout 2024 due to excess inventory. When lithium carbonate can rebound and whether it can rebound to the peak of 600000 yuan per ton has become a topic of concern in the industry. We will analyze the future of lithium carbonate in 2025 from the following four aspects.

 

（1） Market Review of 2024

 

Looking back at the price of lithium carbonate in 2024, except for a rapid upward trend after the Spring Festival and a fluctuating rebound during the “Golden September and Silver October” period, lithium carbonate remained in a state of “continuous decline” throughout the year. The post Spring Festival rally was due to the continuous fluctuation of market fermentation, Jiangxi environmental inspection, and Australian mine production reduction news under the low price center at that time. Coupled with the improvement of battery production expectations, the industry had certain expectations for downstream replenishment, driving prices from 100000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a high of around 120000 yuan/ton for the year. Subsequently, it continued to decline to the cost line of around 70000 yuan/ton. The volatile rebound in the fourth quarter was due to the improvement of monthly supply and demand margins, a turning point in inventory, better downstream output than market expectations, stronger support below, and a slight rebound in prices.

 

（2） Supply side: Global lithium resource production continues to increase by 2025

 

Domestically, three types of lithium ore projects have made progress by 2025. It is expected that China’s lithium resource supply will reach 330000 tons of LCE by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8%.

 

Lithium pyroxene end:

 

At present, the annual production of spodumene in China is about 46000 tons of LCE, and there are still multiple ongoing and climbing projects. It is expected that the supply of spodumene in China will reach 70000 tons of LCE by 2025.

 

Lithium mica end:

 

Although domestic lithium mica accounts for the largest proportion, due to high environmental pressure, profit disadvantage, and slow capacity expansion, the main production area of Yichun, a mining area for lithium mica, maintained a long period of closure and rectification in the first half of 2024. In September, domestic lithium industry giant Ningde Times also announced the shutdown of its Xiawo mine and its smelting plant, resulting in a significant decline in the smelting capacity of mica in Jiangxi. At present, the annual production of lithium mica in China is about 138000 tons of LCE, and it is expected that the supply will decrease to 105000 tons of LCE by 2025.

 

Salt Lake End:

 

At present, the annual production of salt lakes in China is about 129000 tons of LCE, and it is expected that the supply will rise to 162000 tons of LCE by 2025. In 2025, the increase in domestic smelting capacity will mainly be concentrated in the salt lake end.

 

From a global perspective, some high cost mines will reduce production, halt production or delay construction in 2024, but the global increase is still considerable. The main supply will still come from Australia and South America, with the main increase concentrated in Zimbabwe in Africa and Argentina in South America.

 

By 2025, it is expected that South American salt lakes will contribute approximately 140000 tons of LCE, Australia will contribute approximately 22000 tons of LCE, Africa will contribute approximately 70000 tons of LCE, and domestic projects will contribute approximately 23000 tons of LCE. It is expected that the global lithium resource supply will reach 1.59 million tons of LCE by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

 

（3） Demand side: Global demand continues to grow by 2025

 

In terms of new energy vehicles: the domestic situation is improving, but the overseas market is slowing down

 

Domestically speaking, the growth trend of new energy vehicles is strong, maintaining a high growth rate. In 2024, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 12 million units. Due to the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeding 50%, it is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 15 million units by 2025, with a slower growth rate. It is expected that the new energy vehicle power battery will drive a domestic demand for 500000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.

 

Overseas perspective: The economic vitality of Europe in 2024 is still insufficient, and consumer confidence is low. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in various countries has forced mainstream countries to reduce or even cancel new energy subsidy policies, hindering the growth of energy companies outside the UK. In 2024, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe decreased by 5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of about 19%. The UK maintains a growth rate of 16.7% and a penetration rate of over 30%. 2025 is the European carbon emission assessment milestone, with policy driven electrification transformation, and European new energy vehicles may usher in a recovery. In 2024, due to the rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act, some car models in the United States will no longer enjoy subsidies of $7500 or $3500, resulting in a growth rate of only about 10% for new energy vehicles and a penetration rate of about 9%. US new energy companies are also facing increased policy uncertainty due to Trump’s presidency, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in growth rate by 2025. Globally, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 19.2 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, roughly corresponding to a growth rate of 3% overseas. It is expected that power batteries will drive a global demand for 750000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025.

 

In terms of energy storage batteries: maintaining high global growth

 

Domestically, the installation of new energy storage devices, mainly lithium-ion batteries, has maintained high growth. Especially in the third and fourth quarters, with the rush to install at the end of the year, manufacturers’ shipments have significantly increased, corresponding to a significant increase in the purchase volume of battery cells. The operating rate of top battery cell companies is as high as 90%. It is expected that the shipment volume of lithium energy storage batteries in China will be about 330GWh in 2024. The shipment volume in 2025 is expected to be around 495GWh, with an estimated growth rate of 50%.

 

Looking overseas

 

The US energy storage market is constrained by the complex grid connection process and high costs of grid renovation, which have resulted in delayed grid connection and hindered the growth rate of energy storage batteries. However, it still maintains a high growth rate. In 2023, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) of the United States will reform the relevant grid connection process, simplifying the process of renewable energy grid connection. The energy storage market in the United States is expected to reach 12.4GW in 2024 and 14.3GW in 2025.

 

From the perspective of Europe, the demand for household storage has declined, and the incremental portion may gradually shift from household storage to large-scale storage. In 2024, it is expected that the newly installed capacity will be 22.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 62%. The incremental capacity of household storage, industrial and commercial storage, and grid side storage will be 8.7 GWh, 2.7 GWh, and 11 GWh, respectively, accounting for 39%, 12%, and 49% of the total capacity.

 

Overall, it is expected that the global shipment of energy storage lithium batteries will reach 345GWh for the whole year of 2024, and maintain a growth rate of 50% in 2025, reaching 520GWh.

 

Inventory and supply-demand balance: Excess situation will ease in 2025

 

Inventory: From the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 to the whole year of 2024, domestic lithium carbonate has maintained high inventory. However, from the third quarter of 2024 onwards, due to certain production cuts in the mining sector and the peak demand season, lithium carbonate has experienced continuous destocking.

 

Supply side: Due to some domestic enterprises having announced production cuts, shutdowns, reduced capital expenditures, or delayed project construction, the increase in raw materials provided by the domestic resource side in 2025 is limited. It is expected that the increase in domestic smelting production will mainly come from the supply of Australian and African mines. At the same time, considering the large increase in South American salt lakes (nearly 100000 tons), it is expected that the amount of lithium salt entering the country from Chile and Argentina will increase significantly. The increase in domestic supply side is still significant, and it is expected that the increase in domestic supply side will reach 21%.

 

Demand side: Sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, but the growth rate has slowed down. Energy storage will continue to maintain high growth, and the comprehensive growth rate of lithium carbonate demand side will remain around 24%.

 

Overall, there will still be an excess of lithium carbonate in China next year, but the excess amount will narrow.

 

Based on the above data, we make the following predictions about the future price trend of lithium carbonate:

 

In the short term, periodic changes in supply and demand will cause fluctuations in the short-term market, and lithium carbonate will experience a bottoming out near the cost line in the short term.

 

In the long run, it is difficult to change the surplus pattern of lithium carbonate by 2025, but there will be large-scale production cuts on the supply side, narrowing the excess. The growth rate of demand will increase, exceeding the year-on-year growth rate of supply. It is expected that the fluctuation center will gradually rise, but it is difficult to return to the historical high of 600000 yuan/ton, and will fluctuate in the range of 70000 to 120000 yuan/ton.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December, there has been a long short game, and the palm oil spot market has experienced a sharp decline after rising, with prices oscillating and falling, with an overall decline of over 2%. On December 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average market price of palm oil was 10078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% in price.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

Long short game: domestic palm oil market plummets from high to low

 

Since December, the palm oil market has experienced a surge, with prices approaching 10500 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 2%. Due to ongoing negative factors, palm oil experienced a plunge after rising, and the market continued to decline, with prices dropping to around 10000 yuan/ton, a drop of over 3%. The current rise in palm oil prices is mainly driven by external market conditions. Due to poor terminal demand, there is insufficient momentum for sustained upward movement. After the rise, there is a pullback, and the price returns to a low level.

 

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that after mid December, Malaysian palm oil in the external market is still in a production reduction cycle, and there is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1021 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% and a year-on-year increase of 19.43%. On December 8th, the chemical index was 847 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak, with a downward trend of 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 950-1040 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 1000-1080 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

 

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 49th week of 2024 (12.2-12.6), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-2.30%), calcium carbide (-1.72%), and caustic soda (-1.27%).

 

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and the demand for non aluminum industries has been weak. Downstream companies are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

 

Benzalkonium chloride

The price of ethylene glycol slightly increased in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4613.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.

 

In the morning session, spot contract traders had good trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, and the market trading was relatively weak. During the trading session, the main focus was on high priced shipments from base traders.

 

On December 6th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4240-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

 

On December 5, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $543/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $550/ton.

 

Strong domestic supply and weak demand for ethylene glycol remain unchanged

 

In December, the domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol has increased month on month, and the operating rate has remained relatively high. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

 

Approaching the Spring Festival (January), it is highly likely that the operating rate of downstream polyester plants will decrease, and terminal weaving orders will fall. Terminal manufacturers will gradually enter a state of production reduction, shutdown, and holiday shutdown by the end of December, and polyester will gradually enter a state of accumulated inventory. Recently, downstream filament and splicing factories have gradually begun to release maintenance plans, and there are signs of a decline in downstream operating rates.

 

Domestic supply, especially with the return of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, coupled with the incremental release of production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. There is an increase in domestic supply. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply of coal to ethylene glycol and the production of raw material ethylene, domestic supply is in an upward phase.

 

The dependence on domestic ethylene glycol imports has decreased

 

The dependence on imported ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing with the release of domestic production capacity. Recently, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol has been relatively low. On the one hand, this is because the port inventory does not include the hidden inventory of domestic production areas and factories. On the other hand, it is also because downstream manufacturers had sufficient stock at low prices in November, and the port has been affected by weather recently, resulting in delayed unloading due to port closures. With the gradual unloading and arrival of ocean going large ships, the explicit inventory is also expected to rebound.

 

Future expectations

 

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall domestic adipic acid market has declined this week, with a drop of over 1%. On November 25th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

 

Sodium Molybdate

Negative leads to weak decline in adipic acid market

 

This week, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the lack of upward momentum in the cyclohexanone market caused by the upstream raw material pure benzene, and the sluggish demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition, the supply pressure of adipic acid has doubled, and negative factors have suppressed it. The weak downward trend of adipic acid market is the main reason, and the mainstream market price is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, with a weak downward trend.

 

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in December, the bearish sentiment remains, and the adipic acid market will continue to weaken.

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