This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 25th, the price of isooctanol was 7516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67% compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on March 14th. There is a significant increase in production capacity of isooctanol, with high equipment start-up rates in isooctanol enterprises and sufficient supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high levels, and demand for isooctanol is increasing. The downward pressure on isooctanol is weakening, and upward support still exists.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 25th, the DOP price was 8126.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.15% compared to the DOP price of 8113.75 yuan/ton on March 14th. The production of DOP plasticizers has increased, and the output of plasticizers has recovered. The demand for isooctanol is supporting, and the upward support for isooctanol still exists.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that downstream demand is stable, and the supply of isooctanol is increasing, causing the price of isooctanol to rise first and then fall. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will be high, the production of plasticizers will increase, the demand for isooctanol will rise, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises will increase, and the supply of isooctanol will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and the downward trend has slowed down. The mainstream quotation for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 16500-16600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for domestic goods (PM200) is 17000-17200 yuan/ton. The Fujian plant is operating at reduced load, and in addition, there are plant maintenance and supply reduction in Japan. The downstream demand is mainly due to urgent needs, and the purchase of gas needs to be restored. It is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline this week. On Monday (March 10th), the price of pure benzene was 7168 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 14th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.37% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene has continued to decline this week. There is still pressure on local refining and shipping in Shandong region, and downstream confidence is insufficient. Purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and some factories continue to lower prices. In terms of ports, although port inventory has decreased, due to the continuous impact of overseas market supply on the domestic pure benzene market in the distant months, spot holders have actively sold and prices have followed suit.

This week, Sinopec’s price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil futures: On March 13th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.55 per barrel, a decrease of $1.13 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.07 or 1.5%.

On March 13th, FOB Korea rose by 9 to 821 US dollars per ton, CFR China rose by 10 to 839 US dollars per ton, FOB Rotterdam remained stable at 748 US dollars per ton, and FOB USG fell by 9 to 255 US cents per gallon.

Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and we will wait and see on the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and the price is at a low level. As of this Friday, TDI domestic goods are priced around 11800-12200 yuan/ton, while Shanghai goods are priced between 12200-12400 yuan/ton. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, with obvious price pressure from intermediaries. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and businesses lack confidence, resulting in a concentration of low-priced transactions. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will operate at a low price in the short term.

The terminal demand is weak, and the epoxy chloropropane market is experiencing a narrow decline. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9275 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.07% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the market prices of propylene and glycerol have slightly increased, and cost pressure still exists, but the boost to the price of epichlorohydrin is limited. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The supply volume is steadily increasing, and market transactions are normal. Some devices are in a parked state.

Downstream demand side: Downstream terminal demand is weak. The main downstream epoxy resin shipments are not smooth, with limited actual transactions and low intention to buy epoxy chloropropane. Small orders are waiting to be followed up, and new market transactions are flat, putting pressure on the epoxy chloropropane market.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side still has support, and some units are in a state of shutdown. However, short-term low demand may still dominate the market. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined this week. As of February 28th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from the price of 6580 yuan/ton on February 24th.

On the supply side: Currently, the market supply is normal, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have seen an increase in production, with procurement mainly based on demand. As of February 28th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6300 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has slightly increased, and as of February 28th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, unsaturated resin companies have been operating slowly, and there is a strong demand for purchasing unsaturated resins downstream, which has limited support for unsaturated resins. Currently, the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resins is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that recently, the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride has completed its replenishment, and the follow-up of new orders has slowed down. Unsaturated resins mainly maintain the essential demand for maleic anhydride, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride maintain stable prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been running weakly this month, with an average market price of 1563.2 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1543.2 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has dropped by 1.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 37.28%. On February 26th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.50% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.21% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1400-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1700 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in February. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1494 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28% and 33.33% compared to the same period last year.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with the overall weak performance of the upstream raw material soda ash in February. Downstream areas such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8261 yuan/ton on February 20th and 8246 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.18% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10183 yuan/ton on February 20th and 10133 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.49% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8412 yuan/ton on February 20th and 8387 yuan/ton on February 27th, with a price drop of 0.30% during this period.

Recently, the international oil price trend on the cost side has fallen, and the cost side is weak, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. The pressure on the supply side is still ongoing, with stable deployment of new production capacity in the early stages, and plans to restart some maintenance facilities at the end of February. The peak season for plastic film is about to begin, but the demand for greenhouse film has entered the off-season. The market order follow-up is insufficient, and traders mainly offer discounts for shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations.

The unexpected increase in finished oil inventories in the United States indicates that the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged; The combination of the Ukraine Russia peace agreement has put pressure on oil prices, and there is a downward trend in cost side oil prices; Supply side inventory pressure remains; The demand for plastic film is gradually entering the peak season, which may provide some support. Against the backdrop of increasing supply and demand, it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on polyethylene.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

The latest price on February 25th is 15180 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis points: On February 25th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price slightly increased. Recently, Longqi has taken the lead in announcing price increases, and other manufacturers have followed suit. Overall, the domestic price of titanium dioxide has risen by around 300 yuan/ton, and the foreign trade sales price has risen by around 50 US dollars/ton. At present, the market has received good orders and confidence has been boosted, with some tight supply models experiencing price increases.

Prediction: It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will remain strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid experienced an upward trend at the end of February. As of February 24th, the average price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4% from 3125 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The supply side device is running stably, and the outlet is improving

The mainstream production enterprises of formic acid have stable operation of their equipment and little inventory pressure. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, manufacturers hold a high price mentality. However, the export situation of formic acid is good, and the amount of goods on site has decreased. Manufacturers’ high price mentality is becoming stronger, and the focus of the formic acid market has shifted upward.

Weak consolidation of raw material methanol reduces support for formic acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first fell from 2599 yuan/ton and then rose to 2598 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.03% during the period, a month on month decline of 2.35%, and a year-on-year decline of 0.67%. The domestic methanol market is weak and volatile. The utilization rate of domestic methanol production capacity is still at a high level, and the traditional downstream is gradually recovering. Although downstream external procurement has boosted the mainland market at the beginning of the week, the downstream maintains rational procurement as the main focus, and the overall mainland market is weak and volatile.

The demand for downstream compound fertilizers has increased

The compound fertilizer market is steadily rising. At present, the market is active in trading, with strong cost support and the release of spring demand. Some manufacturers have suspended orders and are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the short-term market will continue to consolidate and operate at a high level.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that with the combination of good demand and favorable export conditions, formic acid prices have risen, and the spring farming season is approaching. It is expected that downstream pesticides will boost the demand for formic acid, and the formic acid market is expected to remain stable and strong. Specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.