According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 15, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 8116 yuan/ton. Compared with April 8 (reference price for n-propanol was 7983 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.67%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (4.8-4.15), the overall domestic n-propanol market has experienced an upward trend, and the focus of negotiations in the n-propanol market is approaching a high level. From the end of the Silver Fourth month, the overall downstream demand for n-propanol has improved, with a mild trading atmosphere in the n-propanol field and an overall increase in downstream production. This has boosted the demand for raw materials and supported the upward trend of the n-propanol market on the demand side. As of April 15th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7600-8400 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mild, the mentality of the operators is good, and the new transactions of n-propanol are stable. According to the n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the overall stability of the domestic n-propanol market will continue to improve, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of new pentanediol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on April 8th.

This week, the new pentanediol factory offered discounts on sales. The inventory of new pentanediol manufacturers was high, and downstream demand for new pentanediol weakened. The new pentanediol market transactions were poor, and there is still downward pressure on new pentanediol.

The price of raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on April 8th. With the continuous rise of crude oil prices, the price of propylene, the raw material of isobutyraldehyde, has fluctuated and risen. Downstream inventories of new pentanediol are high, and the demand for isobutyraldehyde is weak due to the rising cost. The downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the domestic formaldehyde quotation was 1197.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the formaldehyde price of 1200 yuan/ton on April 8th. The upstream raw material methanol is short-term bearish, formaldehyde inventory is accumulating, and the pressure of formaldehyde decline is increasing, causing formaldehyde prices to fluctuate and fall.

Market Overview and Forecast

An analyst at Shengyishe believes that in terms of cost, formaldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen, while isobutyraldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen. The cost of new pentanediol has decreased, and isobutyraldehyde prices have rebounded and stabilized. In terms of raw materials, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; In terms of demand, there are many low-priced offers for new pentanediol, but actual transactions are relatively poor. On the supply side, the high inventory of new pentanediol manufacturers puts significant pressure on the decline of new pentanediol. In the future, the cost support for new pentanediol is increasing, and demand is weak. New pentanediol manufacturers have high inventories, and the supply of new pentanediol is sufficient. The expected price of new pentanediol in the future is expected to fluctuate and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 814 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price was 796 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.21%, a decrease of 11.56% compared to the same period last year. On April 11th, the chlor alkali index was 979 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.99% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 37.50% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 780-880 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda was weak, and downstream aluminum oxide spot trading activity was average. The demand for caustic soda was average, and there was a strong wait-and-see purchasing sentiment. The supply and demand game between upstream and downstream, and the price of caustic soda fluctuates.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are calcium carbide (0.56%); The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-3.05%), baking soda (-1.70%), and caustic soda (-0.19%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.63%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. As the purchasing prices of Shandong’s main downstream alumina enterprises decline, the purchasing willingness of downstream alumina is average. There is a high possibility that the spot price of caustic soda will stabilize. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda may slightly consolidate the operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall price center of nylon filament in the domestic market increased in the first quarter of 2024. The average market price of nylon filament POY (premium product; 86D/24F) in Jiangsu region this quarter was 16928 yuan/ton, an increase of 628 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.85%; The average market price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) is 19163 yuan/ton, an increase of 593 yuan/ton from the average price in the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 3.19%; The average market price of FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is 20142 yuan/ton, an increase of 568 yuan/ton compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with a quarterly increase of 2.90%.

Market trends

In January 2024, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon filament, was raised multiple times, causing a significant increase in the PA6 chip high-speed spinning chip market. In addition, the downstream market entered the stage of raw material replenishment, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. Supported by multiple favorable factors, the price of nylon filament in the market was cautious and upward. As the Spring Festival approaches, the cost side trend is strong, and downstream pre holiday stocking has basically ended. Most downstream manufacturers stopped for vacation at the end of January, resulting in a slowdown in demand. Nylon filament manufacturers gradually reduced their load or stopped for vacation at the end of February, and the market gradually entered a vacation mode. Nylon filament market prices have remained stable. After the new year, the industry has good confidence in the future market, with strong price support sentiment. The upstream raw material prices have significantly increased, and the cost side support is strong, driving the high price of nylon filament market to rise. However, downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices. Manufacturers lack the ability to accept high priced raw materials and mainly consume inventory. The demand side is constrained by the raw material market from bottom to top, and there is insufficient release of new orders on site. The market is looking for a warming atmosphere. In March, the supply of raw material caprolactam was sufficient, and the market continued to operate weakly, resulting in a significant drop in prices; The traditional peak season for textiles has seen lower than expected demand and continued to be weak, with on-demand procurement still being the main focus. Nylon manufacturers have seen an increase in production load and sufficient supply of goods, resulting in a prominent contradiction of oversupply. Affected by bullish and bearish factors, the nylon silk market continues to operate weakly, with insufficient confidence on the market and a broad decline in prices.

Supply and demand analysis

Supply side: The overall supply of nylon filament in the first quarter of 2024 decreased compared to the previous quarter. During the season, which coincides with the Spring Festival, most nylon filament manufacturers stopped for vacation in early February, and some manufacturers maintained low load operation of their equipment, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply; After the holiday, manufacturers have resumed work one after another, and on-site supply has returned to normal levels in early March. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is operating at around 85%.

Demand side: In the early stage of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is good, and the business owners still have a bullish attitude towards the future market. Downstream manufacturers have a good pre holiday stocking mood, and some nylon filament manufacturers have orders as high as April; Returning after the holiday, terminal demand is weak, downstream markets resume work relatively late, coupled with high raw material prices pushing up, manufacturers have weak purchasing intentions, and they often replenish goods as needed, resulting in weak performance on the demand side. At present, the downstream market mainly consumes raw material inventory, and there is currently no significant improvement in the demand side.

market forecast

Raw material cost: In terms of caprolactam, the market supply is expected to increase, and downstream slicing markets may still purchase as needed. It is expected that the price center of caprolactam in the next quarter will shift downwards; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side prices are still in a downward trend, and downstream manufacturers are not willing to purchase. Business owners still hold a bearish attitude towards the future market, and it is expected that the PA6 slicing market will decline in the next quarter.

Supply side: Most manufacturers in the nylon filament market have stable equipment operation, and on-site production is at a high level. The overall supply performance of the market is abundant. In addition, there are plans to increase production capacity in Hubei in the next quarter, and some manufacturers in Fujian are expected to release all new production capacity in the next quarter. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an increase in market supply in the next quarter.

On the demand side: Currently, the downstream market demand is not as good as the same period last year, and the foreign trade market has not shown a significant improvement. Domestic demand is limited, and as the market demand off-season approaches, many businesses hold a pessimistic attitude. It is expected that the driving force from the demand side will still be weak in the next quarter.

Overall, the cost raw material caprolactam market and the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak, with a weak trend on the cost side. There may be an increase in on-site supply, and downstream markets have a certain degree of risk aversion. They purchase more on demand, and the market lacks positive news support. Therefore, it is expected that the price center of the nylon filament market will decline in the next quarter.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (4.1-4.8), with an average market price of 224960 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 228860 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 1.73%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Recently, the macro market trend has been relatively strong, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal market, with Shanghai Xilun Tin following the upward trend. This cycle coincided with the domestic Qingming Festival holiday, and the futures market only opened for four working days. The pre holiday trend was stable, moderate, and strong. During the Qingming Festival, London tin rose sharply, driving the Shanghai tin market to make up for losses after the holiday. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is currently little change in the operating rate of domestic refineries, and the overall domestic supply is relatively stable. In terms of imports, the recent import volume has been low, and the supply of tin ingots has not changed much. In terms of demand, tin prices have recently strengthened, and downstream industries have seen a decline in their willingness to receive goods. Even when tin prices were high, they still maintained a high demand for restocking. As prices continue to rise, downstream inquiries have shown lower intentions, and market trading has been relatively quiet. Overall, the photovoltaic industry has performed well recently, and the electronics industry is also expected to enter a seasonal peak season. The market is optimistic about demand expectations, but downstream purchases remain on demand due to the high tin prices. In the future, with the support of downstream and macro boost, it will maintain a stable, medium to strong trend in the short term. However, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry will decrease, and it is expected that the overall upward space in the future will be limited.

Industry data:

On April 7th, the base metal index was 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 7th, the non-ferrous index was 1133 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 26.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 86.66% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 14th week of 2024 (4.1-4.5), there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are praseodymium neodymium alloy (5.71%), metallic praseodymium (5.70%), and praseodymium oxide (5.59%). There are four products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being silicon metal (-0.93%), lead (-0.64%), and cobalt (-0.22%). The average increase and decrease this week was 1.71%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The current price remains unchanged compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. As of April 7th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1200 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated and stabilized, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream panel factories have continued to have poor demand, weak support for formaldehyde procurement, and production enterprises have no plans to reduce burden or stop production. The on-site supply has continued to rise, and the formaldehyde market has slightly declined.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement. Coal prices currently have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, traditional downstream and MTO consumption levels are expected to weaken, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

The recent fluctuations in raw material methanol prices are mainly due to the accumulation of formaldehyde inventory and a cold trading atmosphere on the exchange. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the recent decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 28th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8633 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average price of white oil in the market was 8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.7% from the beginning of last month.

In terms of cost

The range of fluctuations in the crude oil market in March was mainly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which remained the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signal of delaying interest rate cuts has dampened market confidence. There is support in terms of cost.

In terms of supply and demand

At the beginning of the month, the market lacked positive momentum and showed an overall pattern of supply slightly exceeding demand. Manufacturers are operating slowly, digesting early inventory, and the market transaction performance is weak. Downstream stocking inventory has not been digested yet, and downstream market demand is recovering slowly. The market pattern of oversupply has not changed.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the decline in the domestic white oil market has been temporarily halted. Supported by the cost side, downstream demand gradually starts, and market trading rebounds. It is expected that the short-term consolidation of white oil prices will be the main trend.

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in March. On March 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7210 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, the benchmark price was 7350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene.

High international crude oil and external market prices provide support for toluene

In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of toluene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. Affected by the high crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in March, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of March 28, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price in April was between 925-927 US dollars per ton.

Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production

In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for toluene prices. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.

TDI demand is sluggish, and the low starting point has weak support for toluene

In March, TDI market demand was weak, and prices sharply declined. At the beginning of the month, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with a small amount of essential purchases in the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was light; The news of discounted supply from large factories in the north in mid to late March was released, and the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The TDI weekly guidance price of Shanghai’s large factories was significantly reduced. In addition, the downstream was affected by the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down, and the market transaction center continued to shift downwards.

The decrease in port inventory has reduced the resistance to the upward movement of Jia Ben

Domestic production of toluene has slightly increased, and single port inventory has decreased, reducing overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene. As of March 28th, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 75%; As of March 28th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 67000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 13000 tons, a decrease of around 40000 tons from the end of February.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil market is currently operating at a high level, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port decreased and the plan for equipment maintenance led to an expected continued decline in the supply of toluene. It is expected that the toluene market will continue to rise in the future.

Price trend

In March, the domestic ABS market continued to maintain a strong trend, with spot prices of various brands gradually increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12162.50 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+3.18% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: This month, the domestic ABS industry has taken on the pattern of load reduction and adjustment in the early stage, and the operating rate has decreased within the month. During the inspection of the PetroChina Jieyang plant, the industry plant load decreased from around 63% at the beginning of the month to around 56% at the end of the month. The low load of ABS aggregation enterprises affects the tight supply pattern in the market. The monthly output and inventory of production enterprises have both decreased, and overall, the supply side’s support for spot goods is still acceptable.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in March increased, with an increase in the acrylonitrile market. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls at the end of the month, with a moderate impact on the cost of acrylonitrile; The supply of acrylonitrile units will be tightened within the month, but downstream products will only maintain the necessary support for acrylonitrile; Overall, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile market at the end of the month are weak, and the market may become stagnant and consolidation in the near future.

The domestic butadiene market saw a stepwise increase in March. The continued rise in external prices has boosted market sentiment, but in the middle and late stages, most downstream industries experienced inverted profits, with the main downstream industries experiencing a gradual decline in operating load and a slightly weaker demand side dragging down. At the end of the month, the overall performance of the butadiene market transaction center slightly weakened, and it is expected that the market will enter a consolidation period in early April.

The market price of styrene remained strong after an increase in March. The price of raw material pure benzene rose in the first half of the month due to the boost of crude oil, and the positive news gradually faded in the second half. The cost support for styrene shifted from strong to flat. The supply pattern of goods remained tight throughout the month, and on-site inventory continued to decline. In the second half of the month, downstream enterprises are expected to follow up and weaken, and the styrene market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: The resumption of work at the main ABS terminals in March is good, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to stock up has increased in mid month. Among them, the increase in production scheduling in the home appliance industry is particularly significant, and the overall load of factories on the demand side has increased, leading to an increase in demand purchases. But as ABS prices rise, buyers’ resistance to high-end sources of goods gradually becomes apparent. At the end of the month, traders actively sold their goods, resulting in loose offers and average market support from the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

In March, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was still good, but the cost side of ABS remained relatively strong. The operation of petrochemical plants is gradually decreasing, and the supply pressure is not obvious. Due to the continuous increase in ABS prices during the month, some buyers have entered the market, and the demand side’s support for spot goods has turned from strong to flat. At the end of the month, traders engaged in price reduction and order taking operations. Currently, the long and short positions of ABS complement each other, and the ABS market may remain strong in early April due to the impact of low supply.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the sulfur price trend in East China has slightly increased this week. On March 24th, the sulfur price was 1046.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the sulfur price of 1040.00 yuan/ton on March 18th, and a month on month increase of 1.95%.

This week, the sulfur market has seen an upward trend. Some refineries in Shandong region have undergone maintenance and reduced loads, resulting in low inventory levels among manufacturers and a tight supply of goods in the market. Downstream suppliers have shown good enthusiasm for entering the market and purchasing, with smooth enterprise shipments and slight price increases. As of the 22nd, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 980-1100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 980-1110 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market has risen strongly, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 291.25 yuan/ton on March 24th, an increase of 9.39% compared to the price of 266.25 yuan/ton on March 18th. The production of on-site enterprises is stable, and downstream demand is relatively stable. In some areas, downstream procurement is active, and the shipment of enterprises is smooth. The market transaction center has increased. At the same time, on-site equipment has maintenance plans, and the expected supply in the future is reduced, which is to some extent favorable for the atmosphere of the sulfuric acid market. The price of sulfuric acid has risen.

The downstream market for ammonium phosphate remained stable, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 3130.00 yuan/ton on March 24th, unchanged from the price of 3130.00 yuan/ton on March 18th. Downstream consumption of monoammonium phosphate is relatively weak, and the procurement of raw materials is average. The follow-up of new market orders is limited, and the manufacturer’s quotation runs smoothly with the support of pending orders.

Future Market Forecast

The sulfur analyst from Business Society believes that the current sulfur market supply continues to improve, with downstream product prices rising and procurement enthusiasm being good, which has a positive impact on the market trading atmosphere. It is expected that the sulfur market will rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.