According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 8, 2022, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20420 yuan / ton, which was 740 yuan / ton lower than the price on July 3, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 19680 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week, the domestic organosilicon DMC market as a whole ushered in rising operation. At the beginning of the week (July 4), the quotation of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was 19300 yuan / ton, which was increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. Most other factories held steady prices, and the rise in prices of big factories led to the warming of the atmosphere in the organosilicon DMC venue. 6. On July 7, Shandong big factory continued to raise the price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton in the two days. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of this factory was 20200 yuan / ton, and the organosilicon DMC market returned to the era of 20000. Other factories also followed the big factory to raise the price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton in the week. As of July 8, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price was around 20200-21000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 3.7% in the week. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is acceptable, and the downstream demand mainly continues the rigid demand, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the rising market.

In terms of upstream silicon metal, at the beginning of July, the domestic silicon metal market was weak as a whole and operated slightly downward. According to the monitoring data of business agency,] on July 7, the reference price of silicon metal was 17690 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared with July 1 (17910 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

After entering July, the domestic organosilicon DMC ushered in a rising market, which was mostly supported by the supply side, the confidence of the factory to raise prices and the reduction of pressure on the supply side. The support of the downstream demand side was generally general, and the downstream stock was still cautious. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business society believed that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was mostly consolidated and operated, and the specific trend still needed to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline rose broadly in the first ten days of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized to the end of the month. On June 1, the price in Shandong was 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11800 yuan / ton; On June 28, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month increased by 5.29% over the beginning of the month and 14.54% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material, pure benzene: due to the continuous rise of crude oil in the early stage, the price of pure benzene in the outer disk rose, the import of pure benzene decreased, the ports continued to destock, and the minimum inventory in East China ports fell to 48000 tons. The high pressure in the lower reaches, coupled with demand support, stimulated the continuous rise of pure benzene to exceed 10000 yuan. In the later stage, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the superposition of downstream losses expanded, some units were economically reduced and shut down, the demand fell, and the vibration of pure benzene fell. The price of pure benzene was 9167 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9501 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 3.64% this month and 17% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose continuously this month, and the price rose broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2683 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2950 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 9.94% compared with the beginning of the month and 27.34% compared with the same period last year. Since the middle and late June, nitric acid shipments have increased, and the supply of nitric acid is tight, supporting the continuous rise of nitric acid prices.

Aniline fluctuated mainly due to the influence of raw materials in this month. In the first ten days, the price of pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose, and the cost side was under pressure. Aniline followed the raw material side. In the later stage, although the price of pure benzene fell, nitric acid was still rising, and the downstream demand for aniline was acceptable, so the price remained stable until the end of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: Although crude oil and external market support still exist, some downstream products of pure benzene continue to suffer losses, and the short-term trend is cautious. In the later stage, pure benzene units are still put into operation, mainly concentrated in the integrated units of refining and chemical enterprises, with small external sales volume. New production capacity is still put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is expanding. On the whole, pure benzene will still operate at a high level in the future.

Nitric acid: near the end of the month, the delivery of nitric acid is slowing down, and the price adjustment of nitric acid is expected to be the main.

At present, the profit space of aniline is compressed by the cost side, and there is little room for decline. It is expected to maintain sideways consolidation in the short term, waiting for downstream buying. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic rare earth market price index fluctuated in June, the rare earth market was weak, the domestic praseodymium neodymium price market was deadlocked, and the heavy rare earth market price fell slightly. On June 30, the rare earth index was 845 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.09% from the highest point 1007 in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 211.81% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In June, the domestic light rare earth market price trend was volatile, and the prices of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream of the rare earth market, rose and fell. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide increased slightly, but the prices of metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly. On the whole, the market of light rare earth is depressed. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 970000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.52%; The price of neodymium was 1.195 million yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.84%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 972500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.83%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 932500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.14 million yuan / ton, down 1.30%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.245 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.80%. The domestic rare earth market was weak.

The domestic rare earth market price is in a stalemate, the recent downstream procurement is not active, the number of new orders is relatively small, the market of some praseodymium and neodymium products fell slightly, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly volatile. In late June, Baotou Iron and steel group raised the price of rare earth concentrate, which to some extent enhanced the confidence of operators, and the market price of light rare earth in the market stopped falling and stabilized.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. Automobile production and sales rose sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field was poor, the domestic light rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China fell in June. As of the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.49 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.86%; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.465 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 4.64%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.24 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.14%; The price trend of terbium Series in China has fallen. The price of terbium oxide in China is 14.05 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.95 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the demand for relevant orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises has resumed, and the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, which is expected to boost the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the domestic rare earth market price will be supported to a certain extent, and the price will remain at a high level.

In June 2022, the domestic 1# tin ingot market price fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 271010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 210510 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 22.32%.

On June 30, the tin commodity index was 107.23, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 42.87% from the highest point of 187.70 in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 150.19% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Tin futures market in June 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 2nd, Closing price on the 24th, 2-day Inventory (tons), 24 day Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 262500 yuan / ton, 204860 yuan / ton, 3808.,3726

London tin, 35000 US dollars / ton, US $25175 / ton, 3005.,3435

The overall trend of Shanghai tin this month is still downward. On the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the overall high operation of the US dollar this month have dragged down the market mentality. The non-ferrous metal market is generally under pressure this month, and the metal market continues to be under pressure downward. Lun tin and Shanghai tin are under pressure downward, and have fallen for about 45 consecutive days. The main reason is that affected by the continuous rise of the US dollar and macroeconomic pessimistic factors, the whole non-ferrous sector is downward, and after the continuous rise of tin prices in the past year, The market speculation was heavy, so the funds were withdrawing from profits, and the current round led the decline in non-ferrous metals. After a month and a half of decline, the price was basically flat in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the change this month is still limited, and the overall fluctuation is in the low range.

From a fundamental point of view, the smelter has gradually entered the maintenance period since June. At present, the number of manufacturers offering prices in the market has decreased significantly, boosted by the reduction of supply sources. At present, the manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices, the overall demand performance in the downstream is general, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain wide-ranging and volatile.

Zinc price fell sharply in June

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market fell sharply in June. As of June 30, the zinc price was 24164 yuan / ton, down 7.67% from 26172 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; The macroeconomic weakness intensified, the supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the zinc price fell sharply.

Nonferrous metal sector fell

The continued high inflation in the United States exacerbated the expectation of market recession, and the non-ferrous metal sector fell in an all-round way. It can be seen from the basic metal index and non-ferrous metal current price index of the business society that the non-ferrous metal related index has continued to decline since late April, and the basic metal index and non-ferrous metal current price index have both fallen since the end of May. The market has intensified its concern about the global economy, the macroeconomic background of the metal industry has deteriorated, and the zinc market has followed suit.

The PMI growth of the National Bureau of statistics was less than expected

 
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in June, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, returning to above the critical point. The manufacturing industry resumed its expansion, and the domestic economy slowly recovered. However, the domestic economy fell for three consecutive months, and recovered in June, but there was still a certain gap with the level of the same period last year and the growth level at the beginning of the year. The domestic economic growth was less than expected, and the demand for zinc fell.

Reduction of zinc supply

The European energy crisis continued, the start-up of zinc smelters fell, Glencore and Trafigura group significantly withdrew LME futures warehouse receipts, the remaining inventory in LME Asia warehouse was only equivalent to the global consumption for half a day, the zinc inventory fell sharply, fell to the lowest level in at least 25 years, and the zinc supply decreased significantly.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: the macroeconomic weakness is expected to intensify, and the continued high inflation in the United States has exacerbated the market recession expectation. It is expected that the metal price has peaked, and the support for the future metal price rise is insufficient; The supply of zinc market decreased, and the resistance to the decline of zinc price remained. The overall zinc market is weak in both supply and demand, the zinc price rise is not supported enough, and the falling space is blocked. It is expected that the zinc market will decline slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 1, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 10100 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan / ton lower than that on June 26 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10766 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.19%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a downward trend. Entering this week, the downstream demand of butanone continued to be insufficient, and the supply and demand transmission was slow. Under the deadlock, the market focus of butanone continued to decline, the mentality of operators was frustrated, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was weak. As of this weekend (July 1), the domestic market price of butanone was around 10000-10200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decrease of about 400-600 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of more than 6%. At present, the butanone factory has a certain shipping pressure, the downstream purchasing volume is still weak, the new order transaction performance is general, and the focus is on negotiation.

In the upstream, the domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by weak operation in June, and the civil gas market in Shandong fell violently, with the average price at the end of the month falling below 6000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market price of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong was 6237.50 yuan / ton on June 1, and the reference price of liquefied gas was 5910 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 5.25% compared with June 1.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the effective support in the butanone market is still insufficient, and the downstream mainly continues to purchase just in need. The butanone data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly be sorted out and operated in multiple intervals, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

Overview of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on June 30 was 4494 yuan / kg, which was 4.19% lower than the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1), 4642 yuan / kg; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.79%.

On June 30, the spot market price of gold was 392.50 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 0.24%, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the early average price of 395.54 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.41%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic news

On the 30th, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 80billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. As 10billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net investment of 70billion yuan was achieved on that day.

2. International news

The Swedish central bank raised the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%..

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, expectations of substantial interest rate hikes by some central banks and tightening of monetary policies by major central banks in the world have intensified. In particular, the Federal Reserve controls inflation through interest rate hikes. The price of interest-free precious metals is under pressure, and the early price has been released downward. In this round of interest rate hikes, the rapid and sharp decline shown in the previous round of interest rate hikes has not been seen, mainly because the market has increased concerns about the risk of economic recession, The international economic situation has entered the recession cycle from stagflation, and investors are willing to allocate gold for risk hedging. Superimposed on the geopolitical side, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the international monetary credit system has led to the demand that central banks may change the structure of foreign exchange reserves, both of which support precious metal prices to a certain extent. To sum up, it is expected that the price of precious metals will remain weak and volatile in the short term.

Trend of metallic magnesium in May

In June, the daily average price of domestic magnesium ingots fluctuated between 25500-29000 yuan / ton, the average price in the cycle was 27166.67, and the rise and fall of commodities was -100%. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the magnesium market was in a weak position as a whole, and the contradiction between supply and demand was becoming increasingly prominent. Magnesium factories also continued to reduce their quotations. Subsequently, affected by the rise in the price of ferrosilicon and the price of magnesium getting closer to the cost line, the price of magnesium ingots rebounded slightly.

In the middle of June, the price stabilization mentality of magnesium plants became more and more strong, there was no obvious breakthrough in downstream demand, and the market was difficult to reverse. The overall operation of magnesium market remained weak and stable, and the mainstream transaction price remained around 25000-26000 yuan / ton. A small number of small-scale magnesium enterprises were eager to ship and lowered the transaction price.

In late June, the cost pressure began to appear, the profit space of magnesium plants was continuously compressed, the magnesium ingot Market maintained a weak and stable operation, and the magnesium plants were not willing to ship at low prices due to profits and high temperature weather. Some magnesium plants began to carry out maintenance plans one after another. According to the sales staff of a magnesium factory, the quotation of the factory has been stable at 26000 yuan / ton recently, and they are not willing to ship below this price.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 29, the tax included spot exchange in the magnesium ingot Market was 26166.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 3000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, a decrease of 10.80%, and an increase of 35.34% compared with the same period last year.

Market analysis

Slight increase in export

According to customs statistics, the total export volume of metallic magnesium in May was 44587.325 tons, a month on month increase of 4.93% and a year-on-year increase of 17.40%; The quantity of magnesium powder was 6160.069 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.60% and a year-on-year increase of 5.39%; The quantity of magnesium products was 777.108 tons, with a month on month increase of 82.98% and a year-on-year increase of 55.31%.

In May, the domestic magnesium ingot output was about 85800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.95% and an operating rate of 73.67%. In May, due to the completion of the environmental protection supervision of the northern magnesium plant, the output returned to the normal level. In June, the magnesium ingot market fell to the low point of the year. Considering the cost pressure and the high temperature, the work became more difficult. Some factories began the maintenance plan. It is expected that the domestic magnesium ingot output will decline slightly in June.

From the perspective of raw material relationship

Ferrosilicon fell 4.19% in June

In terms of ferrosilicon, the price of ferrosilicon first rose and then fell in June. As of June 29, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia fluctuated in the range of 8200-8500 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic demand for ferrosilicon is relatively cold, and the downstream steel mills lost money and reduced production. The market’s demand expectation for ferrosilicon is poor. Coupled with the low futures price, the transaction price of ferrosilicon continues to fall. However, the spot price has basically reached the cost line, and the room for decline is relatively limited, In the short term, the spot market is still weak and stable.

Coke fell by 16.05% in June

In terms of coke, in the first half of June, the coke market increased by 300 yuan / ton in two rounds, and decreased by 300 yuan / ton in the second half of the month, and the price fell back to the level at the beginning of the month. As of June 29, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3000 yuan / ton. The coke market as a whole was weak, and the profits of coking enterprises were damaged. At present, the overall start-up was low. However, considering that the demand for coke still exists in the steel plant, if the production limit of coking enterprises is increased again, The coke output is affected, so the second round of lifting and lowering is temporarily stranded.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first half of the year, the overall market of magnesium market was in a downward channel. The main contradiction of magnesium ingots lies in the low demand and rising cost. It is difficult to resolve the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term. At present, the magnesium plant is willing to maintain stability, but it still needs to pay attention to the future transaction.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fell violently in June. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 219266.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price fell to 183916.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 16.12% and a year-on-year increase of 33.11%. Compared with may, nickel price in June was weaker.

Macro aspect: in June, the Federal Reserve of the United States (fed/ fed) took historic measures to combat inflation, raising interest rates by 75 basis points. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States fell in June than expected, indicating that the demand for industrial products shrank significantly in June, intensifying the market’s concern about the economic downturn. The “copper oil ratio” has continued to decline and has fallen to a low in recent five years, indicating that the risk of economic recession has intensified. On the whole, the nonferrous metals sector has fallen sharply recently under the condition of tight liquidity and continuous fermentation of economic recession concerns.

Supply: lunni inventory is still at a low level. The rainy season in the Philippines has passed, and a large number of nickel ore shipments have been started. Indonesia’s nickel pig iron production has increased at the pace of 2000-3000 metal tons per month since 2021. In the future, Indonesia’s capacity investment will continue. The expansion of the scale of converting nickel pig iron to high matte and the release of the output of wet process intermediates. Due to the continuous large-scale nickel iron project in Indonesia, the tight situation of nickel iron in China has been eased. Since the second quarter, the global nickel supply has changed from shortage to relaxation. In 2022, the global nickel oversupply will reach 108000 tons.

Demand: in the downstream, due to the impact of the domestic epidemic in the first two months, the main downstream stainless steel overhaul of nickel has reduced production, while the growth rate of ternary material production has also slowed down significantly, and the demand for stainless steel and ternary materials is weakening. Among them, the national stainless steel output in May totaled about 2.93 million tons, an increase of only 30000 tons compared with the total output in April. It is expected that the stainless steel profit will continue to weaken in June, and the production reduction will continue due to various reasons such as the shutdown and maintenance of enterprises. The estimated output is 2.78 million tons, a decrease of 150000 tons. The growth rate of new energy vehicles picked up slightly. In May this year, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively.

To sum up: the macro negative, low inventory, loose supply and weak demand led to a decline in nickel prices in June. In July, there was still the possibility of raising interest rates by 75bp, adding to the increase in supply, the recovery of downstream stainless steel demand was weak, and the nickel price in July should not be too optimistic, but the low inventory and tight supply still had support. It is expected that the nickel price in July will still operate in a wide range and weak trend.

The spot tin market price (6.17-6.24) fell after the market shock this week. The average price in the domestic market was 249760 yuan / ton last weekend and 218110 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly drop of 12.67%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the overall trend of lead price is weak after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 25th week of 2022 (6.20-6.24), there is one commodity in the non-ferrous sector, with antimony (1.24%) rising. A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, and 4 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were tin (-10.58%), nickel (-9.11%) and cobalt (-7.26%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.37%.

Futures market situation this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 204860 yuan / ton- 40650 yuan / ton, three thousand seven hundred and twenty-six

London tin, USD 25175 / T- USD 5975 / T, three thousand four hundred and thirty-five

In the futures market, the price of Shanghai tin fluctuated this week. The weekly fluctuation range was within 17%. The main contract of Shanghai tin fell sharply this week. The large decline this week was mainly affected by the entry of short funds. At present, the overall inventory of Shanghai tin is still low, and the market is obviously disturbed by funds. This week, the smelter gradually entered the maintenance period. The number of manufacturers offering prices in the market decreased significantly. Boosted by the decrease in supply, the manufacturers’ attitude of price support is strong. The overall demand performance in the downstream is average, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will still maintain a wide range of volatility.