1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6498.57 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6368.57 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 2% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market of PVC fell violently. On the whole, the price fell mainly. With the improvement of the futures market on Wednesday, the confidence of the spot market rose, and the price rose slightly on Wednesday. At present, the PVC market demand maintains the previous level. Downstream enterprises and traders are more wait-and-see, inquiry is OK, spot transactions are general, downstream procurement is cautious, and orders are mainly received on demand. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6200-6650 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of international crude oil futures fell on July 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $96.35 / barrel, down $3.53 or 3.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $103.86 / barrel, down $3.06 or 2.9%. Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday, mainly due to the increase in gasoline inventories in the United States. In addition, at the macro level, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand.

In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide last Friday was 3833.33 yuan / ton, and this Friday was 3816.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.43% during the week. The factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable this week, and the prices of some enterprises fell. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC fell violently this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. Downstream mining is more wait-and-see, mainly receiving orders on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Futures prices rose today and confidence in the spot market recovered. It is expected that the PVC market will run steadily and well in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 21, the market price of acrylonitrile bulk water was 9900 yuan / ton, falling below the 10000 yuan mark, down 8.84% from 10860 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry is still loose. On the other hand, downstream construction continues to decline, market transactions are deadlocked, and traders sell inventory at low prices. As of July 21, the acrylonitrile market offer in East China was between 9300 and 10500 yuan / ton.

Although the price of raw propylene fell slightly, the cost support is still weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 21, the domestic propylene price was 7414 yuan / ton, down 3.46% from 7680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

At present, the downstream ABS operation continues to decline to less than 80%, and the acrylic fiber operation drops to about 70%. The weak demand side has no support for acrylonitrile. The acrylonitrile production capacity has reached 1.04 million tons since August 2021, and the supply side has remained loose.

Aftermarket forecast: acrylonitrile analysts at business club believe that the current oversupply fundamentals drag down the acrylonitrile market, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fluctuate and decline in the later period.

This week, the domestic butadiene market was slightly consolidated. At the beginning of the week, some major production enterprises stopped production, and the market supply side was still supported. Some downstream production enterprises have plans to increase production, which gives the market a certain confidence support. However, at present, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the butadiene market is mainly on the sidelines.

According to the sample data monitored by business agency, from July 8 to 15, the domestic butadiene market price first rose from 10184 yuan / ton and then fell to 10292 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 1.06%, the price fell by 10.56% month on month, and the price fell by 1.96% year on year. In terms of price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 10500 yuan / ton, and the reference transaction price of butadiene in East China is 10200 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market: as of the closing on July 14, the external market price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea closed at US $1325-1335 / ton; CFR China closed at US $1325-1335 / ton. The price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1555-1565 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1475-1485 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Korea, 1325-1335 dollars / ton, 0 yuan / ton

Asia, CFR China, 1325-1335 dollars / ton, 0 USD / ton

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, US $1555-1565 / ton, 0 USD / ton

Europe, FD northwest Europe, 1475-1485 euros / ton, 0 euro / ton

The devices are gradually restored, and the support of the supply side is weakened. At the same time, the trend of the downstream rubber industry is weak, and it is difficult for the demand side to have a sustained positive boost. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by low-level consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell from 12233.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 11200.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 8.45%. On July 17, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.98, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 47.90% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell this week

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price stopped falling and rose this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 7933.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 7.69%. The market price of upstream raw materials stopped falling and rose, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and late July may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic ABS market continued to fall last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of July 15, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12500 yuan / ton, up or down -4.56% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell last week. The main negative reason is that affected by the continuous low crude oil price, the focus of the pure benzene market has shifted downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market, the fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, some maintenance devices have been restarted, the market inventory is expected to rise, and the spot price of styrene has fallen slightly.

The price of acrylonitrile fell last week. The upstream propylene situation has slightly recovered, and the cost support is acceptable. In terms of operating rate, the overall load of domestic acrylonitrile enterprises has decreased, but the market supply is still loose, and the downstream rigid demand is dominant, so buy up rather than buy down. The price focus of propylene still shows a downward trend, which is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Last week, the domestic butadiene market was slightly consolidated. At the beginning of the week, some major production enterprises stopped production, and the market supply side was still supported. Some downstream production enterprises have plans to increase production, which gives the market a certain confidence support. However, at present, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the butadiene market is mainly on the sidelines.

Last week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the support of ABS cost side was weakened. In the macro aspect, the international crude oil has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors, and the recent price fluctuations have intensified, which is bad for the oil chemical industry chain. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, which is generally around 80%. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry. The main downstream players such as household appliances take less goods, and the demand in the field is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer is subject to the market.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to fall last week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. In the near future, the market is dominated by bad market on the floor, and it is expected that the ABS spot market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3833.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 20.96%. On July 14, the carbide commodity index was 100.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.47% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 81.78% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is insufficient

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide in oviganeng this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 3800 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

The market of upstream Lanchan is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. The PVC market price this week fell from 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6498.57 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 27.99%. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the aftermarket of calcium carbide may fall in a narrow range

In the middle and late July, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide rise is insufficient. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in the middle and late July.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 8, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16833.33 yuan / ton, which was 0.98% lower than the price of 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 0.20% higher than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 8, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 21666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from 221333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 1.52% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 was generally weak this week, and the enterprise offer was slightly lowered. The price of raw material chloroform continued to decline during the month, hydrofluoric acid remained weak and stable as a whole, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, the overall wait-and-see attitude of the downstream was strong, the refrigerant enterprises had difficulties in shipping, and R22 prices fell steadily under cost pressure.

Since July, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid has been generally weak and stable. Summer is the traditional peak season for refrigerant demand. Supported by downstream demand, the price of refrigerant R134a rose slightly this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend this week is generally stable and weak, and the continuous weak cost adjustment will suppress the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business news agency, the refrigerant price fluctuated slightly, and the prices of R22 and R134a rose and fell each other. It is expected that there is still some room for the price of R22 to fall in the short term, and the overall price of R134a will fluctuate slightly at the current level.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to be weak, prices continued to be sideways, and there was no significant change in the Henan market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3850 yuan / ton on July 5 and 3850.00 yuan / ton on July 12. The price remained unchanged during the period, up 14.58% from the same period last year.

As of July 12, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 3970 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 3800 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 3800-3870 yuan / ton

The domestic dimethyl ether market remained weak as a whole this week, and the ex factory quotation in Henan market remained unchanged for the time being. At present, the raw material methanol market continues to decline, and the cost has brought some bad news to the market. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has weakened and the price has been reduced, the range is not obvious, and the civil price of liquefied gas is still at a high level compared with previous years. Under the influence of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is still biased, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, the manufacturer’s price support mentality is obvious, and the disk continues to remain stable.

This week, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro level is in a bad situation. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.

On the whole, the current raw material methanol market is weak, and the cost side has brought some bad news to the market. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has weakened, the overall price is high, which brings relative support to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream market is generally enthusiastic, and multidimensional holds to make up on demand. The manufacturer’s price support mentality is obvious. The market is waiting for good guidance. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will be sideways in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the recent trend of sulfur price has fallen sharply. On July 11, the average price of sulfur in East China was 2773.33 yuan / ton, down 20.00% compared with the price of 3466.67 yuan / ton on July 4, and down 30.20% month on month.

The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weak, the demand for sulfur is limited, the shipment of enterprises is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and there are low-cost sources in the market, which leads to increased resistance to the sale of refineries. Enterprises maintain the pace of shipment, and the quotation falls again and again. However, the price of crude oil at the raw material end falls, which indirectly shortens the sulfur market, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is light. In view of all factors, the support for sulfur is weak, and the market is weak. As of the 11th, the fixed sulfur price of refineries in Shandong Province was between 2300-2420 yuan / ton, with a range reduction of 950-1130 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 2350-2560 yuan / ton, and a range reduction of 1000-1150 yuan / ton.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline. The supply of sulfuric acid in the market was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market was weak, the market atmosphere was bearish, and the price of sulfuric acid was forced to decline. As of July 11, the average price of sulfuric acid was 950 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.73% compared with the beginning of the month.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. The price of Monoammonium is stable, and the price of downstream industries is reduced. The purchase of ammonium phosphate is general. The market of diammonium is temporarily stable, the support of raw materials is weakened, the rise of diammonium market is postponed, the downstream is still resistant to high prices, and the demand is weakened. In the off-season market, the follow-up of on-site trading is weak, the market of ammonium phosphate is deadlocked, and the support for sulfur is insufficient.

According to sulfur analysts of business agency, the domestic sulfur market has fallen sharply, the trading atmosphere on the floor is light, the downstream support is weak, and the enterprise quotation has been continuously reduced. The main reason is that the downstream demand is weak, and the sulfur purchase just needs to be followed up. In addition, there is a low-cost source of goods in the market, and the manufacturers have great resistance to shipment. The negative mood in the market is obvious, and the positive factors of short-term market support have not yet appeared. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner, and the specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 11, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was 7800 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on July 4 (the reference price of n-butanol was 8000 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.50%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that recently (7.5-7.11), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is generally weak and running downward. At the beginning of July, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was mainly reorganized and operated, and the market performance on the floor was relatively calm. On the 8th, the quotation of n-butanol factory was slightly adjusted downward, with an adjustment range of 100 yuan / ton. The on-site transaction was weak, and the support of n-butanol market demand was loose. On the 11th, the quotation of n-butanol factory in Shandong Province was slightly reduced again, with a reduction range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of July 11, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7750-7850 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 7800 yuan / ton. At present, the market focus of n-butanol is deadlocked, and the transaction is generally poor.

In terms of upstream propylene, according to the price chart of business club, the recent (7.4-7.8) mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market is 7400-7500 yuan / ton. On the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, downstream rigid demand is dominant, and under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price focus of propylene still shows a downward trend, and the market is in a stalemate due to the long short game. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 7460.60 yuan / ton on July 8, a decrease of 2.86% compared with July 1 (7680.60 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market is general, and the downstream demand is dominated by just demand. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mostly weak, and the consolidation operation is dominated. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.