1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2660 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2610 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.88% and an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year. On August 18, the light soda ash commodity index was 134.36, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.95% from the highest point 189.10 in the cycle (November 7, 2021), and up 112.76% from the lowest point 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the soda ash price is generally weak this week. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton.

Demand: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the glass price fell this week. The average price of glass on Monday was 20.08 yuan / square meter, and the average price on the weekend was 19.92 yuan / square meter. The price fell slightly during the week, with a range of 0.8%. The transaction volume of Shahe market this week is weaker than that of last week, and the transaction center of the market is declining.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 32nd week of 2022 (8.8-8.12), there were 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.96%) and light soda ash (- 0.37%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.47%.

According to the survey data of the business association, the domestic soda price is weak, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively weak, the glass market is declining, and the demand for soda is general. Most of the products are purchased on demand. It is expected that the soda price in the later period will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong is 1080 yuan / ton, with an increase of 66.8% over the same period last year. On August 14, the caustic soda commodity index was 155.40, which was the same as yesterday, down 41.46% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (October 27, 2021), and up 138.67% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price is temporarily stable this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1100 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1090-1250 yuan / ton. The market maintained a weak and stable trend, and the downstream enterprises mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise’s shipment is general, the on-site wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. Due to the price reduction, the manufacturer is willing to support the price.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 32nd week of 2022 (8.8-8.12), there were 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.96%) and light soda ash (- 0.37%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.47%.

The analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been adjusted and operated. Due to the price reduction, the manufacturers have the intention to support the price. The downstream alumina has an obvious wait-and-see attitude. It is mainly purchased on demand, and the overall demand is limited. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak adjustment of caustic soda will be mainly operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, DBP prices fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DBP price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 15, DBP price was 8600 yuan / ton, down 3.19% from 8883.33 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The DBP market fell this week, and the demand for DBP cost reduction was insufficient.

This week, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of n-butanol fell this week. On August 15, the price of n-butanol was 6600 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 6800 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The decline of n-butanol gradually stopped, and the market as a whole was in a weak consolidation operation. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was relatively light, and the rhythm of downstream goods preparation was calm. Most of them were just needed to purchase, and some operators sold out profits. The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell, and the pressure of n-butanol in the future was greater.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 15, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8062.50 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from the price of phthalic anhydride on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the raw material cost of DBP was strong and stable temporarily, and the downward pressure of DBP in the future weakened.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 15, the PVC price was 6557.14 yuan / ton, down 2.15% from 6701.43 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. Affected by the high temperature, power supply and production were limited in some areas, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, the demand of DBP declined, and the downward pressure of DBP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of high temperature limit, DBP equipment has been shut down and overhauled more recently, and DBP supply has been reduced; The prices of n-butanol and isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOTP decreased; The operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased, and the demand for PVC decreased. In the future, the price of raw materials will drop, the cost of DBP will drop, the commencement of PVC will drop, the demand of DBP will fall, and the cost of DBP demand will fall. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 16, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7766.67 yuan / ton, up 7.37% compared with the price on last Tuesday (August 9), down 2.51% compared with the price on July 16, and down 24.60% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the recent period (8.9-8.16), the melamine market was stable first and then rose. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fluctuated slightly, with limited impact on the cost side. On the supply side, some enterprises in some regions stopped or reduced production, the market supply was reduced, the supply side supported the price of melamine to rise, and the downstream just needed purchase was the main one. The demand side was flat.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on August 15. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost was generally supported. In terms of demand, agricultural demand has basically ended and industrial demand has increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and the just need to purchase is the main one. The compound fertilizer factory follows up on the bargain hunting. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

According to the melamine analysts of business agency, the current cost support is general, and the operating rate of the melamine market is declining, which supports the strong operation of the market. However, the downstream demand performance is flat, and the market mentality is still cautious. It is expected that the melamine market will be strong in the short term, so we need to pay more attention to the market information and guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, toluene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 5, the price was 7560 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 7460 yuan / ton, down 1.32% from last week; Up 29.24% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, due to the weakness of crude oil and the poor market demand, the domestic toluene market mentality was empty, and the price was weak and fell. In the second half of the week, with the improvement of the terminal gasoline market and the widening of the price difference between toluene and xylene, the enthusiasm for purchasing toluene in the downstream increased. Supported by the demand, toluene rebounded slightly.

On the external market, toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (August 11), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $890 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $52 / T, a decrease of 5.52%.

In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On August 5, the price was 15800 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 16525 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.59% over last week and 14.56% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On August 5, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with last week, the price was the same, an increase of 23.29% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fluctuated upward this week. On August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 8656 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.18% over last week and 14.28% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

Cost side: the crude oil trend is still uncertain, and the cost side is unstable; Demand side: the demand for gasoline blending increases, but the downstream demand of chemical industry continues to be weak. In general, toluene may fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

The price of acetic anhydride fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 6200 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from 6225 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend. This week, the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton, the cost fell and the demand was weak. This week, the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly.

This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that the price of acetic acid fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic acid was 3362.50 yuan / ton, down 3.24% from the price of 3475 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; The demand is insufficient, the price of acetic acid drops, the cost of acetic anhydride drops, and the pressure of acetic anhydride drop increases.

This week, methanol prices rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that the methanol price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 12, the methanol price was 2460 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 2473.33 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; Compared with the methanol price of 2546.67 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week, it dropped by 3.40%. The energy crisis still exists, the price of methanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride decreases, the driving force of acetic anhydride rises is weakened, and the downward pressure still exists.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of business club, raw material methanol fell in shock this week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will drop slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 7 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8266 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 83 yuan / ton, down 1%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8216 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, down 0.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (8.7-8.11), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak trend. At the beginning of this week, the domestic n-propanol market was mainly operated stably, and the market was not changed much. On the 10th and 11th of the weekend, the n-propanol market in Shandong continued to move downward. The major manufacturers in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Some n-propanol suppliers followed the footsteps of the major manufacturers and also adjusted the delivery price of n-propanol downward by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of August 11, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is relatively stable, the transmission of supply and demand is normal, and the news on the market is relatively calm. The analysts of n-propanol of business club believe that in the short term, the adjustment and operation of the domestic n-propanol market will be the main one, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of August 7, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7233.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday (August 1), down 17.80% compared with that of July 7, and 29.32% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent (8.1-8.7) melamine market is mainly stable. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen slightly, the cost side is generally supported, the supply side melamine market operating rate has dropped to a low level, which has a certain support for the market, the demand side has not improved significantly, the terminal operation is sluggish, the follow-up and digestion ability of melamine is slow, and the purchase is mainly based on demand.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on August 5. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was general. From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is increased. In some areas, agricultural topdressing has gradually ended, and agricultural demand has weakened. The compound fertilizer is ready to produce autumn fertilizer, and the demand for urea is increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and it mainly needs to purchase. The melamine price is low, and the enthusiasm for urea purchase is general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons.

The melamine analyst of Business Association believes that the current price of raw material urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the market operating rate is low, but the demand side is still general. It is expected that the melamine market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. On August 7, the calcium carbide commodity index was 103.06, which was the same as yesterday, down 51.44% from the highest point 212.23 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 85.73% from the lowest point 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream orchid charcoal is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 6775.11 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6668.57 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 26.82%. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the calcium carbide market may fall in a narrow range

In the middle and early ten days of August, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market is slightly decreased, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in the middle and early August.

The domestic methanol market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 1 to August 8, the average price of domestic methanol market dropped from 2555 yuan / ton to 2546 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.33% in the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00%.

As of the closing of August 8, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The opening price of ma2209 contract was 2472 yuan / ton, the highest price was 2568 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 2463 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 2547 yuan / ton, an increase of 75 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2209 contract was 812100 lots, a decrease of 44900 lots compared with the previous trading day.

As of August 8, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2330 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian area, 2530-2560 yuan / ton, cash exchange

Two lakes region, 2500-2510 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

In Anhui Province, some mainstream enterprises negotiated about 2510-2580 yuan / ton

Henan Province. Ex factory reference: 2600 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, is stable, while the price of coal is falling in a narrow range, and the support of methanol cost is weak; The price of the downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; Among the related products, the price of urea in Shandong dropped the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 4, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 357-359 / T. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, USD 357-359 / T, USD 0 / T

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton

Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The methanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.