According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 2, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7000 yuan / ton, an increase of 434 yuan / ton or 6.60% compared with August 28 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 6566 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.2), the market of n-butanol in Shandong Province was on the rise as a whole. At the beginning of the week, the downstream demand of n-butanol was released and improved, the trading atmosphere was active, and the market mentality was positive. The market situation of n-butanol was steadily rising, with a one-day increase of around 100-200 yuan / ton. As of September 2 at the weekend, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 6950-7050 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase in the week was around 300-500 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction of n-butanol is stable and the atmosphere is normal.

In terms of upstream propylene, this week (8.29-9.2), the propylene market in Shandong Province in China as a whole was on the rise. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on September 1, the reference price of propylene was 7100.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.37% compared with August 1 (7348.60 yuan / ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the n-butanol market is running steadily at a high level, and the transmission of supply and demand in the market has improved compared with the previous period. The n-butanol data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mostly stable and in the middle of the overall operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw materials and news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the trading society, the nickel price fluctuated slightly in August. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 192383.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price dropped slightly to 171233.33 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 10.99%, up 17.11% year-on-year.

On the macro side, the domestic industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above Designated Size in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the US economic data is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

Supply: from January to July this year, China imported 454400 physical tons of nickel wet process intermediate products, equivalent to about 75500 tons of nickel metal, a year-on-year increase of 126%. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel ore and ferronickel in the overseas market has increased rapidly, and the domestic electrolytic nickel supply is expected to be loose. Domestic pure nickel inventory is at a low level. The recovery of overseas nickel mines eased the tight situation. Indonesia’s Ferronickel, wet intermediate products and high nickel matte gradually flowed in, and the excess pressure on the supply side remained unabated.

Demand: downstream stainless steel is still a factor of instability. The implementation of production reduction, high inventory has undergone certain decontamination, but the overall demand is still less than expected. Low price sources and market sentiment lead traders to wait and see, which makes the price performance weak and the industrial chain can not be resonated, which also restricts the nickel price. China’s new energy vehicles continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales slowed down in July, and the global economic downturn may also drag down the new energy market. From January to July, China’s power battery loading volume was 134gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 110.6%, but the ternary battery loading volume was only 41.3%. The growth of demand for ternary batteries was squeezed, which dragged down the growth of downstream demand for nickel.

News: Indonesia plans to impose 2% – 3% export tariff on ferronickel and nickel pig iron. This range may be adjusted with the change of nickel price. This tax policy adjustment may be implemented as early as the third quarter. Indonesia imposed tariffs on Ferronickel, which directly led to an increase in the cost of converting stainless steel and new energy NPI to high nickel matte. However, at present, the stainless steel market is sluggish, and the NPI production process in the new energy field is not the mainstream production process, so the impact of taxation is limited. It is also rumored that the state intends to collect and store nickel, but it is expected that the nickel reserves collected this time will be small and have little impact.

To sum up, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. In terms of demand, the downstream stainless steel and new energy are less than expected. September is the traditional peak season. Demand may improve, but the overall economy is sluggish. According to the annual price comparison chart of business associations in recent years, nickel prices may rise slightly in September, but the overall increase is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely and rise slightly in September.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on August 31 was 94.53, down 0.17 points from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Commodity market: the data monitoring of business agency shows that the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in August was stable, and it was slightly reduced at the beginning and end of the month. Among them, the mainstream market price on the 1st was about 15642.86 yuan / ton, and the main price on the 31st was 15471.43 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.10%. Manufacturers in China’s main production areas have normal production, sufficient market inventory, little change in downstream demand, and the overall transaction is relatively light.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market in August rose first and then fell. On the 1st, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 9620 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, it was reported as 8900 yuan / ton, down 7.48% this month. The supply side operation rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The overall operation rate was around 60%, and the downstream demand was slightly improved. However, the market supply side pressure was still on, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on small orders, and the offers of merchants were slightly adjusted; Although the pressure on the supply side and the cost side currently restricts the action of acrylonitrile, the price of acrylonitrile has dropped to a stage low this month. In addition, the demand side has slightly improved. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be slightly explored in the later period.

Raw material acrylic acid: as of August 30, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7400.00 yuan / ton, down 22.65% compared with the price on August 1, down 49.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 51.53% compared with the same period of last year, according to the data of business agency. In this month, the raw material propylene fell first and then rose. Recently, the support of raw material cost has been strengthened, and the Jinjiu is coming. The market atmosphere has been warmed up. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stronger in the short term. We need to pay more attention to the changes of market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market price rose first and then fell in August, with a drop of 11.69% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6420 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 31st was 5892 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of about 9.63%. In August, the liquefied natural gas market was developed first and then restrained, with a downward trend. At the end of the month, the market demand was poor. In addition, affected by the domestic epidemic prevention and control and the transportation obstruction, the liquid price dropped sharply. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream is strengthened. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to decline in the short term..

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials in this month will be reduced, with a large drop, and the cost support will continue to weaken. Among them, public health events will have a partial impact on the raw material market. The spot stock of Polyacrylamide in China’s market is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, the transaction is light, and the production is normal. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to be stable and slightly adjusted. Pay attention to the recent rise of crude oil and the upcoming “golden nine” may have a driving effect on the market.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 11283 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10583 yuan / ton, down 6.20% and 3.20% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market price of PS (polystyrene) has declined slightly, and styrene has strengthened. However, the purchasing interest of downstream is low, and the shipment of merchants is under pressure, and the profit continues to be increased. Reference for quotation excluding tax of mainstream brands: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 reported 9700 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 reported 11540 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n reported 9620 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p reported 9700 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 reported 10980 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9250 yuan / ton.

At present, the trend of styrene is strong, which boosts the market atmosphere. The impact of low-cost supply in the market and the increase of domestic supply depress the market sentiment. In the game of good and bad news, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will be strong in the short term. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 9200-11000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10400-11700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the downstream trading atmosphere of PS is cold, and it is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will rise or fall in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this month, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 29, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4900 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.41% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

In August, the domestic potash fertilizer market momentum continued to decline, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises continued to decline. Although some enterprises increased their load by producing autumn compound fertilizer, the overall operating rate has dropped from 40% at the beginning of the month to nearly 20%. The downstream consumption situation is poor, the flow of compound fertilizer in the third quarter is slow, and the potassium sulfate enterprise has a low load but a high inventory position, which makes it difficult for the supply side to support the spot. In addition, the previous export sales were affected by the export policy to a certain extent, forming various pressures on the on-site supply. The upstream potassium chloride continued to decline in August. Border trade and port cargo volume continued to be high, imported and domestic goods filled domestic inventory at the same time, and downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchased generally. The competition in the field was strengthened. By the end of the month, the price had fallen below the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. The market price of potassium sulfate gradually declined, the profit situation of merchants was poor, the prices of many regions were inverted, and the news of new orders was rare.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of the Business Association believes that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in August, and the potassium chloride market fell. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is general but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. Combined with the reduction of export sales, it is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 26, the price of lithium iron phosphate of power type excellent products was 151000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated steadily. The price fluctuation range was not large. You Gang mainly needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The contract customers mainly arrange orders and deliver goods, and the number of new orders is limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the current mainstream price range is 150000-155000 yuan / ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate is 151000 yuan / ton. The price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, and it operates smoothly. The price fluctuation range of the main products is not large. Yougang mainly needs to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market operates smoothly. At present, the supply of goods from the manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The main products are orders and shipments from contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, The current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

For upstream lithium carbonate, on August 25, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 470000 yuan / ton, which was 1.95% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on August 1). On August 25, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 492400 yuan / ton, which was 2.67% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 479600 yuan / ton according to the report on August 1).

Chemical commodity index: on August 25, the chemical index was 944 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 32.57% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (October 23, 2021), and up 57.86% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the analysis of lithium iron phosphate of business society, lithium iron phosphate will run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of business community, as of August 19, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3000.00 yuan / ton, down 10.45% compared with the price of 3350.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week, down 14.59% compared with the beginning of the month. During the week, the market continued to be weak. As of August 19, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week are as follows:

Regional. On August 13 and August 19, prices rose and fell

In South China, 3250 yuan / ton, 3100 yuan / ton, – 150

In North China, 3250 yuan / ton, 2950 yuan / ton, – 300

Shandong Province, 3200 yuan / ton, 2900 yuan / ton, – 300

Jiangsu Province, 3150 yuan / ton, 2900 yuan / ton, – 250

Zhejiang Province, 3250 yuan / ton, 3000 yuan / ton, – 250

The domestic acetic acid market is in a weak position. The price continues to fall during the week. There is no good news released in the market. The supply of goods from suppliers is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the purchase follow-up is general. In order to relieve the inventory pressure and make profit, the carriers actively ship goods. The market center of gravity moves downward. Under the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the acetic acid market is in a weak position.

The price trend of acetic anhydride in the lower reaches was weak and downward. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.45% over the price at the end of last week. The market of raw materials in the upstream has declined, the price of acetic acid has continued to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, the downstream just needs to purchase is general, the industry is mainly on the sidelines, the enthusiasm for entering the market is weak, and the market of acetic anhydride is weak.

The downstream ethyl acetate Market was weak and volatile. As of August 19, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 7033 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.24% over the beginning of the week. The lower price of acetic acid in the upstream brought negative costs, and the lower price of ethyl acetate in the downstream made a slight increase in trading volume. However, from the perspective of terminals, the orders in August were insufficient, the overall demand was relatively weak, and the ethyl acetate Market was still weak.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business association, some domestic acetic acid plants have entered the state of load reduction or shutdown for maintenance, and the market supply pressure has been relieved. However, the downstream support is weak, the on-site trading is light, and the situation of weak downstream demand in a short time cannot be improved. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the shutdown of suppliers and the downstream follow-up.

This week, cobalt prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the cobalt price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 22, the cobalt price was 346400 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.12% over the cobalt price of 332700 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. Power supply in Sichuan was limited, and cobalt prices rose in a volatile manner this week.

Sichuan electricity restriction stimulates new energy heating

Affected by the increase of high-temperature power consumption and the shortage of hydropower generation due to drought, Sichuan Province has limited power supply in the near future. Recently, Sichuan Province announced that it would expand the scope of power supply for industrial enterprises, which was expected to last from August 15 to 20. On August 21, it was informed that the power limit time would be extended to August 25. The Sichuan battery factory of Ningde times was shut down due to power restriction, and the lithium salt enterprises in Sichuan were shut down due to the restriction. The production of Ningde battery factory is reduced, the supply of new energy batteries is reduced, and the production reduction of lithium salt enterprises stimulates the price of lithium salt to rise. In general, Sichuan’s power rationing has stimulated the warming of the new energy industry chain.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the news of last week’s purchase and storage stimulated the cobalt price to fluctuate and rise. This week, the cobalt market is stable, but the high temperature and drought in Sichuan have filled a fire for the new energy market. Due to the limited movie, lithium battery enterprises stopped production, and many lithium salt manufacturers stopped production. Lithium salt prices and battery prices were stimulated to rise, and cobalt market was stimulated to rise. In the future, with the removal of the high temperature and the lifting of the power limitation, the start-up of enterprises is bound to resume, and the supply of new energy industry chain will return to normal. The support of the cobalt market rise cannot be sustained, and the cobalt market has limited room to rise. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 23, the pet price of PET water bottle level in this week was operating in a narrow range, with the current average price of 8960 yuan / ton. The overall market was operating in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation was stable, the market supply and demand were balanced, and the logistics delivery was smooth.

The domestic PET price is operating in a narrow range and weak. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan / ton. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. In the short term, pet is operating steadily and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: as of August 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market was 4150 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day and decreased by 38.33 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 22, the rubber and plastic index was 695 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.43% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 31.63% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

PET analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong dropped from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8366.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 53.00% over the same period of last year. On August 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 61.52, which was the same as yesterday, down 55.26% from the highest point 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle and up 75.02% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and general downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers decreased slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 7270.60 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7030.60 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.39% over the same period of last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP increased slightly this week. The DOP price increased from 9062.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9112.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with an increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.84%. The downstream DOP price increased slightly, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In late August, the market price of Shandong isooctanol dropped slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, and the downstream demand was general. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business association, the short-term domestic isooctanol market will be subject to small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.