In the middle of September, the trend of domestic propane market was mostly downward, and Shandong propane market fell significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5915.75 yuan/ton on September 15, and 5668.25 yuan/ton on September 22, with a weekly drop of 4.18%, 0.74% lower than the same period last year.

As of September 22, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/. September 22

Central China, 5950-6150 yuan/ton

North China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5600-5700 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic propane market mainly declined, while the Shandong propane market fell significantly by 100-250 yuan/ton. The international crude oil fell significantly during the week, and the cost was bad for the market. In terms of market supply, domestic refineries have sufficient supply, which brings certain negative effects. In terms of market demand, the current increase in terminal demand is limited, and the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, with a cautious mind, and the market trading atmosphere is general. As the National Day holiday approaches, the manufacturer has a certain demand for inventory arrangement before the festival, and most prices are down.

Saudi Aramco announced in September 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 650 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane was 630 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the international crude oil price has declined and the support from the cost side is insufficient. At present, the increase of terminal demand is not obvious, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The market supply is relatively adequate. With the arrival of the National Day Holiday, the upstream is dominated by inventory discharge, and more price cuts are made to stimulate the downstream to enter the market. It is estimated that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

After the festival, the domestic MIBK market rose slightly, mainly due to the wide upward support of acetone at the raw material end. Under the pressure of cost, the focus of negotiation rose by about 100-150 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation range was 9550-9700 yuan/ton.

The acetone at the raw material end was pushed up, and the pressure from the cost side was increased. The acetone negotiation in East China was pushed up to 5400 yuan/ton, and the acetone negotiation in South China was pushed up to 5500 yuan/ton. Last week, restricted by the weather interval transportation short futures, the price holding sentiment of the commodity holders increased, and the offer rose. This is due to the strong support from the cost side. The commodity holders have a strong intention to push up, but the low price does not rise. 

In the week, the operating rate of MIBK industry was around 80%. Zhejiang Zhenyang’s 15000 t/a MIBK unit was shut down for maintenance on September 17, and the operating rate of the industry continued to decline. It is expected that the supply side will be tightened overall this week. However, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, although the supply pressure is not serious, the downstream just needs to follow up.

The business community expects the domestic MIBK market to be stable or rising, with strong acetone support on the cost side, and MIBK mainly operates at a high price during the maintenance of Zhejiang Zhenyang device, but the increase is limited by the demand side release.

DBP prices rose sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price rose sharply this week. As of September 19, the DBP price was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 4.00% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The cost increases, the plasticizer increases, and the DBP price increases. On September 19, the DBP commodity index was 75.07, up 0.27 points from yesterday, down 32.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 110.50 (2021-10-12), and up 10.85% from the lowest point of 67.72 on August 16, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

The price of DBP raw materials rose in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol rose sharply this week. The price of n-butanol on September 19 was 7200 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from 6666.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. Affected by Jinjiu, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has warmed up, the confidence of the operators has improved, and the price of n-butanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of some enterprises after the festival. The price of raw materials and the cost of DBP have increased, and the impetus for the rise of DBP has increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the rising power of DBP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the Business Club, with the advent of the Golden Age and the Silver Age, the number of plasticizer enterprises has increased. In addition, some enterprises have replenished their warehouses after the festival. The prices of DBP raw materials, n-butanol and phthalic anhydride, have risen sharply. The cost of plasticizer has risen, and the price of plasticizer DBP has gained momentum. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer DBP have both warmed up, and the price support of DBP is mainly on the cost of raw materials. In terms of raw materials, after the completion of the post holiday replenishment, the support for the rise of raw materials will be weakened, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride will be strong and stable, and the cost of DBP will be strong and stable. It is expected that the DBP price will be strong and consolidated in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 19, the price of PET water bottle grade PET in this week was narrow and weak. At present, the average price is 8420 yuan/ton, down 4.32% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is narrow and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is weak, the market shipments are average, and the logistics is smooth.

The domestic PET price is narrow and weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price has decreased slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, the downstream preparation intention is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8500 yuan/ton, which has decreased slightly this week. In the short term, PET is stable and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: As of September 13, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Asian market in CFR China on September 13 was 530 dollars/ton, which was 5 dollars/ton higher than the previous trading day and 6.9 dollars/ton higher than last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 18, the rubber and plastic index was 707, unchanged from yesterday, 33.30% lower than the highest point 1060 (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 33.90% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business community believe that the PET market is expected to operate stably in the short term, with a narrow range being weak. (if you want to know more about the latest market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices.).

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 16, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5800.00 yuan/ton, which had no significant change compared with the price at the beginning of this week. The white carbon black was weak in narrow range. This week, the overall market of white carbon black was mainly stable, with balanced supply and demand. The atmosphere of discussion was general, the overall market was stable, with balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply is normal, and just needed to purchase.

The price of white carbon black market fell by a narrow margin, compared with the price decline trend of the same period last week, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, downstream just needed procurement was dominant, the main contract customers were supplied, the logistics was smooth, and the market discussion atmosphere was flat

Upstream hydrochloric acid: As of September 13, the domestic price of hydrochloric acid had fallen slightly, and the average market price had dropped from 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 153.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year drop of 44.58%. On September 12, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.74% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26), and up 124.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Chemical index: On September 15, the chemical index was 970 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.21% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community thinks that the rubber grade white carbon black will operate stably in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices.).

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 6700 yuan/ton, which was 317 yuan/ton higher than that of September 11, 2022 (6383 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in a rising operation after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15). On the first day after the festival, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market was good. Factory offers were mostly firm, with minor upward adjustments. The adjustment range was around 200 yuan/ton. The cost of dimethyl carbonate was supported by the stable high level of raw materials. Later, some factories in Shandong and Anhui also adjusted their prices upward, The overall market of dimethyl carbonate is converging towards the high-end. As of September 15, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 6500-6900 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is mild, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (9.7-9.13) propylene oxide market has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the dimethyl carbonate industry is in a good mood, and the factory quotation continues to be strong. The dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate mainly in a stable, medium and strong way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of dichloromethane rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3160 yuan/ton, up 6.67% from 2962 yuan/ton last Friday. On the one hand, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly since September, supporting the cost; On the other hand, Jinling, Jinyi and other methane chloride plants operate at reduced load and issue orders in limited quantities. The supply of goods in the region is tight; This week, manufacturers and traders’ offers continued to rise slightly.

This week (9.2-9.10), the domestic methane chloride started to operate slightly, and the Jinling and Jinyi methane chloride plants operated at a reduced load with a total of 740000 tons/year. It supports the dichloromethane market.

This week (9.2-9.10), the spot price of methanol rose significantly, and the cost support strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 10, the spot price of methanol was 2714 yuan/ton, up 6.22% from 2553 on Friday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

With the arrival of the tenth quarter of the traditional “golden nine silver” season, the downstream thinner, cleaning and pharmaceutical industries have a small stock, and the support for dichloromethane has increased slightly.

Future market forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply side of methane chloride has declined slightly in the short term, and the cost side has risen significantly. In addition, the downstream demand of Jinjiu has increased slightly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rebound slightly in the later period, but the extent of the rebound is limited by the extent of the increase in demand side.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the sample enterprises of the business community was 9066.67 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the price of the sample enterprises was 9510.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.89%. The price rose 5.96% year on year.

styrene

Styrene market prices rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene has mainly increased in recent two weeks, and this week the price has continued to rise. The main reasons for the rise are the wide fluctuation of crude oil, the improvement of downstream demand compared with the previous period, the good market transaction, the decline of port inventory, the smooth delivery of styrene to the warehouse, and the rise of spot market due to the atmosphere of replenishment before the holiday.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell slightly after rising this week. On September 2, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the average price was 7608 yuan/ton). On Friday (September 9), the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan/ton (the average price was 7767 yuan/ton). The average price was 2.08% higher than last week and 1.93% lower than the same period last year. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10550 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10466 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.79% and a decrease of 4.27% compared with the same period of last year. The crude oil rose, the raw material surface was firm, and the petrochemical manufacturers stabilized their prices. As the Mid Autumn Festival holiday approached, the enthusiasm of traders for trading was weakened, and the market trading was weak. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9800-10900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10350-11600 yuan / ton.

The average price of EPS common materials this week is 11450 yuan / ton. The cost support is good, and the focus of market negotiation is higher. The South China market was boosted by futures and the rising trend of the mainstream East China market. The holders of goods rose along the trend, with low enthusiasm for buying orders. The EPS market quotation was weak. The manufacturers maintained stable prices for shipment, and the downstream mainly relied on demand.

The domestic ABS market has risen this week, and the spot prices of various brands have increased. As of September 9, the average price of mainstream general-purpose ABS offers was about 11900 yuan / ton, up or down by + 1.71% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the commencement of some ABS production lines in the early stage will be fulfilled, and the on-site supply will continue to be abundant, and the supply side will not reduce its pressure on the market. In terms of demand, there are two festivals in the near future. Downstream enterprises are more willing to stock up. In addition, some terminal enterprises have lifted the high temperature power rationing. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation. However, it still takes time for downstream demand to keep pace with progress. The increase in the market offer is mainly due to the stronger mentality of sellers.

At present, the supply of styrene market is relatively tight, and the downstream commencement has increased slightly. On the whole, if the raw materials increase next week, the styrene market will follow the trend.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3650 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.50%. On September 4, the calcium carbide commodity index was 97.82, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.91% from 212.23 points (October 26, 2021), the highest point in the cycle, and up 76.28% from 55.49 points, the lowest point on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is enhanced, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week

The market price of upstream orchid charcoal rose slightly. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the market price of PVC fell from 6532.86 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6454.29 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.20%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.06%. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the calcium carbide price.

The downstream market fell slightly, and calcium carbide fell by a narrow range in the aftermarket

In the first ten days of September, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market falls slightly, the downstream demand is weakened, and the rising power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In late August, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall by a narrow range.

From August 26 to September 2, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China decreased slightly and rose as a whole. It was 7766.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 7633.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 1.72% week-on-week.

Market price of main hydrogenated benzene in China this week (unit: yuan / ton)

Market. The price on August 26 and September 2 rose and fell

East China, 7700 ~ 7800, 7600 ~ 7700, – 100

Shandong, 7600 ~ 7700., 7500 ~ 7600, – 100

In terms of crude oil, oil prices rose as a whole last week due to OPEC + production reduction expectations. However, against the background of continuous interest rate hikes by central banks around the world this week, the market has become more worried about the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy, and oil prices have fallen by a wide margin. As of September 2, Brent’s price fell by 7.97 dollars per barrel, or 7.89%, compared with last week; WTI fell by US $6.19/barrel, or 6.65%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

August 2., 8650, – 200

August 4., 8450, – 200

August 5., 8150, – 300

August 11., 7950, – 200

August 16., 7750, – 200

August 18., 7500, – 250

August 30., 7600., + 100

On August 30, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.

Quotations from other enterprises: 7650 yuan / T from Jingbo petrochemical, 7503 yuan / T from Weilian chemical, 7550 yuan / T from Xinhai petrochemical and 7750 yuan / T from Hongrun petrochemical.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of the K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means falling; The height of the K-bar indicates the fluctuation range. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that after entering July, the price of pure benzene fell continuously and recovered slightly in late August and early September.

This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is weak on the whole, with few quotations from manufacturers. This week, the price of downstream procurement is obviously depressed, and most hydrogenated benzene enterprises are selling at reduced prices. The market turnover is general. In terms of fundamentals, the pure benzene market rose at the beginning of the week and held steady at the weekend. At the beginning of this week, the market mentality of pure benzene was boosted by the rise of both crude oil and styrene, and the price of pure benzene followed the rise. Sinopec raised the listing price by 100 yuan / ton, which again boosted the market mentality and led to the rise of local refining enterprises. The overall market trading is relatively active. At the weekend, with the decline of crude oil prices, the market atmosphere was affected to a certain extent, and the price of pure benzene remained temporarily stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 9400 tons to 59600 tons compared with last week, and the overall performance of the port is dominated by accumulation. In terms of downstream demand, styrene rose significantly this week, which supported the pure benzene market to a certain extent. In general, the supply of pure benzene is still relatively loose at present. In terms of demand, as the double festival approaches, the market is expected to see a certain increase in demand. The fundamentals of pure benzene are still weak as a whole, so it is expected that the price will be weak in the short term. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory and downstream operation on prices.