According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid began to rise in October, ending the continuous decline. As of the 11th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11157.14 yuan/ton, up 11.73% from 9985.71 yuan/ton in early October, down 20.36% year on year.

The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising. The epidemic situation in some northern areas is repeated, some devices are stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is reduced. The price of raw material market continued to rise, with strong support of cost, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rose.

The rising cost of fluorite is obviously supported by:

The market price of raw material fluorite has risen sharply. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year. The construction of fluorite mines is insufficient, and domestic fluorite raw materials are in short supply. In addition to the shutdown of some overseas devices, the export volume of fluorite is greatly increased, the price of fluorite is rising, and the domestic market is rising due to the cost of hydrofluoric acid.

The price of sulfuric acid rises, and the production cost of hydrofluoric acid increases:

The raw sulfuric acid market rose sharply in October and then fell back slightly, showing an overall upward trend. As of the 11th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 366 yuan/ton, up 23.65% from the beginning of October. Recently, some domestic sulphuric acid plants have been shut down for maintenance, the supply has been reduced, downstream users have actively purchased, and the sulphuric acid market has risen, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market up.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, the demand in emerging areas in the downstream of hydrofluoric acid continues to develop, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic, fluoropolymer, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. The demand in new areas is developing rapidly, and the capacity is expected to continue to expand. The demand for hydrofluoric acid continues to increase. With the demand in new energy, semiconductor and other fields, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: the upstream supply of fluorite is tight, fluorite prices continue to rise, coupled with the shutdown of some hydrofluoric acid devices for maintenance, and the shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is expected to start stocking up in the later period. In addition to the long-term development of emerging demand, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to rise in the later period.

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the factory price of domestic paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than the price of 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to more than 70%. At the end of October, a new PX unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was successfully commissioned, which was expected to trigger a downward market trend. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the external price of PX has declined. As of the 3rd day, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 967-969 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 985-987 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

On the cost side: the trend of international oil prices rose. As of the 3rd day, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.17 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.67 dollars/barrel. OPEC will start to reduce production in November, when crude oil production declines, strongly supporting oil prices. EIA data shows that US crude oil exports hit a record high, US total crude oil inventory fell to a 21 year low, international oil prices further rose, and crude oil brought some cost support.

Demand side: The domestic PTA spot market fell first and then rose this week. As of the 4th day, the average price in the East China market was 5770 yuan/ton. PTA maintenance and production reduction capacity has been reduced. With the restart of large factories and resumption of production, the industrial load has increased significantly to 75%, and the supply has increased. However, due to the low actual inventory on the market, the overlapping epidemic situation has reduced the logistics efficiency, and the PTA market has fluctuated. The weak terminal demand led to the further accumulation of the inventory of the polyester factory. As of the 4th day, the inventory of the polyester factory was about 31-38 days. Therefore, the raw materials were purchased as needed. With the approaching end of the winter stocking season, the current operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 65%, which is likely to continue to reduce the load. The polyester industry also has a strong expectation of load reduction. Downstream losses deepened, inventories were high, and orders were limited, which suppressed the demand for staple fiber. Terminal demand was poor, and the price trend declined.

Future market forecast: Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game. In the short term, the macro and supply side will still be good for the oil market. The oil price may run stronger in the future, the downstream demand will be poor, the improvement of terminal orders will be limited, the storage pressure of polyester will rise, and the profits will be compressed again. In addition, Shenghong Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. will have a new PX unit of 2 million tons/year Weilian Chemical Phase II 1 million t/a PX new unit is planned to be put into production in November. Overall, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will fluctuate slightly in the later period.

From October 28, 2022 to November 4, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6512.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6712.5 yuan/ton this weekend, up 3.07%.

On November 3, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 231.47, up 6.9 points from yesterday, hitting a new record high in the cycle and 390.92% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The bidding price in Shanxi continued to rise slightly this week. The downstream deep processing industry still has support. The tar supply is tight, supporting the raw material price to a new high.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and only after a small price correction in one week, the price continues to rise.

In terms of the industrial chain, the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week. As the coal tar price continued to rise, the profit of the deep processing industry was further tightened, and the deep processing industry’s resistance to the high price of coal tar was strengthened again. This week, the traffic in some production areas was blocked, resulting in poor delivery. Therefore, some enterprises started to operate at a certain decline. The overall operating rate of the deep processing industry declined slightly, but remained at a relatively normal level.

The price of coal tar continued to rise this week, but there were some differences in the rise rates of different regions. Under the joint influence of poor transportation in some areas and tight supply of coal tar due to the heavy production restriction of coke enterprises, the price in Shanxi has risen sharply this week. At present, the mainstream price is 6700-6880 yuan/ton. The price in other regions rose slightly this week, with the mainstream price in Shandong Province at 6400-6450 yuan/ton and Hebei Province at 6400 yuan/ton. The downstream market rose and fell by half this week, and the support for tar declined. The profits of downstream deep processing enterprises continued to shrink, and they were somewhat resistant to high priced raw materials. However, as the heating season approaches, the operating rate of coking enterprises is likely to decrease, and the tar will soon enter a period of seasonal tight supply. Therefore, the tar price will be dominated by a consolidation trend at a high level in the future market, and it is difficult to continue to rise.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week. The price of sulfuric acid fell from 418.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 408.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 2.39%, 51.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On November 6, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 63.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 101.46% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market declined slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market declined slightly. The price of sulfur fell from 1350.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1250.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 7.41%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 41.13% year on year. The upstream market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 10442.86 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 11128.57 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 6.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.88% compared with the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market declined slightly, with the market price falling 0.52% from 16016.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 15933.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 23.95% year on year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market has both ups and downs, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the middle and late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream sulfur market has declined in a narrow range recently, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate rose slightly, while the titanium dioxide market fell slightly. The downstream customers were not very enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of November 4, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8566 yuan/ton, which was 150 yuan/ton higher than that of October 30 (8416 yuan/ton), or 1.78% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market rose during the shock this week (10.31-11.04). At the beginning of this week, due to the influence of logistics and other factors, the shipment in Shandong was relatively slow, and the market price of n-propanol fell slightly, by 100-200 yuan/ton. Since the middle of the week, the callback of raw material price has strengthened the cost support of n-propanol, and the market price of n-propanol has started to run steadily upward. As of November 4, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan/ton. There is a large difference between high and low prices in the n-propanol market. The dealers around the country still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiations. There are also differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main way, and we will wait and see the changes in raw material prices and shipments in the future.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream of n-propanol continues to focus on just in demand procurement, and the demand side performance is stable. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, aniline continued its broad upward trend in September this month, and the price climbed to the highest point in the year. On October 1, the aniline market price was 12500 yuan/ton; On October 28, the price was 14700 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 17.6% higher than the beginning of the month and 3.76% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As for raw materials, due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia rose, which boosted the domestic pure benzene market. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7926 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7472 yuan/ton, down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

Nitric acid: nitric acid is stable and slightly active this month, and slightly higher in the late month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2367 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 1.43% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 27.99% lower than that at the same period last year.

In October, aniline overhaul devices were relatively concentrated, and aniline production capacity lost significantly, which aggravated the tight market supply. After the festival, due to the good downstream demand and the continuous tight spot supply of aniline, the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the aniline market was hard to get a single product, so the price continued to rise. With the continuous rise of aniline, the downstream profits are compressed, and the follow-up of high priced aniline slows down. The rise of aniline slows down in the last ten days, and the wait-and-see increase.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: Since China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak.

Nitric acid: Although the downstream aniline and TDI are supported by the rise, the support of liquid ammonia on the cost side is weak, and the upward space of nitric acid price is expected to be limited.

In the short term, although the demand for terminal additives has weakened, the tension in aniline supply has continued, supporting the high price. In the medium and long term, East China’s export contracts are dominated, and prices are expected to be relatively stable. In North China, if the parking device is restarted later, the price may fall back. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.

In October 2022, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose first and then fell. The average price of the domestic market was 14990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15145 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.03%.

On October 30, the lead commodity index was 91.56, unchanged from yesterday, 31.68% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 22.69% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After September, with the downstream battery enterprises entering the peak season, the lead ingot market picked up slightly.

Lead futures market in October 2022

Variety, closing price on September 28, closing price on October 28, inventory on September 28, and inventory on October 28

Shanghai lead, 14875 yuan/ton, 15050 yuan/ton, 55975 tons, 53693 tons

London lead, 1757.5 US dollars/ton, 1992 US dollars/ton, 32750 tons, 28250 tons

From the basic point of view, as the downstream battery peak season is expected to gradually increase after September, the lead ingot is better supported. In terms of supply, the import situation at the mine end is not as good as the market expectation, and the overall supply is still tight. The recent production situation of domestic manufacturers is good, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the resumption of production is active, and the overall supply of lead is slightly improved. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, and the overall demand for lead ingots is well supported. The lead ingot inventory declined significantly this month, but there are many negative macro factors in the near future. The lead price, supported by its own favorable fundamentals, has a stronger anti drop ability than other metals. The recent rise of lead price is not enough due to macro drag, the peak season is not strong, and the upward force is limited. In general, the supply and demand of lead are increasing on the basic level, the market peak season is expected to be strong, and the trading is good. As the battery industry enters the end of the peak season in November, the market is expected to decline, but the overall performance is still fair. It is expected that the lead price in the future will continue to fluctuate in a wide range, with some room for price increase. It is necessary to focus on the downstream demand and the impact of macro factors.

In October, the price of domestic fluorite rose. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2956.25 yuan/ton, 4.65% higher than the price of 2825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year.

Supply side: shortage of raw ore supply, high price of fluorite

The operating rate of domestic supply side remained low. Mining enterprises faced increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines, a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited commencement of fluorite flotation, and insufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, the import of fluorite was limited. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia was serious, fluorite transportation was difficult, and the supply of fluorite was very tight. The price of fluorite rose in October.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

In October, the price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of October 28, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid market was 10442.86 yuan/ton, and the price increase in October was 4.58%. The hydrofluoric acid enterprises started normal, and the demand was guaranteed. The price rise of hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the well-known fluorine chemical industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense, military, and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, and photovoltaic panels. With the demand for new energy, the outlook of the fluorite industry chain has been improved accordingly.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition, the supply of raw ore is very tight in the near future. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market is on the rise, and the demand in the new energy field is driving. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that the price of fluorite in the market may still have a small increase.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the market of POM in October fluctuated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in tandem. As of October 31, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13800 yuan/ton, up or down by+0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In terms of upstream formaldehyde, Shandong formaldehyde market rose first and then fell in October, and the increase was greater than the decrease. The downstream plate factory maintains just in need procurement and the inventory is controllable. Coal price supports methanol production cost. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market is good. The quotation in some regions is adjusted in a narrow range, but the adjustment is not large. The mainstream transaction is stable, and the formaldehyde market changes with the cost.

After the upstream formaldehyde market rose, the POM cost end support was acceptable. In terms of industry load, the current domestic POM industry enterprises maintain full load on the whole. In the second half of the month, foreign investment and joint venture enterprises have carried out partial maintenance. In terms of supply, there is abundant supply and strong competition on the market. In October, many petrochemical plants raised the factory price of POM, but the supplier’s positive effect was not good. After the price rise, the market acceptance was poor, causing a certain decline. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and the location is general. In terms of purchasing, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the supply of high priced goods is relatively opposed. At the same time, there is an early stock of goods, and the overall demand is weak. The merchants and the downstream responded that the actual orders were mainly small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants talk about it alone, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the POM market in October was in shock operation, and the upstream formaldehyde market was rising and then gave back, with an overall increase, and the POM cost support was average. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory and purchase scattered small orders. At present, the supply in some areas of the market may be tight due to shipping and other problems. With the early supplier price adjustment, it is expected that the POM price will still be strong in the short term.

This week (10.24-28), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the decline of last week, with a slight slowdown. According to the monitoring of the business community, the drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong this week was 0.40% (1.82% last week), and the supply pressure was still outstanding. The amount of ammonia released in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Fujian, Southwest and other major production areas increased, and the price also decreased to varying degrees. The mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan/ton near the weekend.

From the supply side, the ammonia emission in the main production areas only increased this week. Since the middle of the week, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian have seen large shipments, and with the manufacturers’ successive price reductions, more efforts have been made to ship. Moreover, due to the continuous weak fluctuation of urea price, many enterprises still switched to liquid ammonia production this week. In recent two weeks, the ammonia volume remained high, and the price was suppressed by loose supply.

On the end, the downstream demand of liquid ammonia is still sluggish, and urea also maintains a weak shock. This week, although the market rebounded slightly during the week, it still did not rise to the level at the beginning of the week. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea rose and fell to 0 this week. As of the 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong was generally 2500-2600 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the downstream industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of plates is generally low. In addition, the demand for compound fertilizer has declined at the end of the autumn peak fertilizer season, and the agricultural demand has entered the slack season. The price of urea dropped from a high level.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of liquid ammonia has maintained a weak shock recently due to the continuous pressure of supply. However, from the middle of the week to the weekend, some manufacturers of liquid ammonia started to raise their prices, with a slight increase in prices. Whether they can rebound later depends on the cooperation of the demand side. As far as the current demand is concerned, agriculture has entered the slack season, industrial demand remains just in demand, and the increase is difficult to boost. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.