Since the beginning of 2022, crude oil, coal, natural gas and other energy have soared, which has affected the price of bulk raw materials. As a result, the cost pressure of engineering plastics products increased, and the profit of polymerization enterprises was poor. In addition, the impact of the global macro inflation economic environment on factories at all levels of the industrial chain makes the industry market momentum weak. According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 25, the decline of various engineering plastics products compared with the beginning of the month was from high to low, PA66-4.95%, PA6-2.11%, PC-2.09%, PET+0.33%, POM+1.22%. The recent domestic market peak season is over, and the demand contraction is hard to change. Polymerization enterprises and traders are caught in a dilemma where costs are under pressure while profits are allowed to go, and prices are almost all green.

Commodity./price on November 1./price on November 25/. unit/month rise and fall

PA66/. 25250/. 24000/. yuan/ton/. -4.95%

PA6/. 14233.33/. 13933.33/. yuan/ton/. – 2.11%

PC/. 18333.33/. 17950/. yuan/ton/. -2.09%

PET/. 7286./7310/. yuan/ton/.+0.33%

POM/. 13700/. 13866.67/. yuan/ton/.+1.22%

PA66

Among engineering plastics, PA66 fell the most in November. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine remained tight and the price was firm this month. Adipic acid fell due to the weak raw material market, and the support of PA66 cost fell. In terms of the industry’s operating rate, PA66 enterprises continue to be affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry’s load is limited, the operating level fluctuates between 60% – 70%, and the market’s spot supply is stable and abundant, leading to an increase in the social inventory. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises tend to maintain production just because they need to follow up on the delivery of goods this month. At the end of the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation has further declined, and they have strong resistance to high price goods. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the center of gravity of prices loosens in the middle of the month, and the stalemate ends and starts to fall. By the end of the month, the average decline was more than 1200 yuan/ton, and the average price dropped to 24000 yuan/ton.

PA6

The domestic PA6 market fell in November due to volatility. Caprolactam and pure benzene in the upstream product chain continue to be in the downward channel, where caprolactam is in loose supply and PA6 costs are generally weak. In this month, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants was lowered from more than 70% to 65%, with stable output and abundant supply. In addition, the production of new units in the early stage also put pressure on the supply side, and the average monthly drop of spot goods is about 300 yuan. In the downstream, the load of textile enterprises decreased significantly, falling to about 54% at the end of the month, and the stock of PA6 chips decreased. The market fundamentals are generally weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

PC

In November, the domestic PC market fluctuated. The upstream bisphenol A has fallen since the end of September, and the price has gradually approached the cost line. However, the continuous downturn of phenol is difficult to support bisphenol A. After the price reduction, buyers were not enough to enter the market, and the market remained weak, dragging down the cost of PC. In terms of industry load, the utilization rate of PC capacity in November was roughly adjusted by shocks of 40% to 45%, and slightly recovered at the end of the month. As the industry neared the end of the year, the maintenance was gradually concentrated, and the supply side was significantly tightened, but the flow of goods in the market was slow, which hit the confidence of enterprises and merchants in price fixing. In addition, PC terminal enterprises are not in a high position to start production, and they need to maintain production just to get goods. The operators are on the empty side and keep a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The actual orders are mainly scattered and small, and the average spot price at the end of the month is about 17950 yuan/ton. On the whole, the weak market supply and demand and cost collapse coexist. It is expected that the PC market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation market in the near future.

PET

This month, the domestic PET market followed the weak decline that lasted for two months in the previous period. During the month, the crude oil price fell, the polyester dual raw material shock weakened, and the support for PET raw material end was insufficient. In the last ten days, due to the slight reduction of the pressure from the maintenance to the supply side of Hainan Eason, the price of repair is narrow, but the industrial load is still up to more than 85%, and the overall supply of goods on the site is abundant. The operating level of the terminal factory is medium to low, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, the actual order delivery is often delayed, and the health events affect the digestion speed of PET, so it is expected that the domestic PET market will be difficult to improve in the short term.

POM

Among the brother products, only POM’s price barely held steady in the month, but the market situation is hardly optimistic. First of all, although the supply of goods is tight, the domestic POM enterprises started at a high level. At the beginning of November, the capacity utilization rate was almost full, and the load at the end of the month was more than 80%. In addition, there was news that two production lines had resumed production recently, so the pressure on POM suppliers gradually emerged. The stock volume of terminal enterprises has been reduced due to the impact of lower commencement. In addition, the operators are cautious in operation and mainly digest inventory due to their bearish outlook on the future market. Most of the traders’ shipments are scattered small orders, and their willingness to pay prices is gradually loosening. The market bears gradually dominate, and it is expected that the POM will end the stalemate and turn to decline in the short term.

Future market forecast

The market of engineering plastics in November was generally negative. In addition to “external factors” such as global inflation and energy pressure, the weakening of its own purchase and sales is the main reason for the negative engineering plastics market in the short term. The load of automobile, textile, household appliances and other industries is lower, and the orders for engineering plastics are reduced. The industry may be difficult to break through from the downstream in a short period of downturn. According to the data monitored by the business community, it is very likely that the future market of engineering plastics products will continue to decline. It is recommended to focus on the international crude oil and upstream product market of various industrial chains.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 24, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7266 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 300 yuan/ton, or 4.13%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since November, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has experienced a broad rise at the beginning of the month and then a rapid decline, and then entered the middle and late November stage. The n-butanol market as a whole is in a range shock operation. The following are the factors influencing the sharp rise and fall of n-butanol market:

Supply: At the beginning of November, due to the special period, the logistics and transportation restrictions in some areas of Shandong Province, the spot circulation of n-butanol in the plant was less. In addition, some plants were shut down for maintenance. At the beginning of the month, the spot supply of n-butanol was tight, and the supply side had no pressure to support the wide rise of the market.

Demand: At the end of October, the market price of n-butanol was relatively low. In November, the downstream of n-butanol was replenished on bargain, the trading atmosphere in the market was improved, and the supply and demand transmission was smooth. Therefore, at the beginning of the month, the demand side of n-butanol also welcomed a wave of positive support.

Under the dual support of supply and demand, n-butanol has risen by more than 8% in just three days as of November 3. However, it was also difficult to hold the high level. After the completion of the periodic stocking of n-butanol downstream, the downstream began to digest the raw materials, and the demand side of the n-butanol market gradually recovered to calm. After the support from the demand side of n-butanol loosened, the market price of n-butanol quickly fell back to a high level on the 7th, with a drop of nearly 6% in the third day.

Compared with the “high opening and low moving” market at the beginning of the month, the n-butanol market did not fluctuate significantly in the middle and late November, and the overall narrow range of the market was adjusted. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand for n-butanol was slightly improved, and the inventory pressure of some factories was low. On the 23rd and 24th, the market price of n-butanol rose slightly again. As of November 24th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7400-7700 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price rose by 100-300 yuan/ton.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is fair, and the mentality of the industry is improving. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will be able to steadily rise slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of light potassium carbonate in Shanxi was 9162.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 0.14%, and the current price rose 13.98% year on year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the potassium carbonate market has been declining recently, and this week the market continues to decline slightly. Recently, new sources of imported potassium chloride are being supplemented, but the supply of special varieties in some regions is slightly tight. The downstream demand is not good, and the purchase of just needed goods is maintained. The transactions in the potassium carbonate market are light, and the market fluctuates and falls. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate mainstream factory this week is about 9000-9200 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fallen, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase of just needed potassium chloride is the main demand, and the market turnover is poor. At present, the sales price of 60% domestic potassium crystals in the market is mostly 3400-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3300-3400 yuan/ton. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 3450-3600 yuan/ton (the price is reduced by 50 yuan/ton). The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3450-3500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, new orders for border trade of potassium chloride have not been signed, and the supply of goods may be short, but the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will decline slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 22 was 8300.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (November 17), and 0.81% higher than that of November 10.

Recently, the melamine market has been adjusted steadily. From the perspective of cost, the recent raw material urea market has been running steadily, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the north have stopped for minor repairs, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Procurement is mainly on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the focus of melamine market negotiation is stability.

On November 22, the benchmark price of upstream urea in the business community was 2710.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.14% compared with that on November 1 (2506.00 yuan/ton).

The melamine analysts of the business agency believe that the current cost level supports the market’s price mentality, but the demand level is weak, the supply and demand level is generally supported, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

This week, the lead market (11.11-11.18) went up slightly. The average price of the domestic market was 15410 yuan/ton last weekend and 15505 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.62%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise.

Lead futures market this week

Variety./Closing price./Compared with the same period of last week./Inventory./Compared with the same period of last week

Shanghai lead./15670 yuan/ton./- 10 yuan/ton./45265 tons./+634

London lead./2158.5 US dollars/ton./- 1 US dollars/ton./29625 tons./+400

In terms of futures market, this week’s trend first rose and then fell, reaching the highest point in recent five months. Macroscopically, the US dollar index fell back continuously this week. The market’s expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase was low. The market was optimistic. The negative and positive factors were intertwined. The overall trend rose first and then fell. The trend of Shanghai Lead is basically similar to that of Lun Lead, with an overall shock range of 15,500-16,030 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the price rose to the highest point in nearly 8 months due to the double positive effects at home and abroad. Later, the market’s expectation of interest rate increase was weak, and the price fell back. In terms of inventory, this week saw an overall increase.

Fundamentally speaking, the import situation of the mine end in terms of supply is still tight, and the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the overall supply of lead is slightly increased compared with the early stage. However, as the price of lead ingots continues to rise in the near future, the downstream receiving of goods has slowed down to a certain extent. The recent price drop of recycled lead has squeezed the market space of some primary lead, and the overall inventory of lead ingots has risen. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season is coming to an end, and the market expects the demand for lead to decline in the future. To sum up, the basic supply of lead is increasing and the demand is weak. Although the downstream peak season is coming to an end, the lead ingot export situation is good in the near future, and the market has a strong expectation of future export. On the whole, the lead ingot market is still positive. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong, and the short-term trend will mainly follow the macro factors.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 12 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 46th week of 2022 (11.14-11.18), with tin (3.07%), aluminum (2.54%) and dysprosium oxide (1.77%) in the top three. There were 7 kinds of commodities falling month on month, with the top three products falling by 1.97% for copper, 1.64% for magnesium and 1.48% for praseodymium oxide. The average rise and fall this week was 0.27%.

According to the data monitored by the business community, on November 18, the domestic carbon black price was 12100 yuan/ton. At present, the carbon black market price is relatively strong, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood, resulting in a deadlock in trading and investment.

In terms of cost: the price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material is mainly consolidated at a high level this week, and the price in most regions is temporarily stable. At present, the performance of deep processed products in the downstream of coal tar is weak, especially in the aspect of coal tar pitch. The recent operating load and price in the downstream aluminum market are significantly lower, and the rise of coal tar pitch is hindered. In the short term, domestic coal tar may maintain high consolidation. Fundamentally, the overall price of raw coal tar market is high, supporting the price of carbon black market.

Supply and demand: At present, most enterprises have maintained stable operation, some enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, and the overall operation is likely to continue to decline.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, there is no obvious improvement at present, and they have strong resistance to high price carbon black. In addition, some tire enterprises are limited in starting work, have poor demand for carbon black, and are not enthusiastic about purchasing. New orders are limited, mainly sporadic transactions.

To sum up, it is expected that the carbon black market price will be stuck at a high level in the short term. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the raw materials and downstream market dynamics.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of November 17, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8300.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday, and increased by 0.40% compared with the price on November 1.

This week, the melamine market was mainly stabilized. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw material urea is high in the near future, and the cost support is still strong, which supports the manufacturers’ attitude of price support. From the supply and demand side, the operating rate of the melamine market has increased compared with the early stage, and local transportation is limited. The demand side performance is average. The market transaction is just in demand, and the mentality of the industry is insufficient.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2654.00 on November 16, an increase of 5.91% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the current cost support still exists, and the industry starts at a high level, but the demand side follow-up is slightly weak. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the melamine market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

This week (11.7-11), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the decline of this week was 1.36%, 8.78% lower than the previous month. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 10000-10300 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the decline of upstream raw material pure benzene, higher operating rate and sluggish demand.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week. Adipic acid and upstream products fell across the board, while downstream PA66 prices remained flat. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the industrial chain, the upstream decline of adipic acid narrowed slightly, the decline of pure benzene was 2% (down 4.49% last week), and the decline of cyclohexane was 1.17% (down 6.61% last week), which was negative on the cost side. Downstream rigid demand is dominant, with little change.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued to fall mainly. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. The decline this week was 2%. On the one hand, Sinopec lowered the price, which depressed the enthusiasm of the market. In addition, domestic large caprolactam plants shut down for maintenance, and the market share of pure benzene was squeezed by the inflow of hydrogenated benzene, which depressed the price of pure benzene. The recent concentrated arrival of ships and cargoes has impacted the domestic market. Near the weekend, the price of East China pure benzene is in the range of 6850-7000 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and the trend is highly consistent, but the opening of the curve has widened in recent months, and the decline of pure benzene is stronger than that of adipic acid.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s settlement price was introduced, and the large factories settled at low prices, intensifying the bearish atmosphere in the market. In terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid this week was the same as last week, about 60%. Last week, Xinjiang Tianli device resumed operation and Taihua increased its load. At present, the supply is stable; At the same time, Shenma has a set of devices that enter the maintenance period at the beginning of the month. The other devices have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturers generally accumulate inventory.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the rise and fall of PA66 this week was 0, and the downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

According to the business community, on the cost side, crude oil runs in shock, which is not very good, and the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, so it is difficult for pure benzene to get out of the haze in the later period, and the cost of adipic acid is still empty. The supply and demand may remain weak, and the low operating rate will continue to hedge against the downturn in demand. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

Last week (November 7-13), viscose staple fiber continued to be weak. Most of the manufacturers made early orders for delivery, with few new orders, and the price was weak and stable. After active negotiation during this period, the transaction price of imported dissolved pulp has been introduced one after another, and the price center has been adjusted to the next level. The support for the cost end of viscose staple fiber continues to weaken, and the operating rate of the industry remains low. At present, the overall load of the industry is about 65%. Downstream cotton yarn continued to be weak, with stable prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was light, and some manufacturers had planned to suspend production in advance.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber was stable this week (November 7-13). As of November 11, 2022, the factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in domestic areas was 13220 yuan/ton; The price of human cotton yarn is weak and stable. As of November 13, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price is 17,866 yuan/ton.

Inventory and demand

The start-up rate of viscose staple fiber industry remains low. At present, the overall load is about 65%, and the overall low start-up may continue under the loss making operation of the manufacturer. Renmian yarn continues to be weak, and the operating rate of the factory drops slightly. The manufacturer mainly makes shipments, and the overall delivery atmosphere is light. The downstream just needs a small amount of procurement. The weaving factory has arranged a Spring Festival holiday.

Future market forecast

Viscose staple fiber factory mainly implements early order delivery, with few new orders. Textile terminal demand is difficult to improve for a while. With the weakening of cost end support and poor demand, the price of viscose staple fiber may go down again.

This week, the lead market (11.04-11.11) went up slightly. The average price in the domestic market was 15145 yuan/ton last weekend and 15410 yuan/ton this weekend, up 1.75%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. Since the market entered September, the expectation of downstream battery enterprises in peak season has increased, driving the price of primary lead to rise.

Lead futures market this week

Variety/. Closing price/. YoY/. Inventory/. YoY

Shanghai Lead/. 15680 yuan/ton/.+450 yuan/ton/. 44631 tons/.+689

London lead/. 2159.5 US dollars/ton/.+174 US dollars/ton/. 27100 tons/. – 250

The overall trend of the futures market was strong this week, with Lun Pb hitting a high in three months on Friday. There are many macro positive factors this week. The market sentiment of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase has warmed up. On Friday, a new policy was introduced to improve the domestic market. The metal market was boosted. This week, the main actor, Shanghai Lead, surged to the highest point in nearly half a year this Friday.

Fundamentally speaking, the import of the ore end in terms of supply is not as good as the market expectation, the overall supply is still tight, and the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased. The production of renewable lead enterprises is good in the near future, and the resumption of production is active, and the overall supply of lead is slightly improved. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season will gradually end in the downstream. The market expects that the demand for lead will decline in the future, and the lead ingot inventory will remain de stocked as a whole. To sum up, the supply and demand of lead in the current fundamentals have increased, the market peak season is expected to come to an end, and the trading is fair. Although the downstream peak season is coming to an end, the lead ingot export situation is good in the near future, and the market has a strong expectation of future export. On the whole, the positive factors in the lead ingot market prevail, and it is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 45th week of 2022 (11.7-11.11), of which there are 3 kinds of commodities that have risen by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three commodities were nickel (7.52%), tin (6.07%) and silver (5.08%). There were 10 kinds of commodities falling month on month, with antimony (-1.63%), praseodymium oxide (-1.46%) and praseodymium metal (-1.09%) as the top three products. This week, the average rise or fall was 1.06%.