Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 321.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 301.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 6.22%. A year-on-year decrease of 52.24%. On December 11, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 46.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 75.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 48.95% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose and fell with each other this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from about 1450 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1513.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.37%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 21.72% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 12742.863 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 12757.14 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.11%. It was 0.29% higher than the same period last year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15,933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.03%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the middle and late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to statistics, the domestic phthalic anhydride price will rise as a whole in 2021. The price at the beginning of the year will be 7175 yuan/ton, and that on December 12 will be 8050 yuan/ton. In 2022, the phthalic anhydride price will rise significantly by 12.20%. The highest price in the year will appear on October 16, the highest price will be 10,637.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in the year will appear on January 1, the lowest price will be 7175 yuan/ton, and the maximum amplitude in the year will be 48.26%.

It can be seen from the domestic phthalic anhydride price trend chart in recent five years that the phthalic anhydride price will be at a high level in 2022, and the high market price of phthalic anhydride will generally appear in the fourth quarter. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market will decline in the second quarter, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise in 2022. It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of phthalic anhydride can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, when the price of phthalic anhydride rises; The second stage is the period from late March to the end of July, during which the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell; The third stage is from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly; In the fourth stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply from late October to December 12.

In the first stage, from the beginning of the year to the middle of March, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price rose. The price at the beginning of the year rose from 7175 yuan/ton to 9150 yuan/ton in the middle of March, up 27.53%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market rose significantly. First of all, the domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level of commencement. The on-site phthalic anhydride operation rate was more than 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride on the market rose, and the downstream plasticizer industry rose significantly. The actual transaction was obviously favorable, and the phthalic anhydride market rose. Secondly, the price of ortho benzene as upstream raw material has risen sharply. The domestic market price of ortho benzene has risen from 6300 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.86%. In addition, the import price of ortho benzene in the port area has risen sharply, and the quotation of ortho benzene in the external market has risen. The sharp rise in the price of ortho benzene as upstream raw material has formed cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly.

The second stage is the period from late March to the end of July, during which the phthalic anhydride market fluctuates. The price in late March was 9150 yuan/ton, down to 7950 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 13.11%. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined, and the purchase situation of phthalic anhydride market is general. Recently, downstream demand has decreased, the price trend of ortho benzene has dropped significantly, and the plasticizer market has declined. The superposition of negative factors has led to the continuous decline of phthalic anhydride market price. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started up slightly, and the on-site phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, and the on-site wait-and-see attitude of phthalic anhydride remained. Downstream procurement was poor. Recently, the downstream DOP market trend fell back, which affected the price trend of phthalic anhydride market.

The third stage is from the beginning of August to the middle of October, during which the price of phthalic anhydride rises rapidly. The market price of phthalic anhydride increased by 33.81% from 7950 yuan/ton in early August to 10637.5 yuan/ton in the middle of October. At this stage, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. At this stage, the domestic supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, some units were unstable, and the supply of goods was limited to a certain extent, The order scheduling situation occurred, and the serious contradiction between supply and demand led to the continuous rise of domestic phthalic anhydride market price. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride raw materials is tight recently, phthalic anhydride manufacturers have difficulty in purchasing, they are not enthusiastic enough to start work, the factory has stopped production for more maintenance, and the supply of ortho benzene is tight, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for phthalic anhydride manufacturers, which restricts their production. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, supported by favorable factors, and the price of ortho benzene has risen. The downstream DOP market price rose significantly, and the downstream demand was favorable. At this stage, the DOP price rose 14.51%. The customers actively purchased, and the multiple advantages overlapped, so the market price of phthalic anhydride rose significantly.

In the fourth stage, the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply from late October to December 12. The price of phthalic anhydride dropped from 10637.5 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decline of 24.32%. The market price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply, and the shipment of phthalic anhydride on the site was not good. Recently, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, some domestic maintenance devices restarted, and Anhui Tongling phthalic anhydride began to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride device of Xinyang Group operated stably. Affected by the restart of the device, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%, and the domestic phthalic anhydride capacity was severely overcapacity, The supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient, and the market price drops. At this stage, the downstream plasticizer industry was weak, and the actual transaction was not good. The situation of ortho benzene in the upstream has declined. In addition, the plasticizer industry is in a downturn and the demand is sluggish. The market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen sharply.

To sum up, the domestic phthalic anhydride market will rise in 2022. The price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride is similar to the market price of phthalic anhydride. The downstream plasticizer industry is the direct factor affecting the price of phthalic anhydride. Nefa phthalic anhydride has a great impact on ortho phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will also be affected to some extent.

Future forecast: the domestic phthalic anhydride market has a serious overcapacity. In addition, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to increase its capacity, and the neighboring phthalic anhydride is somewhat suppressed. In addition, the real estate market in the past two years is not optimistic, the plasticizer industry has been affected to some extent, and the demand has not increased significantly. In addition, the naphthalene phthalic anhydride continues to impact the market. It is estimated that the highest price of phthalic anhydride in 2023 may still be in the fourth quarter, and the highest price is about 9500 yuan/ton, The lowest price may appear in the second quarter, which is about 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8633 yuan/ton, which was 83 yuan/ton higher than that of December 5 (8550 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market rose slightly this week (12.05-12.09). At the beginning of this week, the overall small increase in the price of n-propanol of Shandong’s big factories led to the overall upward trend of the market, with an increase of 100-200 yuan/ton. The overall downstream demand did not change much, and the purchase of just needed continued. In the middle of the week, some suppliers adjusted their prices narrowly according to their own inventory and other factors. On December 9, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and the barrel price was around 9300-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, the information on the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market is relatively calm. The data change on the supply and demand side is not big near the end of the year, and the downstream may usher in a small range of stock purchase. The n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate upward in a volatile way, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, in November, the domestic vitamin market experienced different overall declines, and the prices of some products further bottomed out, including the prices of vitamin A and vitamin C further declined, while the prices of vitamin E were relatively firm.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C continued to fall in November. The average price of food grade vitamin C at the beginning of the month was 28.67 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 27.33 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 4.67% and a year-on-year drop of 43.06%. The factory continued to stop reporting, the traders’ prices followed the market, and the downstream purchase was insufficient. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin C was 22-23 yuan/kg.

In November, the price of vitamin A continued to fall. The average price at the beginning of the month was 108.5 yuan/kg, and the price at the end of the month was 106.5 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 1.84% and a year-on-year drop of 63.9%. The current mainstream market quotation is 100-104 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 29-33 euros/kg. On November 2, the price of Xinhecheng VA was raised to 125 yuan/kg. On November 21, DSM said that the Swiss VA factory would stop production for two months from January 2, 2023, and the market attention increased. However, due to the weak demand, the market transaction focus continues to drop, and the weak vitamin A market is hard to change.

In November, the price of vitamin E fell slightly. The average price of feed grade vitamin E at the beginning of the month was 83.33 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 83 yuan/kg, with a monthly drop of 0.4%. The European market quoted 8.9-9.2 euros/kg. On November 2, the price of Xinhecheng VE was raised to 92 yuan/kg. On November 21, DSM said that due to the cost, VE products were reduced. The news guidance has limited impact on the market, but the price of vitamin E is relatively firm.

Future market forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that: at present, the prices of some vitamin products have hit the bottom, and there is limited room for further downward adjustments. The future market may continue to be weak, and pay close attention to market trends and changes in enterprise production.

In November 2022, the domestic market of 1 # lead ingot will fluctuate upward. The average price of the domestic market will be 15085 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.59%.

On November 28, the lead commodity index was 93.97, down 0.03 points from yesterday, down 29.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 25.91% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the monthly K column chart, it can be seen that the lead price has fluctuated mainly in recent half a year, with the overall rise and fall within a reasonable range and a limited range. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and it has declined overall, but the decline is small, and the overall trend is still dominated by narrow fluctuations in the off-season. After entering September, the lead ingot market began to recover. The peak season ended in late November, and the lead price declined.

Lead futures market in October 2022

Variety. Closing price on October 28./Closing price on November 28./Inventory on October 28./Inventory on November 28

Shanghai Lead/15050 yuan/ton/15580 yuan/ton/53693 tons/41180 tons

London lead./1992 dollars/ton./2122 dollars/ton./28250 tons./24350 tons

In the first half of November, the trend of the peak season continued, and the lead price rose significantly. Since the middle of November, with the cold weather, the peak season for battery enterprises has come to an end, and the lead price has been affected slightly, but it still remains at a high level. Fundamentally speaking, the import of ore end in terms of supply is still tight, the overall operating rate of domestic production enterprises has slightly increased, and the overall supply of lead has slightly increased compared with the early stage. However, as the price of lead ingots continues to rise recently, the downstream receiving of goods has slowed down to a certain extent, and the overall inventory of lead ingots has risen. The production of downstream battery enterprises has been good since entering the peak season, but as the weather turns cold, the peak season is coming to an end, and the market expects the demand for lead to decline in the future, but the recent export performance is fair, the export arbitrage window is open, the market expectation is fair, and the price remains at a high consolidation trend. On the whole, the lead ingot market is still positive. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and strong, and the short-term trend will mainly follow the macro factors.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16920 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16950 yuan/ton on December 1, 2022, the price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in December (12.01-12.05), the overall domestic silicone DMC market was weak and fell slightly. The downstream demand side support of organic silicon is still weak, and the demand side support continues to be insufficient. The supply of some factories is under pressure, and the prices of some suppliers in Shandong have decreased slightly by 50-100 yuan/ton. On December 5, the domestic silicone DMC market price was around 16500-17500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

In 2022, the last month will come, with the opening of domestic logistics in many places, the increase of the circulation speed of goods sources, and the positive macro situation will cheer up the market. In addition, the current silicone DMC market price has fallen to a relatively low level. Therefore, the business silicone DMC data analyst believes that the current silicone DMC market price has been depressed for a long time, and the probability of the market continuing to decline is small. Towards the end of the year, the silicone DMC market may face a demand boost, The market price can operate stably and strongly, so we need to pay more attention to the information changes of supply and demand in the future.

The MIBK market ran smoothly in the first ten days of November. After the middle of the month, MIBK rose sharply due to tight supply, cost support and demand. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the MIBK market price was 11633 yuan/ton on November 1, and the market price rose to 13333.3 yuan/ton on December 1, up 14.6%.

The supply of MIBK market was tight in November. During the month, Jilin Petrochemical’s 15000 t/a MIBK unit was shut down for one month from October 12 to November 10. During the continuous shutdown of Dongying Yimeide’s 15000 t/a unit, the domestic operating rate was 70%. It is understood that the domestic monthly output was 8000 tons, down 10% month on month.

The downstream antioxidant industry has sufficient orders, and the demand for raw materials is fair. The downstream antioxidant 4020 factory mainly delivered more orders, and the factory MIBK directly connected with the antioxidant factory. The distribution to the market circulation was limited, and the traders had few supplies. The attitude of being reluctant to sell was obvious. Other downstream enterprises mainly made small orders, and a large number of supplies were difficult to find, supporting the continuous growth of the raw material MIBK market.

The acetone at the raw material end was boosted by strong support from the cost side. Taking the acetone market in East China as an example, the mainstream negotiated price at the beginning of the month was 5400 yuan/ton, and the market rose to 6150 yuan/ton as of the 28th, with a market increase of 13.9%. Although acetone fell sharply at the end of the month, the main stream of acetone, as the raw material of MIBK products, continued to push up in November, with strong support from the cost side.

From the perspective of the business community, the supply of MIBK in December has improved, and acetone has continued to fall since the end of November, with a significant downward trend. In December, the inventory and maintenance plans of some enterprises in the downstream of MIBK are expected to decline, and the logistics impact in December was great, and the cost increased accordingly. However, on the whole, the current market circulation resources are still limited. The short-term MIBK market is stable and stable, and the negotiation is expected to be 13300-13400 yuan/ton.

In November 2022, both upstream and downstream of the nylon filament market were negatively affected, the market continued to be weak, and the price fell. The supply of goods in the market remained sufficient and stable, the spot supply of caprolactam was sufficient, the price fell, the weakness of nylon chips followed up, the cost side of nylon filament was negative, and the enterprise’s offer was slightly lower. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament fell in November. As of November 30, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 17960 yuan/ton, 360 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 1.97%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 15600 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.50%; Nylon FDY (superior product: 40D/12F) price was 18525 yuan/ton, 275 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 1.46%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Caprolactam ran weakly in November, and the price fell. According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic caprolactam continued to be in the downward channel in November. On November 1, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12500 yuan/ton, and on November 30, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12200 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 2.4%. Fundamentally negative, the prices of upstream crude oil and pure benzene fell. In terms of supply, with the restart and recovery of northern units, the supply of caprolactam has increased, and the terminal operating load still has a downward trend. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand

At present, nylon yarn starts stably, 70% of the total starts are on the high side, the on-site supply is sufficient, the inventory is high, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. On the whole, the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend this month. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials are weak and low, the supply of goods in the market remains stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand for textile terminals will decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell first and then rose this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 186.67 yuan/ton on November 1 to 198.00 yuan/ton on November 29, an increase of 6.07%. The price at the end of the month fell by 38.89% year-on-year.

On November 28, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.21% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, while the downstream procurement increases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride rose from 962.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 995.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.03%. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly. The market price rose from 2011.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.50%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%. Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the hydrochloric acid market may rise slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices rose slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Analysts from the business community believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 28 was 8333.33 yuan/ton, up 0.81% compared with the price on November 1.

The melamine market rose slightly in November. In the first half of the month, the price of raw urea rose steadily, the cost support continued to increase, the operating rate of the melamine market was high, domestic downstream procurement was mainly on demand, local transportation was limited, the market atmosphere was general, and the price of the melamine market fluctuated slightly. In the second half of the month, some enterprises in the north stopped for minor repairs, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The demand side was weak, but the cost side was strong, supporting the market price mentality. The focus of market negotiation was stable and rising.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2798.00 on November 28, an increase of 11.65% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the upstream urea market is currently operating strongly, with strong cost support, high market operating rate, downstream procurement on demand, and partial shipment is not smooth. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will mainly operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidelines.