After the festival, DOTP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, the average price of DOTP was 9900 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the average price of 9800 yuan/ton on January 1. The cost stopped falling and the demand recovered, while the DOTP price rose in shock.

After the festival, the price of raw materials fell first and then rose

According to the data of the business association; As of January 6, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from 9733.33 yuan/ton on January 1. Demand recovered, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose, the cost of DOTP rose, and the momentum for DOTP to rise increased.

According to the data of the business association, as of January 6, the PTA price was 5405.91 yuan/ton, a shock drop of 3.75% compared with 5616.36 yuan/ton on January 1. Crude oil prices fell in shock, PTA demand recovered, PTA cost fell and demand recovered. PTA prices fell first and then rose, DOTP cost stopped falling, and the downward pressure on DOTP in the future market weakened.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, after the festival, the plasticizer DOTP raw material isooctanol stopped rising, PTA prices fell first and then rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material stopped falling. On the whole, the demand for DOTP cost to stop falling has warmed up, and the DOTP price has risen in shock. It is expected that DOTP will become strong and stable in the future.

In 2022, the domestic ethyl acetate market will fall in shock. According to the monitoring of the business community, the annual decline will be 17.65%, and the price will drop from about 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 7200 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the price of acetic acid fell sharply due to the suppression of cost. On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. The ethyl acetate industry is highly competitive, with serious overcapacity. The annual average operating rate of the industry is squeezed below 50%. Especially in the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate fell steadily, and at the end of November, it hit a new low for the whole year.

Specific trend:

Phase I: From January to February, the price of ethyl acetate plummeted from 8800 yuan to 7800 yuan/ton, a drop of 1000 yuan. For one thing, acetic acid fell sharply, dragging down the cost of ethyl ester. Acetic acid dropped by nearly 30% in the first two months. Acetic acid enterprises have oversupply, market supply exceeds demand, and the profits of acetic acid enterprises continue to decline. In addition, in February, the construction started to improve. After the festival, the main factories in Shandong stopped bidding. The factories accumulated inventory and the supply was loose. The manufacturers were forced to reduce prices and inventory, which depressed market confidence.

Phase II: From March to the first ten days of May, ethyl acetate came out of the shock and rebound market, mainly because the main factories in Shandong stopped for maintenance for a long time, the pressure of tight supply was greatly relieved, and the demand rebounded seasonally, so the price was relatively strong. At this time, the price of acetic acid has been at a historical low level, and ethyl acetate enterprises have also maintained a high profit margin.

The third stage: from the middle of May to the end of November, acetic acid continued to decline unilaterally, with a drop of more than 20%. The main reason is the steep drop of upstream acetic acid. 6. In July and August, acetic acid dropped by more than 40%. Moreover, the pressure of supply and demand appeared. With the resumption of the main factories in Shandong, the supply increased sharply. Due to the epidemic situation, downstream shipments were not smooth, and the price of ethyl ester fell again and again.

Stage IV: Since December, ethyl acetate has rebounded from the bottom. The direct reason is that Shandong large factories stopped selling and supply was tightened. The indirect reason was that the epidemic situation led to a sharp increase in the price of ethanol, which led to the shutdown of some ethyl acetate enterprises and the resale of ethanol, aggravating the current situation of the shortage of ethyl acetate supply.

2023 Outlook

On the supply side, the supply pressure of ethyl acetate will remain prominent in 2023. First, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. Especially since the new 350000 ton ethyl acetate unit of Jinjiang Chemical was put into production, the contradiction of oversupply has been aggravated. At present, the capacity of ethyl acetate in China is close to 4 million tons; In 2022, the overall operating rate of ethyl acetate will be 40% – 50%, which indicates that there will still be more than 2 million tons of idle capacity in the future when the demand growth is relatively slow. In addition, domestic production capacity also further squeezed the share of imports. From January to November 2022, the cumulative import of ethyl acetate was 1155.71 tons, a year-on-year drop of 70.58 tons, or 5.76%. It is expected that the import volume will continue to shrink in 2023 with the increase of domestic production. The external dependence of ethyl acetate will also be further reduced.

On the demand side, the downstream applications of ethyl acetate mainly focus on coatings, pharmaceuticals, adhesives and inks. In 2022, due to the epidemic situation, enterprises in the ink packaging and adhesive industry had a great impact, and the demand for ethyl acetate was significantly impacted. It is expected that with the easing of restrictions in 2023, demand will recover. China’s ethyl acetate industry will also get policy optimization, and the market supply and demand will gradually become stable. A steady increase in demand will stimulate prices to return to normal levels.

To sum up, in 2022, ethyl acetate may become the periodic bottom. In 2023, upstream acetic acid has the power to rebound from the bottom, and ethyl acetate is expected to rise with it. However, the problem of oversupply still exists. The supply and demand game will continue. Ethyl acetate will seek an upward breakthrough in price based on the rebalancing of supply and demand, but the upward space should be treated with caution.

Aluminum price fell 3.13% in December

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 30 was 18696.67 yuan/ton, a daily drop of 0.11%, down 3.13% from the aluminum price of 19300 yuan/ton on December 1.

Aluminum prices fell in December, mainly due to the fall of Lunan Aluminum, the external market, the small replenishment of stocks in Wuxi, and the weak downstream consumption.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is 7.26% higher.

Negative factors in policy:

Recently, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that the import and export tariffs of some commodities will be adjusted in 2023, including the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum from 15% to 30%.

The export volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline in the second half of 2022, which is expected to have limited impact on short-term supply and demand. But in the long run, it is not conducive to the expansion of the export volume of electrolytic aluminum.

Fundamental negative factors:

Aluminum prices fell 3.13% in December, mainly due to weak downstream demand. After the adjustment of public health policies in China, most of the domestic enterprises experienced a decline in the rate of on duty, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises was not high. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand for downstream terminals weakened. Some enterprises considered taking holidays in advance, and the dual pressure depressed downstream demand. The downstream is in the off-season, and the performance of aluminum downstream processing enterprises is weak. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum strip, aluminum cable, and aluminum foil has declined, and the demand is expected to decline further. At the same time, the expectation will gradually turn to reality, and the aluminum price will fluctuate slightly.

Although the aluminum price fell in December, it is still at a recent high. On the one hand, the price of raw aluminum oxide is strong, and cost factors support the aluminum price to some extent. On the other hand, the data of social inventory over the same period is still low.

In November, China’s bauxite output was 5.755 million tons, down 6.1% year on year. In November, China imported 11.789 million tons of bauxite, up 53.1% year on year. The price of mineral aggregate is firm, and the transportation is limited due to the epidemic disturbance in Shanxi and Henan; Construction in the north is affected by environmental protection; In addition, some alumina profits were reversed, and alumina production was moved downward. It is reported that in November, China’s metallurgical alumina output was 6.294 million tons, down 5.7% month on month and 3.2% year on year. In November, the alumina operating capacity was 76.6 million tons, and the national operating rate was 79%.

The hydropower generation in Yunnan accounts for 79% of the total power generation. The arrival of dry season will affect the hydropower supply. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan will be reduced by more than 20%, affecting the production capacity of 1.3 million tons. At the same time, the recovery of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan is slow. Some aluminum plants in Henan plan to reduce production due to the arrival of heating season and poor profitability, which will affect the annual production capacity of about 110000 tons. Shipping in Xinjiang is affected by material resources. In the short term, the domestic transport efficiency has declined, the arrival of goods from mainstream consumer areas is still low, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. As of December 29, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum was 490000 tons, and the low stock level was an important short-term factor supporting the aluminum price. However, at present, with the factory inventory of 106,000 tons, the total warehouse is 506,000 tons. The month on month data is rising, which also reflects the relatively insufficient downstream consumption in the near future. There is a tendency to accumulate inventory near the Spring Festival.

Future market forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate is difficult to improve. At present, the supply of aluminum ingots is relatively stable, the demand side is still weak, and the operating rate of large-scale downstream processing enterprises has further declined. On the one hand, the number of new orders at the end of the year declined, and enterprises mainly purchased on demand, with a weak desire to stock up. On the other hand, with the approaching of the peak of infection, the rate of factory arrival and the efficiency of cargo transportation have declined to some extent, and the overall consumption is weak. It is expected that the short-term aluminum price will be dominated by weak operation.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic BDO market fell first and then rose in December, recovering somewhat. From December 1 to 29, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers rose from 9716 yuan/ton to 9740 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.25%, the maximum amplitude was 3.33%, and the price fell by 68.57% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was narrowed, and most traders held a steady wait-and-see attitude. The atmosphere of real order negotiation was light. The supply and demand negotiations played a game, and the market focus was deadlocked. Although some maintenance devices such as Shaanxi Shanhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have been restarted, and the market supply has increased, the demand for BDO of Henan Hemei after the shutdown of the device has been met. The supply and demand parties negotiate and play games, and the market is difficult to rise and fall. In the first ten days of this month, the early maintenance devices of the production enterprises were started successively, and the market supply increased accordingly, while the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the operating rate of enterprises in the downstream industry was low. As a result, the digestion of raw materials BDO was greatly reduced, and the BDO price continued to decline. In the middle of this month, the manufacturing enterprises had a strong intention to support the market, but the downstream industries were mainly wait-and-see, maintaining contract follow-up, just needed small spot purchase, and the focus of delivery and investment rose in a narrow range. At the end of this month, the new and old cycles alternated. The market waited and waited for settlement information, and the atmosphere of actual order negotiation was light. Although some enterprises announced bidding prices, their intention to support the market was strong, but the overall market fluctuation was limited and the increase was not large.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price rose first and then fell, with narrow fluctuations. The price at the beginning of the month remained at 3750 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month remained at 3702 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.28%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports fluctuated at a low level, with 2681 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2631 yuan/ton at the end of the month (as of 15:00 on December 29). The price fell 1.86% during the period. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, after Yizheng Dalian, Henan Hemei, Meike Phase III, Sichuan Tianhua, and Lanshantunhe one set of devices were shut down for maintenance and reagent change, Sichuan Wanhua devices were also shut down due to natural gas problems, and the overall load of the industry dropped to around 60%, with strong support on the supply side. BDO supply level is obviously favorable.

On the demand side, the PTMEG industry load dropped to around 60%, maintaining contract follow-up. The PBT industry started to improve, and the digestion of raw materials increased, but the contract procurement was the main part, and the spot follow-up was limited. The load of PBAT industry is increased to around 15%, and the production of new capacity is delayed. The overall BDO demand has not changed much.

The future forecast shows that the industry is in a loss state at present. Although the domestic BDO market supply has increased slightly, the manufacturing enterprises continue to support the market. The main downstream PTMEG, PBT and other markets were weak, which suppressed the market trend and made it difficult to trade at high prices. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by sideways consolidation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business community, in 2022, the copper price will rise first, then fall, and then rise to the bottom, going out of the deep “V” trend. The copper price at the beginning of the year was 69930 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year it dropped to 66196.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.34%.

As shown in the figure above, from the current copper futures comparison chart of the business community, the current copper futures trend in 2022 is basically the same, and the spot price is higher than the futures price most of the time. At the end of the year, the main basis difference has risen, indicating that everyone is not very optimistic about the future price of copper.

2、 Market analysis

Looking at the trend of copper throughout the year, the whole year is divided into three stages. From January to June, it fluctuated and rose, from June to mid July, it fell sharply, and from mid July to the end of the year, it rebounded.

From January to June and March, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, which greatly impacted the global supply chain. Copper supply was in short supply, global inflation began to intensify, and copper prices continued to rise sharply. Subsequently, the macro environment changed greatly. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates strongly, and inflation in Europe and the United States remained high. In particular, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States reached a peak of 9.1% year-on-year in June, and copper prices began to fall sharply. In July, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates slowed down, crude oil and natural gas prices continued to decline, and inflationary pressures were released. At the same time, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased dramatically, copper demand was released, and copper prices rebounded from the bottom.

Upstream supply:

2022 and 2023 are the big years for the release of new copper mine output. In the first nine months of 2022, the release of new capacity will boost the global copper mine output by about 3.5%. In terms of new output, Indonesia’s output increased by 33%, mainly due to the increase of underground production of Grasberg Project; The output of DRC increased by 28%, mainly due to the continuous ramp up of Kamoa production capacity and the release of capacity of other projects. Influenced by the epidemic situation, weather and community problems, the supply in South America was less than expected. Chile, a major copper producer in the world, was affected by the COVID-19, operational problems, grade decline and drought. In the first nine months of 2022, copper production declined by 6.7%, and concentrate production declined by 9%; In Peru, two major copper mines were shut down due to community problems. In the first nine months of 2022, the copper production in Chile only increased by 1.4%, but the output decreased by 5% compared with the same period in 2019 (before the epidemic). According to the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), from January to September 2022, the global mine copper output will be 16 million tons, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year.

Downstream demand:

Domestic copper terminal consumption is mainly concentrated in power cable, household appliances, automobiles, real estate and other industries. Among them, power cables account for nearly 37%, buildings account for 21%, household appliances (air-conditioning and other refrigeration equipment) account for 15%, and the automobile industry accounts for 8%.

Automobile production: It is shown that the retail sales of passenger car market in January November totaled 18.367 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a year-on-year net increase of 317000 units, of which, since the launch of the preferential policy of halving vehicle purchase tax, 1.39 million units have increased year-on-year from June to November, making a huge incremental contribution.

Household appliances: From January to October 2022, the cumulative output of household air conditioners was 125.95 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. In October, the output of air conditioners was 144.32 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. In October, the number of household refrigerators was 6.9 million, down 9.7% year on year.

Power cable: By October 2022, the accumulative value of completed investment in power grid infrastructure will be 351.1 billion yuan, up 3% year on year. The completed investment in national power infrastructure was 460.7 billion yuan, up 27% year on year. According to the 14th Five Year Plan, the State Grid plans to promote the transformation and upgrading of power grids and vigorously develop new energy industries; With the rapid launch of photovoltaic power generation, onshore wind power and offshore wind power projects, the future power grid will play a certain role in boosting copper demand.

Real estate: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2022, the national investment in real estate development decreased by 9.8%. From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 12386.3 billion yuan, down 9.8% year on year; Among them, the residential investment was 9401.6 billion yuan, down 9.2%. From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8968570000 square meters, down 6.5% year on year. Among them, the residential construction area was 6339.16 million square meters, down 6.7%. The newly started housing area was 1116.32 million square meters, down 38.9%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 817.34 million square meters, down 39.5%. The completed housing area was 557.09 million square meters, down 19.0%. Among them, the completed residential area was 404.42 million square meters, down 18.4%.

In general, the traditional demand for real estate and household appliances will remain sluggish in 2022, and the green demand for wire and cable and new energy vehicles will be relatively stable. In 2023, according to the 14th Five Year Plan, the State Grid plans to promote the transformation and upgrading of power grids and vigorously develop the new energy industry; With the rapid launch of photovoltaic power generation, onshore wind power and offshore wind power projects, the future power grid will play a certain role in boosting copper demand. With the recovery and stabilization of the real estate industry, the overall demand for air conditioners and refrigerators in 2023 will increase compared with that in 2022.

According to the annual comparison chart of copper prices of the business community, copper prices and trends this year are similar to those in 2022. The annual price exceeds 60,000 yuan/ton, and the annual average price is about 70,000 yuan/ton. Except for 2011, copper prices in other years are generally lower than 60,000 yuan/ton.

In 2023, the global copper supply and demand will increase, or the global copper stock will increase by 200000 metal tons. However, since the current copper stock is at a very low level in history, even if the stock will increase next year, the total global copper stock will still be at a low level. Consumer inflation is still at a high level, which will keep the interest rates of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank high in 2023. Economic growth in Europe and the United States will slow down and even recession expectations will increase, leading to a decline in overseas demand expectations or partially hedging the optimistic demand expectations formed by the release of domestic COVID-19 prevention and control. If the inventory is low, it is estimated that the copper price in 2023 will be equivalent to that in 2022, and the copper price will be in the range of 50000-71000 yuan/ton.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the DOP price was 9960 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from 9761 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of raw materials rose, the cost of DOP rose, the price of DOP rose first and then fell, and the DOP market was adjusted strongly.

The price of raw material isooctanol rises in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of isooctanol was 9666.67 yuan/ton, up 5.84% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of isooctanol rose in shock, the cost of DOP rose, and the impetus for DOP to rise increased.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton on December 9. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, the price of raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the cost of DOP rose. The downward pressure on DOP weakened and the upward momentum increased. In the future, the demand for rising DOP costs is still weak, and it is expected that DOP prices will become stable in the future.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the DBP price was 9666.67 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from 9466.67 yuan/ton on December 11. The price of raw materials rose and the demand recovered. The DBP price rose first and then fell this week.

The price of DBP raw materials rose in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton on December 11. The price of ortho benzene fell, the cost of phthalic anhydride became weak and stable, the price of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the downward pressure on DBP weakened.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan/ton, up 9.69% from the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on December 11. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market recovered, but the increase was less than expected. The industry’s strong will was strengthened. The price of n-butanol rose first and then fell, and the cost of DBP rose.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts from the business community, in terms of cost, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and recovered, the price of n-butanol has risen first and then dropped, and the cost of DBP raw materials has risen; In terms of demand, DBP demand recovered but the rise was less than expected. In the future, the demand for rising DBP costs did not recover as expected, and it is expected that DBP prices will become weak and stable in the future.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and recovered. As of the 16th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8175 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the price of 8150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, downstream orders increased, and the market price stopped falling.

The market of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the main influencing factors are as follows:

Supply side: the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight

The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, domestic phthalic anhydride plants are operating stably, Anhui Tongling Neighbouring phthalic anhydride starts to ship normally, Xinyang Group’s 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant is operating stably, and Yamato Hongxin’s phthalic anhydride is operating normally. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintained at more than 60%, the manufacturer’s inventory is exhausted, the supply of goods is increased, and the situation of shipment is improved, and the market trend is rising slightly.

Cost end: the price of ortho benzene is lower, and the cost support is weakened

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. As of the 16th, the price of ortho benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, down 4.88% this week. The overhaul and restart of some ortho benzene units in the plant. According to the increase in the supply of ortho benzene as the reaction raw material from the manufacturer, the ortho benzene market has declined due to the decline of mixed xylene market, and the cost support has weakened. The increase of phthalic anhydride market is limited due to this.

Demand side: plasticizer market rose, orders increased

The DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton, and the domestic DOP enterprises started at a low level of about 50%. For the increase of phthalic anhydride orders, the mainstream DOP price is 9900-10100 yuan/ton. The production of plastic products is normal, the demand for plasticizers is fair, and the plasticizer industry has risen slightly. The increase in downstream demand is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, which has risen slightly.

In the future, the price of o-xylene is weak in the short term, the downstream plasticizer industry is in a downturn, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, but the inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is low. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile in the future.

This week, Shandong propane market rose first and then fell, and then gave up its gains, and finally ended down. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5782 yuan/ton on December 5 and 5762 yuan/ton on December 9, with a drop of 0.35% in the week, up 4.81% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 19, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, December 19

In South China, 5750-5800 yuan/ton

North China, 5750-5900 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5800 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5400-5700 yuan/ton

This week (12.5-12.9), the domestic propane market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, with the liberalization of epidemic prevention policies in various regions, the market atmosphere improved. Downstream companies actively entered the market, and propane enterprises steadily rose. In the second half of the period, the international crude oil and external market prices fell significantly, which depressed the market mentality, dragged down the upward trend of propane, and the news was negative. At the same time, the procurement of downstream chemical products such as PDH was not active, which further depressed the propane market. As of this Friday, the rise of propane had reversed, and the decline was greater than the increase. The mainstream price in Shandong was 5750-5800 yuan/ton.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in December 2022, with propane of 650 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars/ton from last month; Butane is 650 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the news support is insufficient, the demand side has no substantial improvement, the profits of some downstream products are poor, and the procurement is restrained. It is expected that the propane market will be dominated by weak shocks next week.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of December 13, a decrease of 0.80% compared with last Thursday (December 8).

Recently, the melamine market is weak. From the perspective of cost, the raw material urea market has risen after the recent fall, and the cost support has risen from a weak level, supporting the market price mentality. From the supply and demand side, the operating rate of the melamine market was high, but the demand side was low, the follow-up of new orders was insufficient, the enterprise sales were under pressure, and the focus of the melamine market negotiation fell.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on December 13. On December 13, the reference price of urea was 2756.00, a decrease of 1.5% compared with December 1 (2798.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that at present, the price of raw material urea is relatively strong and the cost pressure is rising, but the supply and demand support is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will be weak and stable, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.