According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 3, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price increased by 166 yuan/ton, or 2.11%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first week of the return of the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 (1.29-2.03), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole rose and then remained stable. After returning from the beginning of the week, the downstream demand of propylene glycol market was moderate, and the on-site supply of propylene glycol was tight. After the festival, the market price ushered in a small and steady rise, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the propylene glycol market stabilized and consolidated. As of February 5, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, there is a certain wait-and-see mood in the downstream of the propylene glycol market, and the market is waiting for the downstream demand to continue to release. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that it is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly run with a small rise in February, and more attention should be paid to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 174.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 154.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 11.49%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 47.97% year on year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 5 was 40.53, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.61% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 125.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2020.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1968.75 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.54%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1132.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1187.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.86%. On the whole, upstream support is insufficient, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 500000.00 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 5.66% from February 1.

The domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market fell this week (2.1-2.6). Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been reduced, which has insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. The first-tier manufacturers at the supply end mainly export, while the overseas prices have fallen. The second-tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, while the domestic demand is weak. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and the enterprise quotation has been reduced.

For upstream lithium carbonate, on February 3, the reference price of lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 461600.00, down 0.86% from February 1 (465600.00).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current weak shock of upstream lithium carbonate aggravates the wait-and-see atmosphere of the market, and the market inquiries increase, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market has turned from weak to strong last month, the drawing brand has been shaken and warmed up, and the fiber products have also warmed up to varying degrees. As of February 1, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In the upstream, the propylene market rose steadily in January. From the beginning of the month, the propylene market gradually entered the stage of preparation before the festival. There was a wave of procurement peaks in the downstream, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream goods went smoothly, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. During the Spring Festival, the market maintained a stable trend, the market demand followed up slowly after the festival, and the quotations of individual enterprises fell.

The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last month, the support of PP cost side was acceptable. In terms of industry load, PP polymerization enterprises’ maintenance downtime increased before the holiday, and the industry load fell back to about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as good as expected. After the holiday, they purchase according to demand, and the spot price fluctuates and recovers.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 1, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of January, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, increased, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the middle of the month. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the holiday. After the resumption of work after the holiday, the spot price recovery is less than that of the drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell from a high point last month. As of February 1, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10000 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of January, the increase and decrease rate was -10.18%, with a year-on-year increase of+5.45%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market was first depressed and then rose last month. The market of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost support is acceptable. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to maintain production just in need, the intra-field trading is general, and the buyers operate cautiously. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black price was 11950 yuan/ton on January 30, and the domestic carbon black market price was slightly down this month.

Cost side: the price of high temperature coal tar as a raw material fell this month and remained stable in the near future. The cost-side support of carbon black enterprises has weakened. At present, the operating rate of coke enterprises is stable, and the downstream deep-processing enterprises are stable as a whole, mainly purchasing on demand. The inventory in the coal tar yard has decreased.

Supply and demand: after the Spring Festival, some enterprises that have stopped production for maintenance have resumed production. Under the pressure of high inventory, the overall construction is not high.

Downstream tire enterprises have started construction in succession, mainly consuming inventory in the short term.

In general, the price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material is temporarily stable. With the decline of on-site inventory, the coal tar market has a certain sense of rising sentiment, which supports the price of carbon black. At present, there is no obvious benefit for downstream tire enterprises. It is expected that the carbon black market price will run smoothly in the short term. In the later stage, it is also necessary to pay attention to the raw materials and downstream market dynamics.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2732.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2745.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.48%, up 3.04% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 15 was 127.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 129.62% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support increased, downstream demand weakened, and urea supply was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6232.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.20%, up 34.21% year on year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rising by 50 yuan/ton to 1920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4190.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 9.04%, down 6.05% year on year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5925.00 yuan/ton, and this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5912.50 yuan/ton, down 0.21%, and the current price rose 0.78% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell this week. From the figure above, we can see that the recent potassium nitrate market fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market volatility fell. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal. At present, the supply of goods is mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream maintains the purchase of just needed products, and the market sentiment is poor, and the potassium nitrate market is weak. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the price of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is 3850.00 yuan/ton. The sales price of domestic potassium 60% crystal is mostly 3550-3600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end). The price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factories is 3200-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 62% white potassium in Russia is mostly 3480-3500 yuan/ton in border trade areas (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end), the price of 62% white potassium in ports is mostly 3680-3750 yuan/ton, the price of large particles is mostly 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has consolidated. The Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose steadily this week (1.3-1.6), with the market in Henan rising slightly. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4400 yuan/ton on January 3 and 4475 yuan/ton on January 6, up 1.7% in the week, up 20.62% from the same period last year.

As of January 6, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province/ 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei Province/ 3900-4790 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 3900-4450 yuan/ton

The price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province rose slightly this week, the replenishment of downstream products after the holiday was OK, and the factory rose slightly. In other regions, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the price is stable. Liquefied gas, a related product, showed a good trend in the week, supporting the rise of dimethyl ether, but with the weakening of the international crude oil price, it depressed the mentality of the industry, resulting in increased resistance to the rise, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

The raw material methanol is put into operation, and the price rises and then falls, and the domestic supply level may continue to maintain a high level. It is expected that the short-term market will remain volatile and put into operation.

In general, with the end of the staged replenishment in the future market, the demand is expected to weaken, and the dimethyl ether market is expected to maintain stable operation in the future market in the short term.

The price of DOP rose after the holiday

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 6, the price of DOP was 9850 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from 9750 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of raw materials rose, and the price of DOP fluctuated.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell first and then rose

As of January 6, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, down by 1.71% from 9733.33 yuan/ton on January 1, according to the price monitoring of the business agency. The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, the cost of DOP raw materials was adjusted by shocks, and the downward pressure on DOP was weakened.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride dropped slightly

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 6, the price of o-phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, the price decline of o-phthalic anhydride is slowing down, and the cost of DOP is stabilizing.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, has stopped rising after the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the cost of DOP has stopped rising, and the downward pressure of DOP has weakened and the upward momentum has increased. In the future, the demand for DOP cost consolidation has warmed up, and the price of DOP is expected to stabilize strongly in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.45%. The year-on-year decline was 18.91%. The calcium carbide commodity index on January 8 was 97.38, which was the same as yesterday, down 54.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 75.49% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide in OVA Energy this weekend was 3800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend was 3650 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia was 3700 yuan/ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1450-1800 yuan/ton, and the cost support was average. The market price of PVC rose from 6141.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6155.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.22%. 26.20% lower than the same period last year. The PVC market price rose slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide will rise in the aftermarket or in shock

In the middle and late January, the carbide market rose mainly in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is good. The downstream PVC market has risen in a narrow range, and the downstream demand has increased. The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may rise in a narrow range in the middle and late January.