It can be seen from the above figure that the price of mainstream domestic urea market fell first and then rose this month: the price of urea first fell from 2785.00 yuan/ton on February 1 to 2722.00 yuan/ton on February 15, a decrease of 2.26%, and then rose to 2817.00 yuan/ton on February 27, an increase of 3.49%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 5.43%.

The urea commodity index on February 26 was 130.19, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.53% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 134.15% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In February, the price of urea fell first and then rose, with a weekly maximum increase of 1.08%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic mainstream market price of urea rose and fell each other this month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream products in this month appeared to rise and fall: the price of liquefied natural gas fell first and then rose. The price first fell from 6090.00 yuan/ton on February 1 to 5724.00 yuan/ton on February 10, down 6.01%, and then rose to 6082.00 yuan/ton on February 27, up 6.25%, down 20.52% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing fast) fell slightly, from 1880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1480 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 400 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated, rising from 4233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 4.88%, down 1.41% year on year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this month, from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.11%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased, and industrial demand was better. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply, some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. Urea rose slightly in the future.

Urea rose slightly in the future

In the first ten days of March, the urea market may fluctuate slightly. Upstream anthracite and natural gas prices rose and fell, and cost support was average. Downstream agricultural demand increased and industrial demand was normal. The daily output of urea is about 150000 to 160000 tons, and the supply is normal. Urea may rise slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average price of the domestic rubber-grade premium white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton as of February 24. The white carbon black market operated smoothly this week. Compared with the same period last week, the price was stable, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the price fluctuation was limited.

This week, the white carbon black market is mainly stable, and the price remains stable. The mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton. The downstream purchase is based on demand, and the negotiation focus is stable. The contract customers are the main part, and the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical index: On February 23, the chemical index was 917 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 34.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 53.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The white carbon black analyst of the Business Society believes that the white carbon black market will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the price will maintain about 6000 yuan/ton.

Recently, under the gradually intensified macroeconomic pressure of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase expectation, the oil price has fallen repeatedly. As of this Wednesday, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, WTI crude oil has achieved “six consecutive falls”, falling from the range of $80 to around $74, a drop of nearly 8%.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures fell again, falling more than 3% in a single day. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 73.95 US dollars/barrel, down by 2.41 US dollars or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.60/barrel, down US $2.45 or 3.2%.

The core logic of the recent decline in oil prices is still focused on the high inflation level in the United States. The strong economic data and the month-on-month higher inflation data in January make the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes show that the probability of further interest rate increases. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and May of this year, and the probability of continuing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June is more than 50%. Moreover, the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend will make the interest rate reduction at the end of the year disappear. This has put pressure on the price of risky assets such as crude oil.

In addition, the favorable performance of the market on geographical factors weakened. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has lasted for a year, and the market is waiting for further development of the situation. The negotiation or escalation of the conflict remains to be further observed. Under this node, bulls tend to avoid risks. At present, the decline of Russian oil supply is not as expected. Even though the West has repeatedly imposed restrictions on Russian oil, the Russian oil export has become increasingly stable since the outbreak of the conflict, and the US oil output is close to 13 million barrels per day, as well as OPEC’s adherence to the previous policy and inaction, the supply side is generally empty in the near future.

On the demand side, both positive and negative factors exist. Western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected path of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy. In particular, the news of the release of crude oil reserves in the United States was also negative for the oil market. However, the market is generally optimistic about China’s demand growth. Prior to this, EIA, IEA and OPEC monthly reports have also raised the demand forecast for 2023, and the report is optimistic about the contribution value of China’s demand. In general, the demand side is mixed.

Future outlook: The crude oil analyst of Business News believes that the recent oil market is weak and the possibility of inertia bottoming out exists. In the medium term, the macro pressure of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is lingering, and demand expectations are difficult to improve. The supply side needs to focus on the trend of Ukraine * Russia * conflict * sudden. If the military * business * conflict * sudden expansion, the oil market may end the bottom and have the possibility of further upsurge.

Price trend

The recent domestic PA6 market trend is weak, and the spot prices fall more or less. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.54% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 fell last week. The price of raw material pure benzene is higher than that before, and the cost support is acceptable. The operating rate of some enterprises increased, and the market spot supply increased. Downstream demand is weak, and on-demand procurement is the main part. The atmosphere of transaction on the market is weak, and the spot price of caprolactam is steadily reduced.

Supply:

In the middle of February, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises fell to about 65% in a narrow range, and the overall operation was stable. The total output last week was about 84000 tons. The market supply is stable, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the ex-factory price is loose.

Demand: In the downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industry has increased, and the overall demand for PA6 chips by the end enterprises is moderate, but the spot competition on the market is strong, and the demand side has resistance to the high-priced supply. The market is mostly for early contract transactions, and the actual volume of single transaction has decreased.

Aftermarket forecast

The PA6 market fell in mid-February. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. Caprolactam is stable and weak, and PA6 cost support is general. The market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and the volume of real orders has shrunk. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7400.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 13.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 57.23% year on year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on February 19 was 37.56, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 24.70% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7513.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11033.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.53%. The market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late February may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

The price of polybutadiene rubber rose this week (2.10-217). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11910 yuan/ton, up 3.21% from 11540 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose; Within the week, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier was increased by 300 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants was higher. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11700 yuan/ton as of February 17. As of the 17th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11750~12100 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11700~11750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.10-217), while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9868 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 3.68% from 9518 yuan/ton on February 10.

This week (2.10-217), the natural rubber market corrected in a narrow range, and the impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was slightly empty. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12000 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 0.08% from 11990 yuan/ton on Friday.

Recently, the construction of downstream tires has increased significantly, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strong support. It is understood that as of February 10, 2023, the starting load of all steel tires of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 61.92%, 53.31% higher than that of the same period last year. The starting load of semi-steel tire of domestic rubber tire enterprises was 68.00%, 47.51% higher than that of the same period last year.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business News Agency believe that the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable at present, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. With the increase of tire commencement, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage, and it is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of February 16, down 0.80% from Monday’s price.

This week’s melamine market was weak. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fell first and then rose. The cost support was general. Some units at the supply end resumed production, and the melamine market operating rate increased slightly. However, the demand follow-up was insufficient. The export market was general. The domestic downstream demand recovery was slow. The market transaction was just needed. The contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. The focus of the melamine market was weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on February 16. On February 15, the reference price of urea was 2722.00, down 2.26% from February 1 (2785.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of raw material urea is rising, the cost support is limited, the supply side is abundant, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side.

The domestic epoxy resin market continued to decline. After being driven higher by the cost side in the early stage, the overall epoxy resin market declined as the raw materials went down and its own demand was difficult to improve. The negotiated price in the East China market is 15300-15800 yuan/ton, and the Huangshan solid epoxy resin market is 14400-14800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan/ton in the week.

From the perspective of raw materials, the bisphenol A market fell slightly last week. As of the 13th, the reference price of bisphenol A in East China was 9950-10000 yuan/ton, and the bisphenol A market in North China was discussed at 9850 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton in the week. The bisphenol A plant has a high operating rate, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The key is that the downstream epoxy resin and PC market is down, and the demand for raw materials is light. Under the pressure of shippers’ shipment, the market center of gravity has gradually declined. At present, it has been at the cost line of 10000 yuan/ton, and the short-term BPA has been adjusted in a weak way, with clear news.

The raw material epichlorohydrin market fell slightly. The reference price in the East China market was 8700 yuan/ton, and fell about 300 yuan/ton in the week. The epichlorohydrin market continued to decline. The slight support on the cost side was mainly due to the sluggish downstream market, the scarcity of raw material procurement, and the current industry operating rate remained around 60%.

The rise of international oil prices has driven up the prices of phenolic ketones, propylene and other products in the upstream of the industrial chain, but has little impact on the terminal epoxy resin market. From the perspective of the epoxy resin industrial chain, it is also difficult to form support on the cost side. In the case of insufficient downstream orders, small purchase orders and sufficient market supply, the epoxy resin market may still decline slightly.

Zinc prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the zinc price was 22998 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 4.26% from 24022 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. The demand for zinc in futures is still weak due to the large increase in inventory, and the price of zinc fell in shock this week.

LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week

Time/ London Futures Inventory/ Increase or decrease/ Proportion of change

February 6/ 16225./ -150./ -0.92%

February 7/ 15600./ -625./ -3.85%

February 8/ 19425./ 3825./ 24.52%

February 9/ 21375./ 1950./ 10.04%

February 10 26250./4875./22.81%

From the LME inventory statistics table, LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week. As of February 10, LME’s zinc inventory was 26250 tons, a sharp increase from 16225 tons of zinc ingot inventory on February 6. London’s zinc inventory increased, and the London zinc price fell sharply on Friday. With the end of the winter heating peak in Europe, the operating rate of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to rise, and the supply of international zinc market is expected to increase; The supply of zinc is sufficient and the downward pressure is high.

Supply and demand situation of domestic zinc market

According to the results of incomplete output statistics, the output of zinc and zinc alloy of sample enterprises in January 2023 was 460000 tons, an increase of 1.3% on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 4000 tons on a month-on-month basis, and an increase of 0.6% on a month-on-month basis. The output of domestic zinc market increased, and the supply of zinc market was sufficient. After the Spring Festival, Henan Zinc Plant was put into operation, the supply of zinc market increased, and the social zinc inventory accumulated. Many places in China introduced economic stimulus policies, and the downstream demand recovered, but the demand is still weak at this stage. The supply and demand of zinc market is weak, and the downward pressure of zinc market is high.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analyst of the Business News Agency, in terms of supply, LME zinc inventory increased significantly this week, the supply of zinc in Europe increased, and the supply of domestic zinc market was stable; In terms of demand, the downstream demand has warmed up, but it is less than expected, and the overall zinc market demand is still weak. In the future, the supply and demand of zinc in the market will be weak in the short term, and the pressure on the price of zinc will increase. It is expected that the price of zinc will fall in shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared with the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.74% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 10.37% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of February 10, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise, rising by 3.16% in the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, falling by 1.71% in the month. In general, the cost price of refrigerant R22 showed a rising trend, supported by cost, and the prices quoted by some enterprises rose slightly in February.

As of February 10, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly by 1.71% in February, the price of trichloroethylene remained low, and the cost of raw materials showed a downward trend as a whole. Supported by the relatively low inventory of enterprises after the year, the price of refrigerant R134a remained stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline in February, and the continued decline of raw material cost will further depress the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that in the short term, supported by the recovery of raw material costs, the market price of R22 will continue to be stable and strong; The cost of upstream raw materials is on the decline as a whole, and the price of R134a may fall slightly under the pressure of cost.