In March, the dichloromethane market rose and fell back, showing an overall downward trend. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 31, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2572 yuan/ton, down 3.47% from 2665 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly high of 2845 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has dropped significantly, while the cost of dichloromethane has declined significantly; At the beginning of the month, the pressure on the supply side of the dichloromethane market was relatively low, coupled with the rising price of downstream refrigerant R32 during the peak season, which timely replenished the inventory of dichloromethane, driving up the price of dichloromethane; In the second half of the month, with the early shutdown, the restart of the load reduction device, or the lifting of the load to normal operation, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane increased. In addition, the centralized replenishment of the downstream warehouse has come to an end, and in the later stage, there are many scattered transactions, resulting in a high price drop of dichloromethane.

In March, the start of dichloromethane production was relatively low at the beginning of the month and increased in the later period, resulting in a gradual increase in supply side pressure.

In March, the price of raw material methanol fell sharply, while the cost of dichloromethane fell sharply. According to the business news agency, as of March 31, the spot price of methanol was 2561 yuan/ton, down 6.37% from 2735 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The market price of refrigerant R32 is strong during the traditional peak season. After the centralized replenishment of dichloromethane at the end of February and the beginning of March, the purchase of dichloromethane has decreased compared to the previous period, with small market transactions and weak support for dichloromethane.

Future Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business News Agency, the cost of dichloromethane is declining, coupled with greater pressure on the supply side, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in a weak manner in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the mainstream domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell in March: the urea price fell from 2829.38 yuan/ton on March 1 to 2783.75 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 1.61%. At the end of the month, prices fell 6.59% year-on-year.

The urea commodity index on March 29 was 129.65, down 0.52 points from yesterday, down 14.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and up 133.18% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the perspective of supply side, the price of mainstream domestic urea market rose first and then fell in March

Cost side: Large decline in LNG

In March, the price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly, from 6036.00 yuan/ton on March 1 to 54344.00 yuan/ton on March 30, a decrease of 28.03%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 40.35% compared to the same period last year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) rose slightly, rising from 1480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia dropped significantly, from 4390.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.88%. At the end of the month, prices fell 19.25% year-on-year. Overall, urea upstream products fell sharply, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: melamine price drops slightly

From the demand side, agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand is average. Affected by the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of urea. Agricultural sporadic fertilizer supplementation, compound fertilizer, plate, and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and small orders are mainly needed for procurement. In March, the price of melamine decreased slightly, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.63%.

Looking at the future market, the urea market in the first ten days of mid April may be dominated by a slight fluctuation and decline. Upstream LNG prices have fallen sharply, with insufficient cost support. The daily output of urea is about 160000 to 170000 tons, and the supply is normal. Downstream agricultural demand weakened, while industrial demand was moderate. Urea may fall slightly in the future.

According to monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose first and then fell in March. The market price of sulfuric acid rose from 253.33 yuan/ton on March 1 to 273.33 yuan/ton on March 17, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 7.89%; Later, it fell to 250.00 yuan/ton on March 29, a decrease of 8.54%. In March, the overall market price of sulfuric acid fell by 1.31%. The price at the end of the month decreased 77.61% year-on-year compared to the same period last year.

The sulfuric acid commodity index stood at 39.95 on March 28, unchanged from yesterday, down 78.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 26.74% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated with each other this month, and the inventory of manufacturers is low.

Cost side: sulfur market rises first and then falls

In March, the factory price of sulfur rose first and then fell. The price of sulfur rose from 1126.67 yuan/ton on March 1 to 1223.33 yuan/ton on March 8, an increase of 8.58%; Sulfur prices fluctuated in a narrow range in mid March. The sulfur price at the end of March fell 9.81% compared to the middle of the month. In March, the overall price of sulfur decreased by 2.07%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 67.26% compared to the same period last year. The trend of sulfur market is basically consistent with that of sulfuric acid market, and the sulfuric acid market in March was greatly affected by sulfur market. Insufficient cost support at the end of the month has a negative impact on sulfuric acid prices.

Demand side: titanium dioxide market rises slightly

In March, the hydrofluoric acid market fell first and then rose, with a slight fluctuation. The market of hydrofluoric acid in early March continued its downward trend at the end of February, with the factory price dropping from 9828.57 yuan/ton on March 1 to 9714.29 yuan/ton on March 2, a decrease of 1.16%. Then operate at low position. Towards the end of the month, the price of hydrofluoric acid only slightly increased to 9800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88%. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 0.29% in March. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.07% compared to the same period last year. In March, the titanium dioxide market rose slightly, with the price of titanium dioxide rising from 16683.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 17116.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.60%. Compared with the same period last year, the price at the end of the month decreased by 18.88% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market of sulfuric acid has risen slightly, and downstream manufacturers are more enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future market: In the first ten days of mid April, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream sulfur prices fell slightly at the end of the month, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide market prices rose slightly, while ammonium sulfate market prices fell slightly. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid was moderate, and product trends declined due to supply and demand conflicts. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the Business Society, the short-term sulfuric acid market may suffer from a small fluctuation and decline under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main factor.

Overview of 441 # silicon price trend

This week, metal silicon continued to explore under pressure, and the decline at the end of the week slowed down. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 27, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 16890 yuan/ton, down 1.97% on a weekly basis. Transaction in the spot market is still light, with some businesses selling at low prices, but it is difficult to improve the weak situation. The futures market narrowed its decline this week, falling 1.40% to close at 15895 yuan/ton.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 27th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 16800-17000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 16700-17000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 16500-16700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16600 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 16700-16800 yuan/ton, averaging 16750 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 17300-17400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17350 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price of Metallic Silicon

On the supply side:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces opened this week was 325. As of March 24th, it is understood that the silicon metal furnace opening rate was around 45.39%, with 157 furnaces opened in Xinjiang, 25 furnaces opened in Sichuan, and 39 furnaces opened in Yunnan. Southwest Silicon Plant suffered a comprehensive loss and increased shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved.

Demand:

After rising, polysilicon stabilized, with the mainstream range reaching 20.0-2.20 million/ton, and the domestic supply price generally declined by 5000 yuan/ton. The yield of downstream silicon wafers is low. In order to ensure the order demand for silicon wafers, the silicon wafer operating rate has increased, and the demand for silicon materials has increased. Overall, the silicon material market will maintain a high level of consolidation in the near future, and there is still momentum in the medium and long term.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan/ton, with the mainstream quotation of 18500 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy industry has started construction temporarily steadily, but the weak status quo has not improved.

The domestic silicone DMC market price continues to decline, with a reference market price of 16140 yuan/ton. Organosilicon enterprises continue to suffer losses, and some monomer factories maintain shutdown for maintenance, resulting in a low demand for metallic silicon.

Aftermarket Forecast

In general, supply is stable and demand is sluggish, making it difficult to change the weak situation of metal silicon in a short period of time. However, some insiders believe that the current price of metal silicon is approaching the bottom, with limited space for price reduction, and cost support expected to emerge. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the hydrogen peroxide market in March continued its upward trend in February, continuing to fluctuate and rise. On March 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 806 yuan/ton. On March 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 883 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.5%.

Terminal rigid demand supports the continuous oscillation and rise of hydrogen peroxide market in March

Since March, the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the terminal paper printing industry has increased, and the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable. The transaction in the hydrogen peroxide market has improved. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

Beginning in the middle of the month, the supply was loose, and the overall weakness of the hydrogen peroxide market was dominated by consolidation. On the 22nd, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers again raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the market rebounded. The mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The market of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region remains stable, with an offer of 850 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise, and in Shandong, it had risen to 900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the middle of the month. The quotation for hydrogen peroxide in Anhui Province is 900 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. Terminal demand is improving, and the market for hydrogen peroxide continues to rise.

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst from the Business Agency, the operating rate of the terminal industry increased in April, and the hydrogen peroxide market is still expected to rise in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been stable and weak, with each spot price decreasing in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 24th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13875 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 1.83% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of caprolactam stabilized after falling this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded, and cost support turned stronger. In addition, the load of the caprolactam industry has decreased, and the market supply pressure has eased. Downstream, procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the key. It is expected that caprolactam will slowly recover in the short term, but the current support for PA6 is moderate.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was above 72%, with an overall narrow increase. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is on the high side, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the factory price is loose in a narrow range.

Demand: On the downstream side, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries has increased in a narrow range, but the consumption of raw materials is poor, the demand for replenishment is weak, and on-site trading is weak. The overall demand for PA6 chips is moderate.

Aftermarket Forecast

This week, the PA6 market stabilized after falling. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, there has been a narrow increase compared to last week, but it is still biased towards just demand. Caprolactam is running in a compact manner, and PA6 cost side support is average. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment remains unchanged, but the cost side and downstream demand support are gradually emerging, and it is expected that the PA6 market may turn warmer in the short term.

The price trend of domestic fluorite is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2950 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. The recent market demand for fluorite has not changed much, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

Supply side: Some fluorite enterprises gradually start up

Recently, the operating rate at the domestic supply side has gradually increased, and recently, enterprises have gradually started construction. The supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. However, raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. Overall, the supply of fluorite enterprises has increased, coupled with the general situation of fluorite shipments, and the price trend of fluorite on the market has temporarily stabilized.

Demand side: Low starting point of hydrofluoric acid market refrigerant

The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has remained low, with the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price of 9714.29yuan/ton as of the 17th. This week, the price trend has temporarily stabilized. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been weak and stable, with some hydrofluoric acid plants shutting down, and the enthusiasm for upstream fluorite procurement has decreased. In addition, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have suffered losses, resulting in temporarily weak purchasing sentiment. The low price of hydrofluoric acid in the market has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remains low due to this impact.

The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal rose slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the factory price, leading to a slight recovery in the domestic refrigerant R22 price. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, inventory is within a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a has increased slightly. However, currently, demand based procurement is the main trend. Downstream enterprises are not starting high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. Due to the impact of light refrigerant delivery, the market for downstream R134a has slightly increased. Recently, procurement in the downstream refrigerant industry is not active, with a operating rate of less than 30%. For upstream raw materials, procurement is mainly based on demand, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite is an important mineral raw material in modern industry, and the demand in emerging fields is developing. Fluorite is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, and so on. With the demand in new energy and semiconductor fields pulling, the fluorite market still has some support in the long run.

Future Forecast: In the short term, the demand for fluorite will not change much, and downstream hydrofluoric acid companies will mainly purchase on demand. In addition, the start of the refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. However, the recent supply of fluorite ore is very tight, and the production cost of fluorite is supported. It is expected that the market price of fluorite will remain stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of the Business News Agency, as of March 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to last Thursday (March 16).

The recent market situation of melamine is weak. Recently, the raw material urea market has undergone a narrow consolidation, with little impact on cost. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has increased, but there is insufficient follow-up on demand. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent, and manufacturers’ sales are under pressure. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market has declined.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market temporarily stabilized on March 21. On March 20, the reference price of urea was 2811.25, a decrease of 0.64% compared to March 1 (2829.38).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current high price of raw material urea and cost support still exist, but the supply and demand side is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate in a weak manner, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased slightly this week. Overall, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province this week increased from 9271.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9307.14 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.39%. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 26.91%. On March 19th, the isooctanol commodity index stood at 68.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.15% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 94.99% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support and better downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturers’ quotations, the market quotations of mainstream Shandong isooctanol manufacturers increased slightly this week.

Judging from the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market declined slightly this week, with the price falling from 7464.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7300.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.20%. A year-on-year decrease of 11.69% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials in the market fell slightly, resulting in insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP increased slightly this week. The price of DOP increased by 0.50% from 9960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10010 yuan/ton at the end of the week. A year-on-year decrease of 18.95% compared to the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were more proactive in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late March, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream DOP market rose slightly, while downstream demand was average. According to isooctanol analysts from the Business Agency, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may suffer from minor fluctuations and declines due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors.

Price trend

The recent domestic PA6 market trend is weak, with spot prices falling. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13900 yuan/ton, a decrease of – 1.65% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of caprolactam is stable this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, and cost support weakened. In addition, the market supply has increased due to the increased load of caprolactam units. Downstream, procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the key. It is expected that caprolactam may weaken in the short term, weakening its support for PA6.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was around 72%, with an overall narrow increase. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is rising, the supplier’s support for spot goods is moderate, and the factory price is reduced.

Demand: On the downstream side, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries has increased in a narrow range, but the consumption of raw materials is poor, replenishment demand is weak, on-site trading is weak, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

The PA6 market fell this week. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. The demand side tends to be rigid. Caprolactam weakened, and PA6 cost side support was moderate. Market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, with actual single trading volume shrinking. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.